I'm now seeing that the estimated number of insurgents are at over 12,000, up from previous estimates of about 5000. And it is believed that the ranks are growing at an increasing, not decreasing rate. Furthermore, 90% of the insurgents are believed to be Iraqi's, not foriegners, and this is increasing. The Baath's are also becomming organized and active.

Funding of the insurgents is also evidently at a high level, from Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Some $500 mil. in funds from Saddam are evidently available to the insurgents from Syria.

Source: CNN and FOX news channels within the last 3 hours (2-5am Sat. Morning).

I believe that the rise of insurgents is attributed the election (here in the US). The world has seen how a potential US president has denounced the war in Iraq and how the media and the Kerry campaign have provided the quagmire image to the bleeding heart American public. This has done damage to our effort in Iraq; it has only emboldened the Jihadists. Kerry needs shut up and run for president like a true American. As for the media, I think with the vast number of Americans with internet access, the media has been exposed for the most part.

__________________
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. – Adam Smith

I don't see the rise in insurgents as a bad thing. Neither was it unforseeable.

The fact is that none of the countries in the middle east want to see a democracy develop or flourish. If Iraq successfully makes the transition to democracy, then the days of the royal, or dictatorial or theocratic governments in the region are numbered.

If Iraq is succeeds in forming its own form of representative government, can Iran be far behind? Already there is evidence of mounting interest for democracy in Iran. The established governments fear this. As a result they encourage and assist the insurgency in Iraq.

All the more reason that we must see this through to the end. Failure to do so will have catastrophic consequences not only throughout the middle east, but certainly here at home as well.

Methinks Kerry only needs to perform half of your statement.. SHUT UP!

Well, he could drop dead, too, but I suppose that might be the tiniest bit drastic.

I understand that alot of the insurgents that are coming into Iraq view the war as a religious occupation. This war and many many in the past have been fought by religious fanatics. Our presence in Saudi Arabia during and since the gulf war by papa Bush enraged islamic fundamentalists. The crimes of Abu Graib, the intentional shaming of islamic men, has been countered by the abhorrent pictures of beheadings. War truly brings out the worst in us.

It is my concern that both sides on this are going to be so stubborn that the situation can only worsen. How much destruction, how much money, how many lives, is this going to cost. ????? From the US side, it will probably go on until we have stretched our resources so thin that the war will lose it support, from the Iraqi/Islamic side, I think they may finally want to get back to their everyday existence. If the Iraqis would just slow down the violence (less car bombs, less beheadings) that would give our administration the opportunity to claim a victory and get out. Victory to them will be when we leave.

With the number of insurgents (90% Iraqis) rising at it's current rate , there will be 19000 by december, and over 25,000 by the time of the elections in late January. If the report is true, and the rate is actually accelerating, there will be even more.

There are something around 90 attacks by insurgents per day, by the lections this will be nearly 200 per day. And apparently insurgents have infiltrated the Iraqi security forces which are now being trained and which we are relying heavily upon in the near future. It only takes a small percentage of jihadists willing to die within the ranks of these forces to completely immobilize them.

This is not a good thing. Democracy in Iraq is looking less and less likely by the day.

Have you calculated how many years it be until everyone on the planet is an Iraqi insurgent?

The new report is 10 weeks after the old report, and shows an increase in insurgents of some 5-8 thousand from 5-7 thousand to 12-13 thousand. According to the news reports, the insurgency is growing at an accelerating rate, but I held the figure constant and roughly extrapolated the numbers from the the mid point values.

It is obvious to me that they intend to stop the elections in Iraq, or make them uncredible.

"uncredible?" Your posts are difficult enough to read without illiterate un-words. Get a dictionary.

Your description of a possible future increase in the number of Iraqi terrorists as a simple mathematical progression is incredible.

You are right, I should have used "non-credible". The price of typing as fast as most people talk.

Hmmm.. the reports indicate that the rate of growth of the insurgency is increasing - so wouldn't this means my estimates are most likely LOW?

What's "increadible" about that?

I actually have to explain this to you?

Your "logic" is obviously flawed. It assumes that what has happened in the past categorically determines what will happen in the future.

For example, the first person that passes you is a 4 ft. tall child, the next is a 5 ft. tall woman, and then a 6 ft. tall man. According to your logic, the next person to pass will necessarily be 7 ft. tall.

Your original assertion was: "With the number of insurgents (90% Iraqis) rising at it's current rate , there will be 19000 by december, and over 25,000 by the time of the elections in late January." Your statement entails categorical necessity and is therefore incredible.

Also a fact little reported is that the insurgents are being killed by the Iraqi and American armies at a average rate of 1,254 per day. At that rate there will be a total number of dead insurgents accounting up to an almost 123,426 dead by election day in January election. Probably this is a low estimate.

Did you really believe that the US Army, Marines and Iraqi armies are sitting on their hands playing tittly winks?

I'd like to see where you get that figure. I followed the kills data pretty closely for a while and on a typical day, 30-200 insurgents were killed, and perhaps an equal number of civilians.

It is pretty far fetched that 2-3 months ago there were 5,000+ insurgents, and today there are 12000+, and that in those sixity days there have been some 80,000 insurgents killed.

Do you really think that the US army is keeping a running diary of insurgents kllled (body count) for the liberal media like in the Vietnam War?

I'd like to know where you found that kill data and perhaps an equal number of civilians. Did you read that data in the Enquirer at your local grocery store counter?

When the Marines and Army lose their friends and foreign contractors and Iraqi policmen are murdered by foreign insurgents who entered Iraq from neighboriing Arab countries, did you really think that the US military commanders limit their daily kill from jet warplanes and helicopters to a few hundred murderers and just for kicks, a bunch of civilian Iraqis?

Did you just get off a turnip truck?

I disagree. Vehemently.

__________________
sweet and sour like a tangerine
fresh like a box of krispy kreme