Will Obamacare's Loss be Obama's Gain?

Discussion in 'Law and Justice System' started by BluePhantom, Mar 28, 2012.

  1. BluePhantom
    Offline

    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2011
    Messages:
    7,062
    Thanks Received:
    1,738
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Portland, OR / Salem, OR
    Ratings:
    +3,137
    I want to toss out a line of argument here for consideration. For the purposes of this thread we will assume that Obamacare is doomed based on the SCOTUS hearings the last two days. Many have said this will be a critical blow to Obama. Personally I am not so sure. I think it can be used as an effective weapon actually. Consider the following strategy. Keep in mind it matters not whether any of this ir true or factual...only that it can be sold to the American people.

    1) Obama will attack Romney on the grounds that the Republicans through the conservative wing of the Supreme Court (and by extension Romney) just took away 40 million people's health insurance, allowed people with pre-existing conditions to be denied care, etc.

    2) After Obamacare is ruled unconstitutional it's possible that businesses will breathe a sigh of relief that they no longer have a large financial burden awaiting them in the future. With this feeling of comfort and security they will likely start hiring again meaning unemployment decreases and the economy picks up steam.

    3) Obama can argue that his economic policies are working if point #2 comes to fruition and therefore deserves a second term. Of course the exact opposite will be true: in that scenario the economy would start rolling because Obama's policies got throw out on their ear (and Romney will have to stick that point hard), but the average person will not make that connection and the media sure isn't going to point it out to them.

    4) Health care will once again become a critical part of the general election campaign and most polls that I have seen show that people trust the Democrats more on that topic than they do the Republicans. Rasmussen , for example, has a two point edge to the Democrats on that issue. Obama will be able to bedazzle the voters with bullshit again and promise them ice cream cones and unicorns in regard to health care...and frankly they will fall for it again.​


    Now I do think that Obama will take an initial hit when Obamacare goes down, but I am not so convinced that it will be a death bell tolling for him. I think he can use it to his advantage. And keep in mind I can't stand Obama so I am not engaging in liberal wishful thinking here.

    Thoughts?
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2012
  2. Polk
    Offline

    Polk Classic

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2009
    Messages:
    9,752
    Thanks Received:
    569
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Republic of Pequod
    Ratings:
    +569
    1. That assumes they'll strike down the whole law. It's far more likely they sever the mandate.

    2 & 3. It won't happen, if only because businesses aren't that concerned about the law. Hiring lags because demand is still weak.

    4. I don't think health care will be big campaign issue, but it could make the courts a winning issue for Democrats, between this case and Citizens United.
     
  3. SniperFire
    Offline

    SniperFire Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2012
    Messages:
    13,627
    Thanks Received:
    1,219
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Inside Your Head
    Ratings:
    +1,223
  4. BluePhantom
    Offline

    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2011
    Messages:
    7,062
    Thanks Received:
    1,738
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Portland, OR / Salem, OR
    Ratings:
    +3,137
    We will get a peek at their thoughts on that issue today but I tend to think they will strike the whole thing due to a lack of severability. But the SCOTUS does whatever the heck it wants so who knows.

    Time will tell

    Well the people hate the law. The majority of Americans favor repealing it and feel it's unconstitutional (1). Why would a SCOTUS ruling that reflects that make the courts a winning issue for Democrats?

    1. Health Care Law - Rasmussen Reports™
     
  5. konradv
    Offline

    konradv Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    22,571
    Thanks Received:
    2,558
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Baltimore
    Ratings:
    +5,674
    If you sever the mandate, you might as well toss the whole law. I don't see that happening, though. That would call into question SS and I don't see more than 4 justices risking that. It's a tax the Republicans preferred, BTW, a private rather than a public option with the option being "with whom" rather than "whether".
     
  6. BluePhantom
    Offline

    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2011
    Messages:
    7,062
    Thanks Received:
    1,738
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Portland, OR / Salem, OR
    Ratings:
    +3,137
    Regardless of who favored what...none of that makes any difference now....it appeared from Kennedy's line of questioning that he's at least leaning toward repeal. Obamacare supporters can forget about a vote from Scalia, Thomas, Alito, or Roberts.

    Anyhow we're discussing all that over here.

    As I said...for the purposes of this thread we're assuming it's going to go down.
     
  7. Katzndogz
    Offline

    Katzndogz Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    65,659
    Thanks Received:
    7,418
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Ratings:
    +8,337
    obamacare was deeply unpopular even before it was signed into law. It has only become more unpopular since. Democrats were able to delude themselves into a sincere belief that a majority supported the bill. If the bill is defeated in court, it is highly unlikely that obama is so stupid that he would make an issue that republicans defeated the bill. If democrats really think that striking down this incredibly unpopular law is a winning issue they are more deluded than I thought.

    The only benefit democrats might take advantage of is what Blue Phantom pointed out. Businesses might be relieved at its defeat enough to start hiring again. However, they will be hiring at a time when energy is being squeezed at the other end. The EPA is poised to start shutting down power plants with black outs, brown outs, rationed power and exhorbitant rates.
     
  8. BluePhantom
    Offline

    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2011
    Messages:
    7,062
    Thanks Received:
    1,738
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Portland, OR / Salem, OR
    Ratings:
    +3,137
    Good points, especially the last one.
     
  9. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    No..and it won't be a gain for anyone.

    And in the long run it might actually hurt the supreme court. The court has taken a very radical shift. They've been actively engaged in legislating politics and judicial activism. Two things it seems conservatives use to be against.
     
  10. konradv
    Offline

    konradv Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    22,571
    Thanks Received:
    2,558
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Baltimore
    Ratings:
    +5,674
    What do brownouts have to do with "the purposes of this thread"?
     

Share This Page