Workforce Participation Rate and Government Hiring Hide Lack of Recovery

Yeah I have my doubts that this economy will recover, too, given we've done nothing real about the root cause of this FAKE debt ridden economy.
 
Yeah I have my doubts that this economy will recover, too, given we've done nothing real about the root cause of this FAKE debt ridden economy.

The problem is people are willing to borrow whatever they can just to socially network and indulge in consumerism. If you don't borrow, you become a social outcast. People don't like you because you're boring, and you get frustrated because you have no social fabric to otherwise give you things to do.

Basically, modern society compels people to endure a J-curve. Either borrow in the present to assume the risk of becoming sociable into the future, or fall through the cracks.
 
Exactly.

When the FED opened the floodgates on borrowing for homes, (in fact when the FED increases the money supply inapproprately for ANY reason) they start encouraging that j-curve.

I usually refer to this phenomena as ASSET INFLATION sdince the capital class truly has NO CHJOICE but to attempt to protect the value of their captial by investing it in PRODUCTIVE assets.

Sadly, the working classes, now unable to keep up the level of purchasing necessary for them to make those productive assets return a reasonable ROI to those investments, means that the asset prices are inflated beyond their real worth over time.

When the capital class has more money to invest, but the consumings classes cannot meet the expections of purchasing, this is an INEVITABLE outcome .

I'm not an expert but I suspect right now the stock market (currently the best investment opportunity left to the capital class) is going through still another BUBBLE.

Personally right now I think that a world wide economic meltdown is a greater threat to civilization than either WAR or NATURAL DISASTER.

We're been fooling ourselves if we think that the mess left over from the 2007-2008 meltdown is past.

By reconsituting the banking system, by foisting off their toic debts to the public sector, they have keep the system going, to be true.

But by failing to change the system, all we've done is kick the GREAT BALANCE SHEET DEPRESSION down the road.
 
Exactly.

When the FED opened the floodgates on borrowing for homes, (in fact when the FED increases the money supply inapproprately for ANY reason) they start encouraging that j-curve.

I usually refer to this phenomena as ASSET INFLATION sdince the capital class truly has NO CHJOICE but to attempt to protect the value of their captial by investing it in PRODUCTIVE assets.

Sadly, the working classes, now unable to keep up the level of purchasing necessary for them to make those productive assets return a reasonable ROI to those investments, means that the asset prices are inflated beyond their real worth over time.

When the capital class has more money to invest, but the consumings classes cannot meet the expections of purchasing, this is an INEVITABLE outcome .

I'm not an expert but I suspect right now the stock market (currently the best investment opportunity left to the capital class) is going through still another BUBBLE.

Personally right now I think that a world wide economic meltdown is a greater threat to civilization than either WAR or NATURAL DISASTER.

We're been fooling ourselves if we think that the mess left over from the 2007-2008 meltdown is past.

By reconsituting the banking system, by foisting off their toic debts to the public sector, they have keep the system going, to be true.

But by failing to change the system, all we've done is kick the GREAT BALANCE SHEET DEPRESSION down the road.

Why do you think "residential investment" is so appealing on a cultural level?
 
Granny says, "Dat's right - The Donald Makin' America Great Again...
thumbsup.gif

152,528,000: Record Number of Employed in February; Participation Rate Rises
March 10, 2017 | A record 152,528,000 Americans were employed in February, 447,000 more than in January, and the labor force participation rate went up, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Sixty-three percent of Americans either held a job or actively looked for one in February, the highest participation rate in ten months.
The number Americans not in the labor force continued to drop, to 94,190,000 in February, 176,000 fewer than in January and well below the record of 95,102,000 set in December 2016. And there’s more good news in the February jobs report, the first one to cover a full month of the Trump presidency: According to BLS, the economy added 235,000 jobs last month and the February unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a point to 4.7 percent. The 94,190,000 million people counted as not participating in the labor force in February includes millions of baby boomer retirees, students, the disabled, homemakers and others who do not work for various reasons.

But this number is important because many of those not in the labor force receive Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, health insurance subsidies and other entitlements that come partly from the taxes paid by those who do work. In February, the nation’s civilian noninstitutionalized population, consisting of all people age 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution, reached 254,246,000. Of those, 160,056,000 participated in the labor force by either holding a job or actively seeking one. The 160,056,000 who participated in the labor force equaled 63 percent of the 254,246,000 civilian noninstitutionalized population. (The participation rate dropped to a 38-year low of 62.4 percent on Obama's watch, in September 2015.)

BLS says in February, among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate decreased for Whites to 4.1 percent, while the jobless rates for adult men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.3 percent), teenagers (15.0 percent), Blacks (8.1 percent), Asians (3.4 percent), and Hispanics (5.6 percent) showed little or no change. The Labor Department says 5,597,000 people “currently want a job.” In his speech to the nation two weeks ago, President Trump said he will ask Congress to launch a “national rebuilding,” with a trillion-dollar infrastructure program that will create “millions of new jobs.” He also noted that since his election, “Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, General Motors, Sprint, Softbank, Lockheed, Intel, Walmart and many others have announced that they will invest billions and billions of dollars in the United States, and will create tens of thousands of new American jobs.”

152,528,000: Record Number of Employed in February; Participation Rate Rises

See also:

U.S. Adds 28,000 Jobs in Manufacturing--and 8,000 in Government
March 10, 2017 | The United States added 28,000 jobs in manufacturing in February and 8,000 in government, according to numbers released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
So far in 2017 (January and February), the U.S. has gained 39,000 manufacturing jobs and 25,000 government jobs. Nonetheless, in February, government jobs in the United States outnumbered manufacturing jobs by 9,942,000. That is down from is down from the 9,956,000 margin that government jobs had over manufacturing jobs in December 2016, according to the BLS numbers.

government_and_manufacturing_jobs-chart-03-10-17.png

Over the past year--from February 2016 to February 2017--the United States added 7,000 manufacturing jobs, with employment in manufacturing during that time span rising from 12,375,000 to 12,382,000. From February 2016 to February 2017, the United States gained 194,000 government jobs, with employment in government during that time span rising from 22,130,000 to 22,324,000.

The number of manufacturing jobs in the United States peaked at 19,533,000 in June 1979. Since then, it has declined by 7,151,000 to the 12,382,000 as of this February, according to the BLS numbers. During the same time frame—from June 1979 to February 2017—the number of government jobs grew from 16,045,000 to the current 22,324,000, an increase of 6,279,000.

U.S. Adds 28,000 Jobs in Manufacturing--and 8,000 in Government

Related:

$611,318,000,000: Individual Income Taxes Set Record Through February
March 10, 2017 | The federal government collected a record of approximately $611,318,000,000 in individual income tax revenues through the first five months of fiscal 2017 (Oct. 1, 2016 through the end of February), according to the Monthly Treasury Statement released today.
That is about $6,733,300,000 more than the $604,584,700,000 in individual income taxes (in constant 2017 dollars) that the federal government collected through the first five months of fiscal 2016. Despite collecting a record amount in individual income taxes, the Treasury still ran a $348,984,000,000 deficit in the first five months of this fiscal year. Social Security and other payroll taxes also increased in the first five months of FY17 compared to the first five months of FY16. In Oct.-Feb. of last fiscal year, the Treasury collected $433,161,000,000 in payroll taxes (in constant 2017 dollars). In Oct.-Feb, of this fiscal year, it collected $451,445,000,000. That is an increase of about $18,284,000,000 in payroll taxes.

chart-individual_income_taxes-through_february-1977-2017.png

However, despite the increases in revenues from the individual income tax and payroll taxes over the first five months of fiscal 2017, overall federal tax collections were down slightly during the Oct.-Feb. period of FY17 compared to FY16. In the first five months of FY6, the federal government collected $1,263,101,350,000 in total tax revenues (in constant 2017 dollars). In the first five months of this fiscal year, it collected $1,256,553,000,000. That is a drop of about $6,548,350,000. Revenues from corporate income taxes, excise taxes, and customs duties all declined in the first five months of FY17 compared to FY16. The federal government collected approximately $89,884,230,000 corporate income taxes (in constant 2017 dollars) in the first five months of FY16. In the first five months of fiscal 2017, it has collected only approximately $87,355,000,000. That is a decline of approximately $2,529,230,000.

The federal government collected approximately $33,037,280,000 in excise taxes during the Oct.-Feb. period of FY16. This fiscal year it has collected only approximately $29,854,000,000. That is a decline of about $3,183,280,000. The federal government collected approximately $14,974,000,000 in customs duties in the first five months of FY16. In FY17, it has collected $14,269,000,000. That is a decline of about $705,000,000. Estate and gift taxes have also declined slightly. In the first five months of FY16, the Treasury collected $8,724,750,000 in these taxes (in constant 2017 dollars). This year, the Treasury has collected only $8,315,000,000 in estate and gift taxes. That is a drop of $409,750,000.

cumulative_revenues_and_outlays-mts-sc.jpg

The Treasury is also reporting a decline in what it categorizes as “Miscellaneous Receipts.” In the first five months of FY16, the federal government collected $78,894,070,000 in these taxes (in constant 2017 dollars). So far this year, it has collected $53,997,000,000. That is a decline of $24,897,070,000. While collecting $1,256,553,000,000 in total revenue from October through February, the federal government spent $1,605,537,000,000—and, thus, ran a $348,984,000,000 deficit. Even though, as CNSNews.com reported today, there were a record 152,528,000 people employed in the United States in February, the $1,256,553,000,000 in taxes the federal government collected in the first five months of this fiscal year worked out to approximately $8,238 per worker. The $348,984,000,000 deficit worked out to approximately $2,288 per worker.

$611,318,000,000: Individual Income Taxes Set Record Through February
 
There is only one metric, symbolized in one chart, that matters.
fredgraph-2.png


Velocity of money - definition from Investopedia:

"The velocity of money is the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another and how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money.

Velocity is important for measuring the rate at which money in circulation is used for purchasing goods and services, as this helps investors gauge how robust the economy is, and is a key input in the determination of an economy's inflation calculation
."

Read more: Velocity Of Money Definition | Investopedia Velocity Of Money
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

Money velocity has absolutely TANKED over the past twenty years. All of the other numbers - all of the hype about jobs, GDP, asset prices, etc., is all pure HOOP-LAH. It's just a distraction from the true dire state of things.

This horrific economic depression (velocity is LOWER now than it was during the depths of the Great Depression of the 1930s) has been masked by massive injections of liquidity by global central banks, amounting to many trillions of currency units. Most of that has been parked on the balance sheets of big banks, so runaway inflation has not occurred yet. Yet asset bubbles have been blown, and the moment interest rates make a significant rise, they will begin to burst. Stay tuned for this to begin happening in the not-too distant future.
 
of course thats very very dumb given that central banks control interest rates.Did you ever think of Econ 101????[/QUOTE]

Yes, I did. In fact, it's not Econ 101 as much as basic math 101. Let me explain:

When you have 20 Trillion USD in debt, the interest payment varies. It's determined by what's called the rate of interest. The higher the rate of interest, the greater the payment on the debt must be. e.g., 1% of 20 Trillion = 200 Billion. So if interest rates rise to 1%, .gov must pay 200 Billion in interest on the debt every month. 5%, closer to the historical norm, makes it a whopping 1 Trillion per month, totally unsustainable. At some point, as the debt grows, the interest payments will exceed tax revenues, at which point default occurs. The only alternative is hyperinflation, by which the debt becomes payable with devalued currency.

I hope this elementary lesson has proved valuable to you. If it's too long and convoluted, I'll try to dumb it down into a single baseless assertion.
 
a) basic math 101. Let me explain:

b) if interest rates rise to 1%, .gov must pay 200 Billion in interest on the debt every month.

c) I hope this elementary lesson has proved valuable to you. If it's too long and convoluted, I'll try to dumb it down into a single baseless assertion.

dear, its $200 billion a year, not a month. Please do dumb down the basic math for
me!

Also, what Nazi like audacity is required for a uneducated illiterate fool kid to imagine he has discovered something all the Harvard Ph.D's and Nobel prize winners missed????
 
dear, its $200 billion a year, not a month. Please do dumb down the basic math for
me!

Also, what Nazi like audacity is required for a uneducated illiterate fool kid to imagine he has discovered something all the Harvard Ph.D's and Nobel prize winners missed????[/QUOTE]

What are you talking about? All debt functions on a monthly basis.

Yes, I'm a nazi. You got me. Cat's out of the bag.

Many people have discovered this same simple fact. I grow tired of your trolling and soon won't dignify it with a response.
 

Forum List

Back
Top