2015, the beginning of ice free arctic?

[CrusaderFrank]

A blog, but many links to reputable sources. Such as the US Navy.

Arctic News

In conclusion, it looks like there will be no sea ice from August 2015 through to October 2015, while a further three months look set to reach zero in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (respectively July, November and June). Before the start of the year 2020, in other words, there will be zero sea ice for the six months from June through to November.

And, events may unfold even more rapidly, as discussed earlier at Getting the picture.


The image below, from the Naval Research Laboratory, shows the dramatic decline of sea ice thickness over the last 30 days.

Good Call!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Implications of Arctic sea ice changes for NorthAtlantic deep convection and the meridionaloverturning circulation in CCSM4-CMIP5simulations - Jahn - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Abstract


[1] Using CCSM4 climate simulations for 18502300 with four different future forcing scenarios, we show that the maximum strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) decreases proportionally to the applied CO2 forcing. This weakening of the overturning is caused by a reduction or shut down of North Atlantic (NA) deep convection due to a surface freshening. In the Labrador Sea, the surface freshening is caused by strongly increased liquid freshwater exports from the Arctic, which are largely due to the decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover. In the strongest forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the Arctic becomes summer ice-free by the end of the 21st century and year-round ice-free by the end of the 23rd century. As a result of the associated freshening, all NA deep convection ceases by 2145, which leads to a 72% (18 Sv) decrease of the MOC strength by the end of the simulation in 2300.

Well, that is definately better than 2015, however, by the last few years of melt, I find that projection to be rather optimistic. Indeed, by the estimates of the people at PIOMAS, 2015 to 2020, looks to be more realistic.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png

At the turn of the century, had someone stated that the Arctic Sea Ice would be where it is today, I would have considered them to be unduly alarmist.

That is under the most exagerated strongest forcing senario predicted by climate models....as we know, reality and models aren't exactly compatable. Expect ice free summers in the arctic about the time hell freezes over.

Prediction noted. We will get back to you on that.

Yup! Time to get to him

 

[skookerasbil]

LOL........Old Rocks has been posting up for well over 10 years that ice all over the planet is hours away from disappearing from the face of the planet. He really believes it too no matter the reality. Ten years ago, he also predicted that virtually all Americans would be driving electric cars by 2020.( hardly anybody is ). Also predicted that solar and wind would be dominating for providing America with electricity ( still only provides about 7.5% combined ).

Oh and his best prediction.........said in 2015 that the 2016 election would be decided by the issue of climate change.............

 

[Sunsettommy]

LOL........Old Rocks has been posting up for well over 10 years that ice all over the planet is hours away from disappearing from the face of the planet. He really believes it too no matter the reality. Ten years ago, he also predicted that virtually all Americans would be driving electric cars by 2020.( hardly anybody is ). Also predicted that solar and wind would be dominating for providing America with electricity ( still only provides about 7.5% combined ).

Oh and his best prediction.........said in 2015 that the 2016 election would be decided by the issue of climate change.............

Meanwhile he like so many easily weepy warmist/alarmists, ignore the reverse in the Antarctica sea ice cover, where it is going back up these days.

Now we have a new thread showing that todays Arctic sea ice levels is in the normal range of 50-85% of the Holocene time frame.

 

[whitehall]

Projecting five years ahead so you don't have to defend all the junk predictions in the past. Another slick trick. Early snow in the Northeast in November. Where did the cold air come from, Mexico? How is it possible to freeze in the lower 48 and melt ice in the Arctic? The short answer is "you gotta have faith".

 

[mamooth]

Meanwhile he like so many easily weepy warmist/alarmists, ignore the reverse in the Antarctica sea ice cover, where it is going back up these days.

Um, no.

2016-2019 all saw Antarctic ice levels below average.

2020 is showing slightly above average.

One year is not a trend.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Meanwhile he like so many easily weepy warmist/alarmists, ignore the reverse in the Antarctica sea ice cover, where it is going back up these days.

Um, no.

2016-2019 all saw Antarctic ice levels below average.

2020 is showing slightly above average.

One year is not a trend.

Another misleading claim you make since I didn't say anything about it being above or below average, I stated it is going back up:

"Meanwhile he like so many easily weepy warmist/alarmists, ignore the reverse in the Antarctica sea ice cover, where it is going back up these days. "

It has been going back up THREE YEARS in a row, after it reached the 2017 low. The NOAA backs me up:

I wonder how you fail to read so poorly....., you do that over and over.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

A blog, but many links to reputable sources. Such as the US Navy.

Arctic News

In conclusion, it looks like there will be no sea ice from August 2015 through to October 2015, while a further three months look set to reach zero in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (respectively July, November and June). Before the start of the year 2020, in other words, there will be zero sea ice for the six months from June through to November.

And, events may unfold even more rapidly, as discussed earlier at Getting the picture.


The image below, from the Naval Research Laboratory, shows the dramatic decline of sea ice thickness over the last 30 days.

Guam tipped over too

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

LOL........Old Rocks has been posting up for well over 10 years that ice all over the planet is hours away from disappearing from the face of the planet. He really believes it too no matter the reality. Ten years ago, he also predicted that virtually all Americans would be driving electric cars by 2020.( hardly anybody is ). Also predicted that solar and wind would be dominating for providing America with electricity ( still only provides about 7.5% combined ).

Oh and his best prediction.........said in 2015 that the 2016 election would be decided by the issue of climate change.............

URGENT BREAKING NEWS

SEA LEVELS RISING FAST !!!

Latest Trends
Rich Democrats buying up unprecedented numbers of Coastline Mansions

 

[skookerasbil]

C'mon now.......the climate crusaders have been screaming about an ice free Arctic for a dogs age.......d0y.