2014 US Senate predictions

[william the wie]

To reiterate my earlier point. We are not in a true recession but we are in a growth "recession" as labor force fraction growth exceeds economic and job growth. Also most of the other engines of world economic growth: the EU, Japan, China, India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil; are hitting pretty solid walls of many different types.

Africa and to a lesser extent Latin America's oil and gas boom is bringing a lot of low cost energy supply online when there is a lot of and still growing investment in high cost energy in the developed world. The expected result of that is a big uptick in economic growth and a fairly big downtick in employment. Robots, additive manufacture, desalinization plants and other forms of automation/cleaner environment are energy intensive.

Not only do minimum wages and Obamacare have some effect on labor costs but more importantly mask the declining costs of automation. 56 senate seats GOP are a much higher probability than current polls can predict. My offline buddy Kwasi did not mention the Gabon oil boom going online Sunday and since he is a native of Gabon and an analyst for Deutsche Bank I suspect it was a surprise to him too that it when the news hit that it had happened Monday or Tuesday. Things are moving that fast.

 

[Nyvin]

To reiterate my earlier point. We are not in a true recession but we are in a growth "recession" as labor force fraction growth exceeds economic and job growth. Also most of the other engines of world economic growth: the EU, Japan, China, India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil; are hitting pretty solid walls of many different types.

Africa and to a lesser extent Latin America's oil and gas boom is bringing a lot of low cost energy supply online when there is a lot of and still growing investment in high cost energy in the developed world. The expected result of that is a big uptick in economic growth and a fairly big downtick in employment. Robots, additive manufacture, desalinization plants and other forms of automation/cleaner environment are energy intensive.

Not only do minimum wages and Obamacare have some effect on labor costs but more importantly mask the declining costs of automation. 56 senate seats GOP are a much higher probability than current polls can predict. My offline buddy Kwasi did not mention the Gabon oil boom going online Sunday and since he is a native of Gabon and an analyst for Deutsche Bank I suspect it was a surprise to him too that it when the news hit that it had happened Monday or Tuesday. Things are moving that fast.

56 Senate seats would be 11 pickups...that's more pickups then in 1994, 2006, 2008, or 2010. The GOP would have to beat around 6 incumbents and lose zero races for this to happen. The last time something this massive happened was 1958, which was the largest Senate change in US history.

There is nothing on the US landscape that suggests a change this massive, unemployment is mediocre, president's approval is somewhat low but not horrid. I think your aiming a bit high.

 

[william the wie]

Could be. But the flow of jobs away from China and back to North America in general and the US in particular, began to start trickling in in Jan of this year instead of early in 2015 as McKinsey predicted in their report. ($0.99 as an ebook if memory serves.) Intel has announced the smallest chip in the world today (On Matthew's computer thread technically yesterday my time.)

So, automation is moving much faster than expected and in the retraining time that means fewer jobs.

 

[Uncensored2008]

To be honest I won't be surprised at all to see the Democrats lose the Senate. After all, no President has held a favorable Senate for 8 years since FDR, so it's not like it's out of the norm. Of course I'm sure that TONS of conservatives out there are going to label it as some confirmation of "Obama's failings" or some political rhetoric.

I would be more surprised to see the GOP pick up enough seats to where it can reasonably hold the Majority after the 2016 election, where Democrats will be heavily favored to win for a variety of reasons.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder are guilty of violations of 18 U.S. Code § 875; specifically;

{Whoever, with intent to extort from any person, firm, association, or corporation, any money or other thing of value, transmits in interstate or foreign commerce any communication containing any threat to injure the property or reputation of the addressee or of another or the reputation of a deceased person or any threat to accuse the addressee or any other person of a crime, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both. }

The extortion racket known as "Operation Choke Point" is an open violation of the law, extorting banks and financial institutions who deal with the POLITICAL enemies of the administration, absent any violation of law by either party.

It is irrefutable fact that Obama is a crook - a criminal.

SO here is a "what if." With a Republican House and Senate, they impeach Obama for this specific crime - given the iron clad proof of criminal acts by Obama and his shock collar, Holder, but with the GOP majority, they remove Obama from office. Do you see the democrats with an advantage in 2016?

I realize that the Republicans have no balls, we have a corrupt press, and an entertainment industry that would run demagoguery even beyond what they did to Bush - but IF they were to hold Obama for this blatant, irrefutable criminal act, what do you think that would do to 2016.

EMILY MILLER: DOJ accused of targeting gun industry with 'Choke Point' program | Fox News

 

[mamooth]

A fine day for Democrats, as the Tea Party continues to work diligently to elect Democratic senators.

In the Democratic-leaning but still competitive state of Iowa, the Republican primary choice is Joni Erst, a woman much like Sarah Palin, except further to the right. Hence, Iowa is now a Democratic lock.

In Mississippi, the extremely conservative incumbent Republican Thad Cochran could have won the general election in a cakewalk. But apparently he wasn't conservative enough, and the Tea Party candidate Chris McDaniel beat him in the primary. However, he didn't get 50%, so there has to be a runoff, so the Republicans spend the next 3 weeks spending all their cash and knocking each other down. And the Tea Party candidate probably wins. After that, it's a competitive race for the Democrats, who are running a conservadem candidate.

 

[HenryBHough]

After that, it's a competitive race for the Democrats, who are running a conservadem candidate.

The closest creature in nature to a "conservadem candidate" is the Hoop Snake which is visible only for very short periods.

 

[william the wie]

To be honest I won't be surprised at all to see the Democrats lose the Senate. After all, no President has held a favorable Senate for 8 years since FDR, so it's not like it's out of the norm. Of course I'm sure that TONS of conservatives out there are going to label it as some confirmation of "Obama's failings" or some political rhetoric.

I would be more surprised to see the GOP pick up enough seats to where it can reasonably hold the Majority after the 2016 election, where Democrats will be heavily favored to win for a variety of reasons.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder are guilty of violations of 18 U.S. Code § 875; specifically;

{Whoever, with intent to extort from any person, firm, association, or corporation, any money or other thing of value, transmits in interstate or foreign commerce any communication containing any threat to injure the property or reputation of the addressee or of another or the reputation of a deceased person or any threat to accuse the addressee or any other person of a crime, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both. }

The extortion racket known as "Operation Choke Point" is an open violation of the law, extorting banks and financial institutions who deal with the POLITICAL enemies of the administration, absent any violation of law by either party.

It is irrefutable fact that Obama is a crook - a criminal.

SO here is a "what if." With a Republican House and Senate, they impeach Obama for this specific crime - given the iron clad proof of criminal acts by Obama and his shock collar, Holder, but with the GOP majority, they remove Obama from office. Do you see the democrats with an advantage in 2016?

I realize that the Republicans have no balls, we have a corrupt press, and an entertainment industry that would run demagoguery even beyond what they did to Bush - but IF they were to hold Obama for this blatant, irrefutable criminal act, what do you think that would do to 2016.

EMILY MILLER: DOJ accused of targeting gun industry with 'Choke Point' program | Fox News

Politically this is dumber than dogsquat.

A) It makes martyrs for the opposition.

B) Obama makes the Ds look even less competent than they really are so impeaching him is a very bad idea.

C) Taking the blame for a Biden presidency is an additional huge cost.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Politically this is dumber than dogsquat.

A) It makes martyrs for the opposition.

Only if they fail to make their case.

For 6 years, I've been in complete agreement, but I see Operation Choke Point as crossing a line that cannot be ignored.

This is what Impeachment was meant to address.

B) Obama makes the Ds look even less competent than they really are so impeaching him is a very bad idea.

I don't agree. Obama is a cult of personality, that the democrats rally around. Criticism of Obama results in charges of racism, which are used to protect not just Obama, but ancillary characters such as Biden.

C) Taking the blame for a Biden presidency is an additional huge cost.

Valid point, but if we are a nation of laws, then there are some acts that cannot be ignored. If we are a nation where democrats are above the law, then by all means carry on.

 

[peach174]

When you take away the 36 senate races being contended in November, it leaves 34 Democrats (including those Independents that caucus with them) and 30 Republicans.

Republicans need to win 21 of 36 for the Senate majority. 20 will not do, because Biden is the tiebreaker.

I just don't see a pathway to 51 for the GOP this year, particularly when we get to know at least a couple of the really strange characters we have yet to meet who will be running as Teabagger Republicans, and who will say crazy shit that will turn people off who are moderates.

I too think Udall and Warner will hang on. Landrieu I'm not sure.

If McConnell can't hang on in Kentucky (there seems to be some Mitch-fatigue out that way) then fuggedaboudit, that means the Democrats will have had a good election night.

I'm not sure the Democrats can turn the House, but they can probably pick off another half dozen seats.

Of those 21 seats, 17 of those seats is where the Republican chances of winning are quite good. If the Republicans win those 17, then they need four more.

 

[Nyvin]

To be honest I won't be surprised at all to see the Democrats lose the Senate. After all, no President has held a favorable Senate for 8 years since FDR, so it's not like it's out of the norm. Of course I'm sure that TONS of conservatives out there are going to label it as some confirmation of "Obama's failings" or some political rhetoric.

I would be more surprised to see the GOP pick up enough seats to where it can reasonably hold the Majority after the 2016 election, where Democrats will be heavily favored to win for a variety of reasons.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder are guilty of violations of 18 U.S. Code § 875; specifically;

{Whoever, with intent to extort from any person, firm, association, or corporation, any money or other thing of value, transmits in interstate or foreign commerce any communication containing any threat to injure the property or reputation of the addressee or of another or the reputation of a deceased person or any threat to accuse the addressee or any other person of a crime, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both. }

The extortion racket known as "Operation Choke Point" is an open violation of the law, extorting banks and financial institutions who deal with the POLITICAL enemies of the administration, absent any violation of law by either party.

It is irrefutable fact that Obama is a crook - a criminal.

SO here is a "what if." With a Republican House and Senate, they impeach Obama for this specific crime - given the iron clad proof of criminal acts by Obama and his shock collar, Holder, but with the GOP majority, they remove Obama from office. Do you see the democrats with an advantage in 2016?

I realize that the Republicans have no balls, we have a corrupt press, and an entertainment industry that would run demagoguery even beyond what they did to Bush - but IF they were to hold Obama for this blatant, irrefutable criminal act, what do you think that would do to 2016.

EMILY MILLER: DOJ accused of targeting gun industry with 'Choke Point' program | Fox News

Politically this is dumber than dogsquat.

A) It makes martyrs for the opposition.

B) Obama makes the Ds look even less competent than they really are so impeaching him is a very bad idea.

C) Taking the blame for a Biden presidency is an additional huge cost.

Not to mention Impeachment is an extremely difficult process and requires 2/3s majority support in both chambers of congress. You'd have to have a very good case to be successful with impeachment of a president.

 

[Dot Com]

National Republicans say they are 'all in' for Cochran - NBC News

McDaniel has challenges, too. "He's broke, has scandal still hanging over him, national attention now on his controversies,” he said. “It's going to be expensive and outside parties will need to invest and help, but this remains a dead heat."

 

[BreezeWood]

... and six-term Sen. Thad Cochran.

does Cochran really need a 7th term ??? - why not conceed to the new generation, instead of the inevitable loss - times up for Cochran.



McConnell is running for re-election to a sixth term ...

a little different for McConnell as posibly becoming the Senate Majority Leader, but in the same lite, times (really) up for McConnell as well.

.

 

[Zander]

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the specific Senate predictions per state, post here.

Based on current evidence, here are the winners for the competitive states in my projection:
-Kentucky-McConnell barely. The state's nearly 30 points more GOP in its spread than the national average, but McConnell's approval ratings stink and Grimes could manage to win statewide.
-Georgia-Whoever wins the GOP primary, most likely Phil Gingrey. I wouldn't be surprised if Michelle Nunn wins in November, but she won't get the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, and Dem turnout always tanks in December elections in this state.
-Alaska: Sullivan should win this one fairly easily so long as Joe Miller doesn't decided to be a retard and run as an independent.
-Arkansas: Pryor's done with Cotton. Polling confirms this, and the state has moved far to the right. Should be safe.
-North Carolina: Thom Tillis. He's leading in the primary and general polling. Hagan is down against everyone and it's hard to see her recover.
-Louisiana: This is a true tossup, but I might give Landrieu the tiniest of edges on this one. This election will be guaranteed to be a runoff(Jungle primary system in LA) between Cassidy and Landrieu. Unless this state is to decide control of the Senate, I think Landrieu's shown with her durability she can barely eke it out.
-Michigan: Terry Land. The GOP does very well in Michigan during midterm elections as shown by 2010. She's a popular secretary of state and should win this one.
-South Dakota/Montana/West Virginia: These should all be safe GOP pickups, though Montana is a bit shaky thanks to the Walsh appointment to the Senate. But Walsh is corrupt enough that he should go down in flames in Novebmer.
-Iowa: Barely Braley. I think Matt Whittaker's a decent candidate, and Iowa could very well go down in a GOP wave. I have the same feelings about Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
-Virginia: Mark Warner. Despite the buzz about this race, Mark Warner's very popular and it would take a true GOP crush day to see him lose.
-Colorado: This should be a GOP pickup as Udall is quite vulnerable. But Ken ****ing Buck decides that he has to run again. Owen Hill, Amy Stephens, and other candidates would all likely win, but Ken Buck appears poised to win the primary and thus Udall is favored to win. This race deeply annoys me.

All the other races not mentioned are safe. My calculations give the GOP a 7 seat gain for control of the Senate with 52 seats.

What are your predictions?

I think Yurtle The Turtle finally becomes a highly paid lobbyist come November, with Grimes beating him, thanks to an assist from teabagger Bevins.

Pryor over Cotton, mainly because Cotton comes off as a real dope, and even Arkansans can see it. Plus, Billary are planning on campaigning for Pryor, and they are still hugely popular in the state.

Nunn in Georgia. It's very close to becoming a Blue state right now, and the teabaggers will seriously damage each other in the primary.

Udall in Colorado.

Landrieu in Louisiana.

Warner in Virginia.

 

[Zander]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

 

[Zander]

2014 will hinge on McConnell, why vote Republican and vote against the R Senate leader at the same time - one or the other will prevail and prove to be the national trend.

there is a real chance the D's can gain in both the Senate and House.

Pass the duchey.....

 

[Zander]

[QUOTE="Synthaholic]
The latest revelations will make re-election nearly impossible for Scott Walker. And his POTUS chances are now shot. Just like Christie.[/QUOTE]

MMhmmmm.....

 

[Zander]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

That is how I see it.

Then you are underestimating Obama and the Democrats. He learned from his mistake of not getting involved in the 2010 midterms. He just gave a speech talking about the need to engage and go on the offense this time.

Republicans have given Democrats all sorts of ammunition for the midterms, in every state, from Texans palling around with Ted Nugent, to Christie's corruption, to Scott Walker's corruption, to Rick Scott and his ilk denying health insurance to millions, to Snyder's bankruptcy of Detroit, to West Virginia's Republican deregulation resulting in chemically tainted water, to North Carolina's disenfranchisement of voters, and their governor being in bed with the corporation that just polluted their water.

The list goes on and on. The campaign ads write themselves.

yeah....sure.....

 

[Shrimpbox]

I tip my hat to Hoosier who uncannily predicted almost perfectly the results of this election. Way to go bro

 

[Shrimpbox]

And thanks for keeping it honest Zander. I am so glad you unearthed this and we get to see who is blowing smoke and who knows what they are talking about.