Your predictions for the first months of the new year

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Baruch Menachem, Dec 25, 2009.

  1. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    I am out there looking for a job myself right now. So i want there to be lots of them out there. It does not look good, especially here in Oregon.

    But I am looking at what is coming down the pike for job producing businesses, and I think we are in for a tsunami of pain in the first months of the new year. The Bush tax cuts expire Jan 1 for starters, in addition most states (including Oregon) will be raising employment taxes in order to pay for unemployment insurance. Some states, like Florida, will be raising these taxes to 10 times their current levels.

    So what do you think will happen to the economy next month, quarter? I think we will see a jump in unemployment to 14% because of the taxes and the fact that most business are still holding on to extra staff. All these guys will get dumped.

    If 0bamacare passes, you can count on even more job losses.
     
  2. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    I have heard nothing about the results of the Bush tax cuts expiring. But you can bet there will be repercussions, none of them good.
    There is nothing to encourage businesses to hire more people. Just the opposite. I do think overtime and temp workers will see some increase. I also expect the Fed to begin raising rates in Jan/Feb. A rate of 1% will cause a tanking in the stock market as fixed income investments become more attractive.
    But gov't and union jobs will be the growth industry for the next year, until the GOP gets back in power after Nov.
    Hatzlocho rabo.
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Since the only thing that appears to be recovering is the stock market, either the economy does finally start bounding up, or we are going to have a fantastic market correction that will test the March Lows. Ninety percent of the companies in America are earning a fraction of what they earned two years ago, yet their stock prices are far higher than their earnings.

    I always point people to Ford. There is absoultely no reason for their stock to be worth more than a penny. They have no real earnings other than from the billions of stocks they have been offering for sale. They then list that as income, just like Bernie Madolf. They are running the most open Ponzi Scheme in American history and people are buying into it.

    One of these days the accounts will balance and F will be a thing of memory. F is going to F a lot of people.
     
  4. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Actually, any increase in medical care should result in more medical professionals being hired. That should be a positive. More people will have prescriptions that they can actually have filled, so the drug stores and pharmacies will do very well. Get a job in one of those fields, and you are guaranteed a job provided you don't have issues that make you an unreliable employee.

    The expense of medical care to the employers of small companies above fifty employees might cause them to downsize to under fifty employees. That remains to be seen. (I think that is the right number. Correct me if I am wrong.)
     
  5. Immanuel
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    Immanuel Gold Member

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    My prediction is that it sucks to be unemployed next month.

    If you are job hunting... good luck!

    I wish you the best in your job search... but one thing I would say is keep plugging away. Don't give up. You will find something. It may take some time, but keep at it.

    Immie
     
  6. smithfix
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    smithfix smithfix

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    As a small business owner I will tell you this. I will not risk any new hiring till this admin. is gone (if I can survive it in the first place). Nor will I risk new equipment purchaces which I generally make at this time of year, I may need that capital just to survive.
    Can you follow the effects of tens of thousands of business owners like me doing the same? I assure you they are.
    The instability of the business environment will stifle investment and hiring.
    If anyone out there does not believe in Supply Side (trickle down) economics perhaps you will learn to believe in TRICKLE DOWN POVERTY.
     
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  7. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    The foolishness of these new government programs is unparalleled in American history. There appears to be a total lack of understanding of economics by the Obama administration.
     
  8. rdean
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    rdean rddean

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    Bush and the Republicans cut taxes on the rich by 1.3 trillion while he was in office. How did that work out?
     
  9. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    Brought us out of recession in '01 and led to 7 years of sub 5% unemployment and sub 3% inflation while increasing revenue to the treasury.
    Why do you ask?
     

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