Zogby: McCain Retakes the Lead

[jillian]

Because unfortunately for Barack Obama, there are a lot of white democrats who won't vote for him.

Unless Obama has a significant lead in the polls on election day....in the neighborhood of 8-10 points.....he'll lose.

I think you're off base. You think that many people are going to lie to pollsters? I think that's goofy.

 

[Mauser]

I think you're off base. You think that many people are going to lie to pollsters? I think that's goofy.

If it hadn't happened in past elections, you might be right to think it goofy.

But it has.

 

[WillowTree]

you do of course remember the exit polls of 2004?

 

[Jon]

RCP average: Obama +3.2

I'm glad someone else gets it. I get tired of all the "OMG OBAMA IS UP BY 9 IN THE POLLS" posts from Bobo and jillian. The truth is he's up by 9 in ONE poll, and down in one, and tied in one. It's all over the place.

Oh, and in the poll he's up by 9 in, 38% of those polled were Dems, while only 28% were Repubs, and 29% were Independents. Of the Independents, 46% said they usually lean Democratic, and only 28% said they usually lean Republican. The poll itself wasn't biased, but clearly the people being polled are.

The truth is, everyone on this board is acting like a bunch of fucking idiots, no matter where the polls put their candidate.

 

[Ninja]

Gallup's has them tied.

McCain's +3 in ONE DAY! Keep in mind it's a 3-day average - McCain must have had incredible numbers last night

 

[Mad Scientist]

Might be that hiring karl rove and the head swiftboater and picking palin backfired on mccain who really did have a shot at crossover votes.

Oh you mean the "Truthboaters". Aren't they great? They served in Vietnam you know. God bless em'!

 

[Silence]

If McCain wins Friday's debate (yes, I think there'll be a debate) then likely McCain wins the election. Historically the winner of the first debate pulls ahead and wins the election. That being said anything is possible and that is certainly not where the Democrats or Obama thought this would be with 40 days to go - let alone sitting at a table with President Bush instead of out campaigning.

maybe you could let John Kerry in on that secret.. He won all three debates with Bush and still lost the election.

and yes grasp that ONE poll that show McCain ahead... I'm sure it comforts you like a warm blanket.

 

[Caligirl]

The real problem for Obama is that most of the polls have consistently been within the margin of error.

If it stays that way.......it'll translate into a McCain win on election day.

And...

you do of course remember the exit polls of 2004?

The polls may be wrong, or the final count may be wrong. You don't know which. I would bet the final count is wrong.

An election whistleblower who is a Republican, a nationally known data security and computer architecture expert, and an Ohio resident has filed a sworn affidavit in federal court that describes how Republican Party consultants in 2004 built an electronic vote counting network in Ohio that could have stolen votes to re-elect the president.

The whistleblower, Stephen Spoonamore, who has run or held senior technology positions in six technology companies, and whose clients have included MasterCard, American Express, NBC-GE, and federal agencies including the State Department and the Navy, said Mike Connell, a longtime Republican Party computer networking contractor, "agrees that the electronic voting systems in the US are not secure" and told Spoonamore in 2007 "that he (Connell) is afraid some of the more ruthless partisans of the GOP may have exploited systems he in part worked on for this purpose."

AxisofLogic/ Civil Rights/Human Rights

 

[Paulie]

If McCain wins Friday's debate (yes, I think there'll be a debate) then likely McCain wins the election. Historically the winner of the first debate pulls ahead and wins the election. That being said anything is possible and that is certainly not where the Democrats or Obama thought this would be with 40 days to go - let alone sitting at a table with President Bush instead of out campaigning.

If Leher calls McCain on his statement about the fundamentals of the economy being strong, I'd say McCain's pretty much screwed. Pretty hard to defend a statement like that in the face of this economic crisis where even the president is saying we're on the brink of a meltdown.

Right now no one really cares about Iraq per se, so his strong point is probably going to be unusable.