CDZ Wow! Some Proprietary Market Indicators

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by william the wie, Jul 9, 2016.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Value Line has been around for 60+ years and its picks have done much better over that period than the Dow and S&P and this has led to some indicators:

    The number of triple ones (highest ratings for safety, timeliness and technical ratings) are one such indicator. If they go up in number the market strongly tends to follow but it is not an effective timing indicator. And likewise in the other direction. The triple ones are getting kind of low in number.

    Projected returns on stocks recommended for timeliness work the same way when returns are expected to increase general market returns tend to increase. the reverse is also true.

    So, the market is likely to go way down in the next six months.
     
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  2. Dekster
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    Dekster Gold Member

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    Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.
     
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  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    This could sink Hillary even v. Trump
     
  4. FA_Q2
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    FA_Q2 Gold Member

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    ^ that is what the right banked on last time. It failed.

    It is unlikely that a sinking economy is simply going to sink Hillary - Trump has to control the messaging during the election for it to do so. I have serious doubts that he is capable of that.

    Hillary is preparing right now to take Trump out - Trump is repeating what he has done for the last several months. One of those is a winning strategy, the other is not.
     
  5. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I agree with your assessment of Trump but judging by how she screwed the pooch in her coronation procession Trump appears to be less of a loose cannon than she is. Attending what can be portrayed a peaceful BLM meeting less than 24 hours after the Dallas murders was one of the dumbest stunts pulled by a presidential candidate in my life time and I was born in the Truman administration. She will sound like an even bigger idiot in a downturn saying she will support the same policies as Obama,.
     
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  6. yiostheoy
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    yiostheoy Gold Member

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    It sounds like you are an "econometrist" trader then.

    So go ahead, sell off all your shares of everything.

    Especially if you believe econometrics is so good as a predictors of share prices on the markets.

    Technical analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
  7. yiostheoy
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    yiostheoy Gold Member

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    If you think The Donald is LESS of a loss cannon than anyone else on this Earth then you are wacko.
     
  8. yiostheoy
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    yiostheoy Gold Member

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    WE are still IN a recession. Did you not get the memo?

    Have you been living under a rock since 2008 ?!
     
  9. Dekster
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    Dekster Gold Member

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    We are not in a recession as of yet at least, though last month's anemic job numbers would suggest we are on the cusp.

    For those playing the Clinton-Trump song and dance, this won't be another "It's the economy, stupid." election. All these left-wing protestors/agitators are a minefield for Clinton, especially with police assassinations.
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    While your post is accurate it does ignore the risk of the Blue Wall going Chapter 3 prior to the election. The skyrocketing murder rate in Chicago is mostly due to undeclared municipal bankruptcy.officially BBB.school bonds are priced to yield at B (junk) and the state legislature cannot get reelected if they cut a budget deal with the governor and forced bankruptcy is likely to hit prior to November. And the rest of the top ten states likely to default are also in the Blue Wall.

    Whether the trigger is:

    The slow motion bank panic in the EU.

    The crash of Energy prices.

    Continued deterioration in China.

    or follow on Brexits.

    Almost anything could cause a major crisis in most blue states and hurt many people and especially Hillary.
     
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