Zogby 10/31/08 - Obama +7

[DavidS]

Zogby International

I wonder why McCain didn't mention Zogby again and why Paperboy didn't post this.

 

[USJD]

The polls are all over the place. One must look at the sampling and how the poll is conducted and what the overall trend is in polls. Real Clear Politics takes all the national polls and averages the newest ten, as one new poll is added the oldest one is dropped. Right now the race appears to be tightening.

 

[DavidS]

The polls are all over the place. One must look at the sampling and how the poll is conducted and what the overall trend is in polls. Real Clear Politics takes all the national polls and averages the newest ten, as one new poll is added the oldest one is dropped. Right now the race appears to be tightening.

Yeah, I agree. The race as to who's going to win Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi and Montana is tightening, definitely.

Other than that, Obama's lead has increased over the past few days.

Zogby, Rasmussen, Pew, Quinnipeac and Gallup have all showed Obama gaining ground in the national polls.

 

[bk1983]

Yeah, I agree. The race as to who's going to win Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi and Montana is tightening, definitely.

Other than that, Obama's lead has increased over the past few days.

Zogby, Rasmussen, Pew, Quinnipeac and Gallup have all showed Obama gaining ground in the national polls.

In 2000 the polls 1 week prior showed Gore and Bush dead even. The race finished nearly dead even. In 2004 polls showed Bush up by 2 he won by 2.5. The polls are a good indicator of the final result.

 

[The Paperboy]

In 2000 the polls 1 week prior showed Gore and Bush dead even. The race finished nearly dead even. In 2004 polls showed Bush up by 2 he won by 2.5. The polls are a good indicator of the final result.

That's true if the models are correct. Guess we'll know in a few days.

 

[DavidS]

In 2000 the polls 1 week prior showed Gore and Bush dead even. The race finished nearly dead even. In 2004 polls showed Bush up by 2 he won by 2.5. The polls are a good indicator of the final result.

Completely agree. This race will be a 6 or 7 point win for Obama. Then again one must look at how little the Republicans have been turning out in the early voting states. Except for Colorado, Democrats are outnumbering the Republicans nearly 2-1 in turnout. If the Republicans just sit at home and don't vote... that will be a catastrophe for the Republican Party. They won't vote for Obama, but they also won't vote for McCain. I think this is McCain's akhilies heel. The base never supported McCain and McCain had hard times winning a lot of traditionally conservative states when running against Huckabee earlier this year.

You can look at whose base is more energized by their candidate: McCain or Obama. McCain reminds me of Kerry in 2004... yeah, he's a good guy, he makes a couple of good points, but a lot of the base still likes Bush. That's why Bush's approval ratings are in upper 20s and not in the single digits. McCain trying to throw Bush under the bus, is also throwing his base under the bus. They're tired and disgusted of the way the GOP has been acting, they initially liked Palin but when the honeymoon was over they wanted a divorce and they never really liked McCain to begin with.

Whereas Obama has his base more energized than they've been in 40-something years. The right-wingers keep saying "You know when you run into an Obama supporter" because they're so energized and excited about Obama.

Obama's base is going to turn out in record numbers not only because of how energized they are, but because of his massive volunteer army helping get out the vote. McCain's may stay home. If that happens, this election is going to be lopsided.

Again, just look at the numbers. This isn't a poll, this isn't a bias, these are the hard numbers coming out of early voting. And what's even better is that Obama's core, the Northeast, New York, Boston, Rhode Island, Vermont, etc. hasn't even voted yet, while most of the red states have.

 

[Andrew2382]

Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)

Zogby is great