Your Prediction as of 10/18

What will the result of the Presidential Elections


  • Total voters
    52
  • Poll closed .
10/30: Obama wins well over 270 but under 299 in line with Nate Sliver's 75% prediction.

For those that are sure Obama is doomed, I will remind you of the thing I said at the start of this, it is very, very, very hard to unseat an incumbent president.

You either need an awful incumbent or a dynamic challenger. Obama is not awful (no matter how much you believe otherwise) and Romney is not that dynamic (which I doubt anyone would dispute).

For the truly undecideds, the decision in the ballot box will truly come down to a known quantity or an unknown entity who has yet to articulate a clear vision for this country.
 
Also, at this point I don't think Polls are terribly useful. I think everyone has polling fatigue. Hell, I am blatantly partisan and wouldn't even waste my time talking to a pollster to help the candidate I support.
 
You're predicting WI, OH, NH go red? Certainly not impossible.

Exactly.

Wisconsin is a lock for Romney,
Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.
If that's true, the way that VA, NC, FLA, CO & NH are trending, Vinnie won't need Ohio.

The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it. I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO. Really doubt he will take NH and VA.

Especially after the storm.
 
Exactly.

Wisconsin is a lock for Romney,
Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.
If that's true, the way that VA, NC, FLA, CO & NH are trending, Vinnie won't need Ohio.

The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it. I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO. Really doubt he will take NH and VA.

Especially after the storm.
All of those states are trending Romney...That's the fact.
 
Sort of wish Truthmatters was here to yell at us right wingers.
Saw her name in a post a while back and said she was banned.
I sort of miss her calling me an idiot...

That's all....
 
If that's true, the way that VA, NC, FLA, CO & NH are trending, Vinnie won't need Ohio.

The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it. I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO. Really doubt he will take NH and VA.

Especially after the storm.
All of those states are trending Romney...That's the fact.

Until they aren't or the clock runs out.......
 
Exactly.

Wisconsin is a lock for Romney, Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.

I'll say this about Wisconsin. WI should be a lock for Romney. It's been one of the big unreported issues of the election that Romney has been consistently down in WI when he should have easily been crushing Obama there. The problem is that no one, not even Rasmussen, has Romney up there. The best he's showing now in WI is a tie. So for some reason I just don't get, WI is a tie.

Obama could lose WI, and win the election, but to be honest, if WI comes back as a Romney state, I'm going to go to bed thinking Romney won.

We won't know Ohio until the 17th unfortunately. I agree that Romney could easily carry New Hampshire. Ohio is more tricky.
 
The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it. I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO. Really doubt he will take NH and VA.

Especially after the storm.

NH I wouldn't even dream of calling now. I'd thought that was a solid Blue state for the President, but now, I'm not at all certain.

I will be VERY surprised if VA goes to Obama. He was up there, and VA has been trending blue, but after the first debate Obama dropped behind and stayed behind. RCP has it as a tie, but that's based on exactly one poll with Obama +4 balancing out two with Romney at +2. I tend to think VA is going to fall Red this time.

Should VA go to Obama, I will go to bed early on election night. VA going blue means Romney failed to make any serious inroads into Obama's firewall of states. Everyone expected Obama to lose IN and NC this time around, but Romney can't win without flipping some further states.
 
The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it. I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO. Really doubt he will take NH and VA.

Especially after the storm.
All of those states are trending Romney...That's the fact.

Until they aren't or the clock runs out.......

That's the biggest issue Romney is facing. Whatever momentum he has started to slow down after debate 2. He covered a lot of ground against Obama after the first debate, but now he's slowing down in the polls and he still hasn't closed the gaps. Narrowed yes, but closed? No.

I strongly suspect there's literally no momentum on either side now, and with Sandy dominating the news there isn't a lot of chance to really try to pick back up the momentum. I suspect things are mostly frozen in place with Obama up by razor thin margins.

Razor thin margins a week out don't equal victory, but they also don't herald defeat either.
 
Exactly.

Wisconsin is a lock for Romney, Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.

I'll say this about Wisconsin. WI should be a lock for Romney. It's been one of the big unreported issues of the election that Romney has been consistently down in WI when he should have easily been crushing Obama there. The problem is that no one, not even Rasmussen, has Romney up there. The best he's showing now in WI is a tie. So for some reason I just don't get, WI is a tie.

Obama could lose WI, and win the election, but to be honest, if WI comes back as a Romney state, I'm going to go to bed thinking Romney won.
I've been saying since the Walker recall, WI is the canary in the coal mine.

Regardless of the tie that Rasmussen has the state listed as, Boiking's only +50% showing in the polls is the obviously biased NBC/Marist poll.

I'm well north of I-94 and have a feeling that the (R) turnout "up north" will be off the charts.
 
I've been saying since the Walker recall, WI is the canary in the coal mine.

Regardless of the tie that Rasmussen has the state listed as, Boiking's only +50% showing in the polls is the obviously biased NBC/Marist poll.

I'm well north of I-94 and have a feeling that the (R) turnout "up north" will be off the charts.

True, but the Democrats are highly motivated now too. The Walker recall was plagued by the fact that the Democrats got so fired up to recall Walker they forgot to actually find a decent candidate. But we'll see. Like I said, I find it very surprising that Romney isn't at +5 or more in the the land of milk and cheese.
 
All of those states are trending Romney...That's the fact.

Until they aren't or the clock runs out.......

That's the biggest issue Romney is facing. Whatever momentum he has started to slow down after debate 2. He covered a lot of ground against Obama after the first debate, but now he's slowing down in the polls and he still hasn't closed the gaps. Narrowed yes, but closed? No.

I strongly suspect there's literally no momentum on either side now, and with Sandy dominating the news there isn't a lot of chance to really try to pick back up the momentum. I suspect things are mostly frozen in place with Obama up by razor thin margins.

Razor thin margins a week out don't equal victory, but they also don't herald defeat either.

I think, short of a Bush/Katrina replay, Obama will regain in Sandy simply by looking presidential.

Though if he loses, it's because he (strangely) blew the first debate so badly.
 
Until they aren't or the clock runs out.......

That's the biggest issue Romney is facing. Whatever momentum he has started to slow down after debate 2. He covered a lot of ground against Obama after the first debate, but now he's slowing down in the polls and he still hasn't closed the gaps. Narrowed yes, but closed? No.

I strongly suspect there's literally no momentum on either side now, and with Sandy dominating the news there isn't a lot of chance to really try to pick back up the momentum. I suspect things are mostly frozen in place with Obama up by razor thin margins.

Razor thin margins a week out don't equal victory, but they also don't herald defeat either.

I think, short of a Bush/Katrina replay, Obama will regain in Sandy simply by looking presidential.

Though if he loses, it's because he (strangely) blew the first debate so badly.

If he loses it will be because the majority of people woke up in time to realize what a putz he is and are fed up with his inability to lead, his policies, and his lies.
 
That's the biggest issue Romney is facing. Whatever momentum he has started to slow down after debate 2. He covered a lot of ground against Obama after the first debate, but now he's slowing down in the polls and he still hasn't closed the gaps. Narrowed yes, but closed? No.

I strongly suspect there's literally no momentum on either side now, and with Sandy dominating the news there isn't a lot of chance to really try to pick back up the momentum. I suspect things are mostly frozen in place with Obama up by razor thin margins.

Razor thin margins a week out don't equal victory, but they also don't herald defeat either.

I think, short of a Bush/Katrina replay, Obama will regain in Sandy simply by looking presidential.

Though if he loses, it's because he (strangely) blew the first debate so badly.

If he loses it will be because the majority of people woke up in time to realize what a putz he is and are fed up with his inability to lead, his policies, and his lies.

Fanciful thinking by the righties.

In fact, you'd better hope that isn't the case. If it is, the fact that this race is even close, only illustrates that no one likes your side either.
 
Real Clear Politics no toss ups map.

The only state I disagree with in that map is Iowa. Rasmussen is the only organization showing Mitt up in Ohio. At this point literally everyone else is showing Obama up, and that he's been up for a while. Wisconsin all poll results show Obama up, except Rasmussen which shows a tie. All poll results show Obama up in Nevada.

I'm standing by my Obama 275 electoral votes and losing the popular with a court battle to follow.

For some other looks:

http://electoral-vote.com/
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012
 
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A lot of the pollsters are oversampling democratics by upwards of +6 - +8...I don't believe the spread is going to be that high.

True, and in some of the states given to Obama on these no toss up maps, Obama has not yet broken 50% in any poll. So the likely undecided split is still a factor.

I'm not confident enough in an Obama victory that I'd bet any money on it. I think anyone that is that confident is just plain crazy. I would say the same about Romney too. He absolutely could win, but I wouldn't be any more likely to bet on him that I would on Obama.
 

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