19-point enthusiasm gap: Trump supporters jazzed to vote, Biden’s ‘meh’

Winning

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Jun 7, 2020
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Getting the people to the poll has always won an election. This poll is another reason that the Dems want mail-in voting because they know people don't want to take the time to go to the polls for Sleepy Pedophile Senile Biden:


19-point enthusiasm gap: Trump supporters jazzed to vote, Biden’s ‘meh’

Likely Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a problem beyond his verbal slip-ups, the new focus on a sexual assault claim, and the lack of superstar progressive endorsements.
Much like Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, his supporters aren’t hugely excited about voting for him.

And according to the latest Emerson College Polling’s survey, Democrats appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.

Trump’s supporters have legendary loyalty and have stuck with him through the impeachment process and in the coronavirus fight. Both should have also energized his critics to vote him out of office.
But the Emerson voting enthusiasm numbers show that isn’t the case.

Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, and 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.

Biden wins the “mildly excited” category, with 29% to Trump's 22%.
 
Getting the people to the poll has always won an election. This poll is another reason that the Dems want mail-in voting because they know people don't want to take the time to go to the polls for Sleepy Pedophile Senile Biden:


19-point enthusiasm gap: Trump supporters jazzed to vote, Biden’s ‘meh’

Likely Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a problem beyond his verbal slip-ups, the new focus on a sexual assault claim, and the lack of superstar progressive endorsements.
Much like Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, his supporters aren’t hugely excited about voting for him.

And according to the latest Emerson College Polling’s survey, Democrats appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.

Trump’s supporters have legendary loyalty and have stuck with him through the impeachment process and in the coronavirus fight. Both should have also energized his critics to vote him out of office.
But the Emerson voting enthusiasm numbers show that isn’t the case.

Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, and 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.

Biden wins the “mildly excited” category, with 29% to Trump's 22%.

Those mail-in ballots give the secular progressive communists plenty of opportunities to commit voter fraud. That's why they like them so much.
 
Getting the people to the poll has always won an election. This poll is another reason that the Dems want mail-in voting because they know people don't want to take the time to go to the polls for Sleepy Pedophile Senile Biden:


19-point enthusiasm gap: Trump supporters jazzed to vote, Biden’s ‘meh’

Likely Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a problem beyond his verbal slip-ups, the new focus on a sexual assault claim, and the lack of superstar progressive endorsements.
Much like Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, his supporters aren’t hugely excited about voting for him.

And according to the latest Emerson College Polling’s survey, Democrats appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.

Trump’s supporters have legendary loyalty and have stuck with him through the impeachment process and in the coronavirus fight. Both should have also energized his critics to vote him out of office.
But the Emerson voting enthusiasm numbers show that isn’t the case.

Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, and 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.

Biden wins the “mildly excited” category, with 29% to Trump's 22%.

Washington Examiner? Dated April 29, 2020? That's funny...
 
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President Trump Will Be Reelected in November

- - - Despite many polls showing Biden as the favorite, my money would be on Trump for one main reason: he’s the incumbent, and incumbents almost always win.

Another big factor in the president’s favor is that nobody really wants Biden to be president. Trump has strong supporters, but also strong detractors. The only reason some people favor Biden is that they don’t want Trump to be reelected. The election will come down to those who support Trump versus those who oppose him. Nobody supports Biden because they think he would be a good president; they favor Biden because they oppose Trump.

This works in Trump’s favor because the election result will be determined by turnout. Voters will not change their minds about who they favor between now and November. The turnout factor favors Trump because his supporters will turn out, whereas those who favor Biden aren’t enthusiastic about him, and are more likely to stay home. So there you have it: two big factors that favor Trump.

There are factors that go the other way. One is the degree to which states push mail-in ballots over showing up at the polls. President Trump has said he’s concerned about the increased likelihood for fraud with mail-in ballots, and while there is something to that argument, the bigger factor in November’s election is that mail-in ballots make it easier to vote, which will increase turnout among those who want to vote against Trump. A voter who dislikes Trump but is not that excited about Biden will be more likely to mail in a ballot than to take the effort to show up to vote in person.

Two other factors that work against the president: one is that incumbents typically do worse when the economy is weak, and due to government programs to slow COVID-19, the economy is in considerable disarray. Another is President Trump’s policy response to COVID-19, which many view as insufficiently draconian. My guess is that this second factor will fade and maybe even turn in the president’s favor by November. It does appear at this time that states with the most restrictive policies are faring no better against the virus than those that are least restrictive.

Everything beyond that first paragraph is a second order effect in my view. Trump’s big advantage is that he is the incumbent.
 

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