WTF Is A Jobless Recovery?????

[mudwhistle]

We keep hearing all of this talk about "A Jobless Recovery".

Somebody explain to me how losing jobs by the millions spells R.E.C.O.V.E.R.Y???

For three years the Democrats tried to convince us how bad the economy was. 4 years ago the economy was churning. Back then job growth was good, productivity was up, inflation was in check, earnings were up....yet for the last 3 years the Dems told us the economy was fucked up. Now Obama wants to tell us that the Recession is over.

They've been extending Unemployment benefits for almost 4 years I think in anticipation of what they planned on doing. Which was spending us into massive debt and taxing us into oblivion.

Allen Greenspan said this morning on Meet The Press that what effects job growth more then just about anything is uncertainty.

Employers want to stay in business but this administration gives them every indication that their profits are going to be taken away. Being successful will result in punishment from the government. So what we are left with is fear in the marketplace.

Nobody in their right mind would expand or start a business in today's climate. ....As a result jobs are being lost in record numbers.

Explain to me how that can be called a recovery.

What I think is this....Democrats spend their careers throwing out crazy ideas hoping that the GOP will object to it. They use wedge-issues to divide us. When they finally get into power they spend like a sailor in a Mexican whorehouse. They screw everything up that they touch and blame it on the opposition. When they lose power they do everything in their power to prevent progress. They know the opposition will try to do the right thing so they just wait until the problems they caused are fixed then go back to screwing everything up again.

This is the dilemma we are faced with. A political party that is not an honest broker. They have no intention of solving problems in this country because it doesn't help them when they do. Their platform is based on entitlements, stupid causes like saving Polar Bears, helping little babies once their born with health care [yet killing them in the womb with taxpayer funds]. Saving the planet even if it bankrupts all of us.

The welfare of Americans isn't in their plans. That is why they talk about a "Jobless Recovery" like it's a good thing. If you have a good job and productive lives you won't need them anymore. You're liable to vote for the GOP to hang on to your pay rather then give it to them so they can spend it on their silly causes.

 

[midcan5]

Economics is pop psychology at its finest. Explain bubbles? or Stagflation? Or why firing people in a corporation raises the stock value? Explain the negative sense many have concerning the economy today given we missed a second great depression? I'll share one bit of advice, my wife is out there today contributing to the economy, why don't the rest of you go out and do same.

Stagflation - Definition of Stagflation

"On the day when Saddam was caught, the bond market went up in the morning, and it went down in the afternoon. So here we had two headlines — "Bond Market Up on Saddam News," and in the afternoon, "Bond Market Down on Saddam News" — and then they had in both cases very convincing explanations of the moves. Basically if you can explain one thing and its opposite using the same data you don't have an explanation. It takes a lot of courage to keep silent." Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Edge: LEARNING TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

 

[Polk]

Pretty simple to explain the concept. The economy is considered to be in recovery at the point where GDP growth is positive, but that doesn't mean job growth has returned. Historically this wasn't the case, but for some uncertain reason, it's became common in recent decades (technological change is the most likely culprit). Look back at the 1992 election. George H.W. Bush was hammered with "it's the economy, stupid", but the recession had actually been over for a while. The economy started growing in March of 1991, but since unemployment didn't peak until mid-1992, voters were still feeling the pain and punished him for it at the polls. Same thing with the burst of the dot-com bubble. Even though it was a pretty mild recession, job growth lagged. While growth resumed in November of 2001, the unemployment peak wasn't until almost two years later (June of 2003).

 

[mudwhistle]

Pretty simple to explain the concept. The economy is considered to be in recovery at the point where GDP growth is positive, but that doesn't mean job growth has returned. Historically this wasn't the case, but for some uncertain reason, it's became common in recent decades (technological change is the most likely culprit). Look back at the 1992 election. George H.W. Bush was hammered with "it's the economy, stupid", but the recession had actually been over for a while. The economy started growing in March of 1991, but since unemployment didn't peak until mid-1992, voters were still feeling the pain and punished him for it at the polls. Same thing with the burst of the dot-com bubble. Even though it was a pretty mild recession, job growth lagged. While growth resumed in November of 2001, the unemployment peak wasn't until almost two years later (June of 2003).

However it's impossible to claim that we are in recovery till the jobs losses reverse and begin coming back. We haven't even reached the depths of what will soon be 18% or more.

I think Obama is trying to claim too soon that the economy is recovering. Once his health care bill goes through it will cause another dip....and if he continues to go through the EPA imposing restrictions on companies in favor of fake science....I don't think we've hit bottom yet despite what he says.

The biggest problem I see is a lack of credibility as far as the White House is concerned. They've lost the trust of most of the American people. That is the root of all of this.

 

[Polk]

And now this is where we dive into the dishonest. In every previous recession, the standard has been the return of GDP growth, but now you want to slide the scale and say that growth doesn't matter, only job creation does. Fair enough, but that would be an argument for all recessions, not just the current one. Ditto with your claim that unemployment is at 18 percent. That's just simply not true.

 

[The Rabbi]

As much as it pains me, Polk is right. Recession is measured by GDP. Of course I don't buy that the economy is recovering either. One component of GDP is government spending and that is the only component that is rising. That doesn't make for a healthy economy. And in other recoveries unemployment had leveled off. Here it appears to be rising still.
I suspect January will see some more big bankruptcies and we will be back in the tank again.

 

[Liability]

WTF Is A Jobless Recovery?????

* * * *

It is an oxymoron deliberately crafted to conceal the truth.

It is a non-existent thing. Fantasy. Make-believe.

It is just another liberal Democrat lie.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

It works like this: when a Republican is in power saying "it's the worst economy since FDR's Great Depression!!!" is a bad thing; when a Democrat is in power it becomes a good thing because it causes government to expand

 

[Zander]

It is the economic equivalent of "fake but accurate". See Dan Rather for an in depth explanation of the concept.

 

[The Rabbi]

It is the economic equivalent of "fake but accurate". See Dan Rather for an in depth explanation of the concept.

Except EVERY recovery is a "jobless" recovery since employment is the last thing to rise. Usually overtime and temp work will come first.
I remember Dems taunting Bush in 2001/2002 over his "jobless recovery" and "McJobs" job creation. It was false then,it's false now.

 

[Zander]

It is the economic equivalent of "fake but accurate". See Dan Rather for an in depth explanation of the concept.

Except EVERY recovery is a "jobless" recovery since employment is the last thing to rise. Usually overtime and temp work will come first.
I remember Dems taunting Bush in 2001/2002 over his "jobless recovery" and "McJobs" job creation. It was false then,it's false now.

I listened to the MSM talk down the economy for 8 straight yrs with Bush. Now they are talking it up for Carter, I mean Obama.

 

[Toronado3800]

Jobless recoveries exist.

Terrible McJobs exist.

High unemployment and an increasing GDP can be a sign of a few things:
*technology has improved efficiency and not as many employees are needed. (imagine if the 3 least automated widget makers went out of business leaving only the 2 most automated/most efficient left. Them 2 will expand to make the same number of widgets previously needed when GDP levels but w/o the same number of employees the original 5 companies had)
*Government spending has increased.

My bet is a lot on the second, a little on the first.

 

[rdean]

The financial markets trade overseas so when they recover, it doesn't necessarily translate in jobs.

Due to Republican deregulation, many of the jobs that were formerly American have moved overseas to drive up profits since those countries don't have to bother with things like health insurance or minimum wage. It's great for CEO's but not for everyone else.

Worse, Republicans feel that investing in education is a waste of money because institutions of education have been taken over by the "liberal elite" and a degree is only a "piece of paper".

The truth is that only through education can we hope to compete. I know of a machine shop that lost much of it's business making railway spikes. That business was moved to Mexico. They sent many of their machinists out for further training and upgraded their equipment to make high precision parts for everyone from the medical industry to NASA. They are still struggling, but are way more optimistic than they were.

That is what has to happen here. Education needs to be a priority. We have to smother the dissent of those who want to push idiot notions such as "magical creation" over science. Just that one notion has been incredibly destructive delegitimizing science for many of an entire generation.

 

[uscitizen]

Jobless recovery means the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

 

[Toro]

A jobless recovery is when the economy is growing but isn't growing fast enough to create enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate. The number of jobs create can be growing and the unemployment rate remain high because the population is constantly growing. If the number of jobs created does not outpace the growth in population, the rate of unemployment will remain high.

 

[mudwhistle]

And now this is where we dive into the dishonest. In every previous recession, the standard has been the return of GDP growth, but now you want to slide the scale and say that growth doesn't matter, only job creation does. Fair enough, but that would be an argument for all recessions, not just the current one. Ditto with your claim that unemployment is at 18 percent. That's just simply not true.

Sorry, that doesn't wash.

First of all most of the growth that has been reported is based on temporary productivity not in something that occured naturally. Also, economists have checked and the statistics aren't even close to being accurate. They cooked up a bunch of numbers to give us a false impression. Even bad numbers are reported as positive signs by CBS and other pro-Obama media outlets.

The Cash For Clunkers program was included which ended months ago.

Overtime was added into number of jobs falsely inflating the numbers the Obama Administration counted as jobs created or saved.

Contract work...which is temporary at best was included as saved jobs. These are workers the administration cannot count as saved jobs. When the contract ends in a few months so will the production from those jobs.

Obama himself said that government can't fix the economy...it has to come from the private-sector....the same private-sector that he's currently in the process of decimating.

 

[uscitizen]

Over 70% of our economy depends on consumer spending. No jobs = no spending = no real recovery.

We can of course have GDP growth thru higher oil and stock prices.

For the GDP to grow it just means we are paying more for stuff.

 

[mudwhistle]

It is the economic equivalent of "fake but accurate". See Dan Rather for an in depth explanation of the concept.

Except EVERY recovery is a "jobless" recovery since employment is the last thing to rise. Usually overtime and temp work will come first.
I remember Dems taunting Bush in 2001/2002 over his "jobless recovery" and "McJobs" job creation. It was false then,it's false now.

I don't think you're thinking clearly.

Jobless Recovery appears to be a new term invented for the current cycle. I don't remember ever hearing it before.

They had to think of some way to put a positive spin on Obama's lousy performance and that's the best they could do.

Another thing....at it's worst the recession that was underway when Bush took office never resulted in so many job losses. 2 million was the max. Obama has lost 3 times that amount in less time....only a few months.

It's gotten to the point where less then half a million new jobless claims/mo reported is cause for a celebration and high-fives in the White House.

 

[Polk]

And now this is where we dive into the dishonest. In every previous recession, the standard has been the return of GDP growth, but now you want to slide the scale and say that growth doesn't matter, only job creation does. Fair enough, but that would be an argument for all recessions, not just the current one. Ditto with your claim that unemployment is at 18 percent. That's just simply not true.

Sorry, that doesn't wash.

First of all most of the growth that has been reported is based on temporary productivity not in something that occured naturally. Also, economists have checked and the statistics aren't even close to being accurate. They cooked up a bunch of numbers to give us a false impression. Even bad numbers are reported as positive signs by CBS and other pro-Obama media outlets.

The Cash For Clunkers program was included which ended months ago.

Overtime was added into number of jobs falsely inflating the numbers the Obama Administration counted as jobs created or saved.

Contract work...which is temporary at best was included as saved jobs. These are workers the administration cannot count as saved jobs. When the contract ends in a few months so will the production from those jobs.

Obama himself said that government can't fix the economy...it has to come from the private-sector....the same private-sector that he's currently in the process of decimating.

So basically, you're asking me to take your claims that the numbers are fake at face value? That dog don't hunt.

Mark Zandi, who was one of McCain's chief economic advisers during the campaign, has said that without the stimulus package, unemployment would already be over 11 percent and still rising.

 

[Polk]

It is the economic equivalent of "fake but accurate". See Dan Rather for an in depth explanation of the concept.

Except EVERY recovery is a "jobless" recovery since employment is the last thing to rise. Usually overtime and temp work will come first.
I remember Dems taunting Bush in 2001/2002 over his "jobless recovery" and "McJobs" job creation. It was false then,it's false now.

I don't think you're thinking clearly.

Jobless Recovery appears to be a new term invented for the current cycle. I don't remember ever hearing it before.

They had to think of some way to put a positive spin on Obama's lousy performance and that's the best they could do.

Another thing....at it's worst the recession that was underway when Bush took office never resulted in so many job losses. 2 million was the max. Obama has lost 3 times that amount in less time....only a few months.

It's gotten to the point where less then half a million new jobless claims/mo reported is cause for a celebration and high-fives in the White House.

If you didn't hear it, it's because you need to clean the wax out of your ears. Just a simple Google News search for the term yields 23,900 articles using it from 2002 to 2004.