Years ending in 7 or 0 tend to be bad for the stock market

[william the wie]

We had a mildly atypical year due to Trump slashing regulation. This year is going to see a larger than expected out migration from not just the blue wall but also blue districts due to higher taxes and higher cost of living making 2018 and 2020 less predictable. That will make GOTV moves more important and the usual results of a protest vote should cause a market crash.

 

[tyroneweaver]

Ya has something to do with the Jewish calendar. They call the bad year a sabbatical.

 

[william the wie]

I thought only Jewish sabbatical years counted, Sept 2021-Sept 2022
2007-2008 was rough and 2000-2001 too

 

[MarathonMike]

I've heard of the xxx7 and xxx0 trend, but what would be the reason? Is it a numerical coincidence or is there some economic macro cycle driving it?

 

[william the wie]

I've heard of the xxx7 and xxx0 trend, but what would be the reason? Is it a numerical coincidence or is there some economic macro cycle driving it?

It's driven by the census and reapportionment. The xxx7 marker is declining in value according to "The Stock Trader's Almanac" . I would assume that it is getting easier to get the necessary data organized and analyzed over time. But as Obama demonstrated vetting and fund raising on the local level is key. The D bench has been crippled by Obama and Hillary sucking up the cash from multi-millionaires. With the tax bill on the books that has gone from bad to worst. Congressional and state house races are going to become cage matches in the Blue Wall for the next decade, 2022-2032. Sessions threat against sanctuary cities is supposed to be a criminal investigation and that is why 2020 and 2030 should be particularly bad years in the Stock Market because the usual D suspects will often be at best paroled felons in states with much smaller budgets due to job loss.

 

[Picaro]

Business, and political fads, have always run in cycles. there is a book out a while back called The Great Wave, iirc, that discusses several of them over many centuries, and the cumulative effects of what happened when some of them all decides to tank at the same time. There are lots of odd factoids about the stock markets, don't know if they're just coincidental to exact years, though, but the cyclic patterns are more or less there, at least going by past data. Predicting them is another story; even the great economist Maynard Keynes lost his ass in the stock market making a bad guess. What he thought was going to happen did indeed happen, his timing just sucked. Despite all the hate and idiotic propaganda directed at him, he was an excellent fund manager for his university when making conservative investment decisions, and regularly got 12% + returns for the uni's trust fund, even in Depression years. It's just trendy to pretend he was some sort of commie and incompetent loser with some of the wingtards, most of whom don't know squat themselves, is all.

Imho, the 'market' is heavily over-capitalized and the economy too concentrated for the stock markets to be reflections of the real economy, and that concentration trend has been on steriods since the crash. Only a tiny handful of companies cause big movements in stock prices, and too much cash is concentrated at the top of the pyramid. The recent frenzy over the Bit Coin Ponzi scheme is just another manifestation of the real lack of productive investment outlets for surplus cash. I do thank all the tards who jumped into that idiocy for driving up the value of my gold hedges, though, a windfall I wasn't expecting, and thanks for the new truck I bought with some of it.

 

[william the wie]

The problem with all economists from Smith on is that it is more profitable to mine useful data than to publish it.

 

[Moonglow]

We had a mildly atypical year due to Trump slashing regulation. This year is going to see a larger than expected out migration from not just the blue wall but also blue districts due to higher taxes and higher cost of living making 2018 and 2020 less predictable. That will make GOTV moves more important and the usual results of a protest vote should cause a market crash.

1929......

 

[Moonglow]

I've heard of the xxx7 and xxx0 trend, but what would be the reason? Is it a numerical coincidence or is there some economic macro cycle driving it?

The Biblical business cycle...

 

[Picaro]

The problem with all economists from Smith on is that it is more profitable to mine useful data than to publish it.

the only Economists I have any respect for are those in the field of econometrics, particularly those digging into the historical record in detail. the rest are all for hire and want to be popular and well paid talking heads and the like, more like show biz than science and objective analysts. See the last three Federal Reserve Chairmen for how that works, all of them perfectly willing to change their opinions to whatever pays them the most.

 

[william the wie]

Yeah but even the econometricians have to deal with the lack of data in the historical record. Take for example the premium women are willing to pay for knit/crocheted ware. Where in the world can you dig up the necessary data?