Will Obama run again?

MaggieMae

Reality bits
Apr 3, 2009
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1,635
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I'm beginning to see many reasons why Barack Obama may choose not to run for reelection.

1. It became clear early on that Republicans felt it was their "turn" to get even, and had no intention of supporting any Democratic president, let alone this one. Therefore, trying to get anything passed through Congress would be fruitless if Republicans win more seats in 2010 and thereafter. (I doubt the dems could even get the cons to approve the design of a new postage stamp.)

The partisan gridlock has gone on since Clinton beat Bush 41, with the Republicans seeing red over that embarrassment. Then, when Republicans got a little power back in 1994, with a vengeance they began an all-out crusade to bring down Clinton (finally the sex scandal gave them what they wanted). So when Bush 43 was elected, everyone who loved and supported Clinton finally got even by non-stop Bush-bashing (except for that brief period of time following the attacks of 911). By 2008, it was the dem's turn again, and all the Bush lovers (aka "conservatives" :eusa_whistle:) are all pissed off because of Bush-bashing by the dems. And round and round it goes, and nothing gets done except yapping and gnashing of teeth. Eye-for-an-eye politics. How grown up.

2. Independents may either move to the Republican camp because they're willing to give anything "new" a try that would revamp the economy, and especially the job market, or they will stay home, thereby giving away the mid-term election to the Republicans who, carrying all their vindictive regalia, will undoubtedly go to the polls in droves.

3. The war in Afghanistan may still turn as ugly as the war in Iraq did during Bush's mid-term, and he never did recover his popularity and approval ratings thereafter, becoming one of the lamest lame ducks in history. The same could happen to Obama.

4. Obama's health care initiative is going nowhere as long as the economy sucks and unemployment continues to remain high. Likewise any energy package. Unless he is miraculously successful with his quality of basic education initiatives, Obama will have no "signature" issue to enhance this chapter of his career.

It was an uphill battle for Obama at the outset. He didn't create, nor is he responsible for the economic mess this country is in, but the great masses of people who are suffering are blaming him anyway, and no amount of verbal explanations, projections, and promises are satisfactory. Nor will they be. Ironically, people want CHANGE! Imagine that.

If I were to advise President Obama, and if the trends continue, I would tell him to announce shortly following the mid-term election that he's not going to run again. That since he was unable to accomplish anything but fuel the fires of partisan politics, perhaps it's time for some other Democrat to give it a try. Or maybe wish a Republican luck with the same problems, only turned upside down with the dems becoming the Party of No next time. Round 5.

I would advise President Obama that his "legacy" would not be pretty if the economic problems are not resolved. He would forever be remembered as the one who fucked it up (even if he didn't). I would ask him to remember LBJ's history and how he was reviled at the time he chose not to run for reelection, but when history wrote the story honestly, Johnson was responsible for many of the cherished benefits we now take for granted and in the end he couldn't be blamed entirely for the Vietnam quagmire.

I would advise President Obama that he seemed to be more effective as a spokesman for the Democratic Party, making a difference one issue--one neighborhood at a time--rather than trying to effect sweeping change (improvements) on a national scale. There is too much hatred; too much bitterness. Let somebody else become the whipping boy.

I would advise him that it is impossible to think that the power of Washington will bend to the warm and fuzzy dream that hope and change for the country are all that's needed, when what's 'needed' by the major power brokers are back room deals to satisfy personal agendas. And if you're not willing to pony up to blackmail-like deals, then there's always those pesky moles who will sell you out to thousands of Internet buyers (whereas it used to be merely to The Enquirer).

Finally, I would advise the President that he would be able to be a better father to his adolescent children at a time they need more guidance than they ever will, and that exposing them to even more of the ugliness that surrounds him (and his wife) would stop.
 
I'm beginning to see many reasons why Barack Obama may choose not to run for reelection.

1. It became clear early on that Republicans felt it was their "turn" to get even, and had no intention of supporting any Democratic president, let alone this one. Therefore, trying to get anything passed through Congress would be fruitless if Republicans win more seats in 2010 and thereafter. (I doubt the dems could even get the cons to approve the design of a new postage stamp.)

The partisan gridlock has gone on since Clinton beat Bush 41, with the Republicans seeing red over that embarrassment. Then, when Republicans got a little power back in 1994, with a vengeance they began an all-out crusade to bring down Clinton (finally the sex scandal gave them what they wanted). So when Bush 43 was elected, everyone who loved and supported Clinton finally got even by non-stop Bush-bashing (except for that brief period of time following the attacks of 911). By 2008, it was the dem's turn again, and all the Bush lovers (aka "conservatives" :eusa_whistle:) are all pissed off because of Bush-bashing by the dems. And round and round it goes, and nothing gets done except yapping and gnashing of teeth. Eye-for-an-eye politics. How grown up.

2. Independents may either move to the Republican camp because they're willing to give anything "new" a try that would revamp the economy, and especially the job market, or they will stay home, thereby giving away the mid-term election to the Republicans who, carrying all their vindictive regalia, will undoubtedly go to the polls in droves.

3. The war in Afghanistan may still turn as ugly as the war in Iraq did during Bush's mid-term, and he never did recover his popularity and approval ratings thereafter, becoming one of the lamest lame ducks in history. The same could happen to Obama.

4. Obama's health care initiative is going nowhere as long as the economy sucks and unemployment continues to remain high. Likewise any energy package. Unless he is miraculously successful with his quality of basic education initiatives, Obama will have no "signature" issue to enhance this chapter of his career.

It was an uphill battle for Obama at the outset. He didn't create, nor is he responsible for the economic mess this country is in, but the great masses of people who are suffering are blaming him anyway, and no amount of verbal explanations, projections, and promises are satisfactory. Nor will they be. Ironically, people want CHANGE! Imagine that.

If I were to advise President Obama, and if the trends continue, I would tell him to announce shortly following the mid-term election that he's not going to run again. That since he was unable to accomplish anything but fuel the fires of partisan politics, perhaps it's time for some other Democrat to give it a try. Or maybe wish a Republican luck with the same problems, only turned upside down with the dems becoming the Party of No next time. Round 5.

I would advise President Obama that his "legacy" would not be pretty if the economic problems are not resolved. He would forever be remembered as the one who fucked it up (even if he didn't). I would ask him to remember LBJ's history and how he was reviled at the time he chose not to run for reelection, but when history wrote the story honestly, Johnson was responsible for many of the cherished benefits we now take for granted and in the end he couldn't be blamed entirely for the Vietnam quagmire.

I would advise President Obama that he seemed to be more effective as a spokesman for the Democratic Party, making a difference one issue--one neighborhood at a time--rather than trying to effect sweeping change (improvements) on a national scale. There is too much hatred; too much bitterness. Let somebody else become the whipping boy.

I would advise him that it is impossible to think that the power of Washington will bend to the warm and fuzzy dream that hope and change for the country are all that's needed, when what's 'needed' by the major power brokers are back room deals to satisfy personal agendas. And if you're not willing to pony up to blackmail-like deals, then there's always those pesky moles who will sell you out to thousands of Internet buyers (whereas it used to be merely to The Enquirer).

Finally, I would advise the President that he would be able to be a better father to his adolescent children at a time they need more guidance than they ever will, and that exposing them to even more of the ugliness that surrounds him (and his wife) would stop.

You missed the key reason, Mags:

Oprah just announced:

" Oprah: I 'Really' Think I'll Quit in 2011"

FOXNews.com - Oprah: I 'Really' Think I'll Quit in 2011 - Celebrity Gossip | Entertainment News | Arts And Entertainment



Unless she replaces Biden- ya' think?
 
He will run unless his party senses a drubbing at the polls, in which case he will pull an LBJ and decline to run.
Maggie, at what point does Obama become responsible for his presidency? Granted he inherited some problems. So did Pres Bush. So did Pres Reagan. So did Pres Carter for that matter.
But sitting around one year, two years, or more into his presidency and complaining about what a hard lot he inherited doesn't look much like leadership to me. Obviously it doesn't look like it to the majority of Americans either, who now view his job performance unfavorably.
 
I believe that Obama is going to be a one term President because I don't think he will win re-election. I do think he will run because he has such a large ego and is so hung up on himself. It will be fun to watch him go down in flames! I'm waiting for that change to come to America.
 
In other words. He realizes he is a really crappy leader and rather than trying to do better by applying sound principles that work, he will just give up if he doesnt get his way.

And it's all your fault you evil Republcans! For not doing what Obama says.

Course, He could also mean he plans to stop all elections and become a dictator for life. I dont personally, see that happening, but that is a reason he might not run again.
 
I believe that Obama is going to be a one term President because I don't think he will win re-election. I do think he will run because he has such a large ego and is so hung up on himself. It will be fun to watch him go down in flames! I'm waiting for that change to come to America.


I agree and the other interesting question might be, will his party let him run again?

Depending on what takes place in 010, the blue dogs may rise and gain support and say, enough is enough.

The man is terrible, just terrible. ...........& to be honest, in spite of myself, I was optimistic that he might actually end up a level headed blue dog. lol ........ yea right!

Mike
 
IMO Obama is the clear winner, next election. Especially since the republicans are in the toilet and have nobody with any appeal whatsoever. Don't think so? Tell me who beats Obama?
 
He will run unless his party senses a drubbing at the polls, in which case he will pull an LBJ and decline to run.
Maggie, at what point does Obama become responsible for his presidency? Granted he inherited some problems. So did Pres Bush. So did Pres Reagan. So did Pres Carter for that matter.
But sitting around one year, two years, or more into his presidency and complaining about what a hard lot he inherited doesn't look much like leadership to me. Obviously it doesn't look like it to the majority of Americans either, who now view his job performance unfavorably.

Oh God! The terrible problems that Bush inherited! A balanced budget. A nation that was still enjoying prosperity on all levels. And at peace with the world.

He was warned that his primary problem would be terrorism, even given the name of the most dangerous of the terrorists, Bin Laden. His response was the he thought the Clinton "had a fixation concerning Bin Laden". On 9-11, he found out the reason for that "fixation".

President Obama was handed two failed wars, an economy rapidly descending into the Second Great Republican Depression.

While I am not at all sure that all the actions taken were correct, we are no longer at the edge of the abyss.

Pollster.com: National Job Approval: Pres. Barack Obama

Pollster Dates N/Pop Approve Disapprove Undecided
FOX 11/17-18/09 900 RV 46 46 8
Rasmussen 11/16-18/09 1500 LV 46 52 -
Quinnipiac 11/9-16/09 2518 RV 48 42 10
Rasmussen 11/13-15/09 1500 LV 50 49 -
Gallup 11/13-15/09 1500 A 53 38 -
CBS News 11/13-15/09 873 A 53 36 -
CNN 11/13-15/09 1014 A 55 42 3
PPP (D) 11/13-15/09 1066 RV 49 46 5
ABC/Post 11/12-15/09 1001 A 56 42 2
Rasmussen 11/10-12/09 1500 LV 47 51 -
Gallup 11/10-12/09 1500 A 52 41 -
Public Opinion Strategies (R) 11/9-11/09 700 RV 52 44 4
Rasmussen 11/7-9/09 1500 LV 48 52 -
Gallup 11/7-9/09 1500 A 54 39 -
AP-GfK 11/5-9/09 1006 A 54 43 3
AP-GfK/RWJF/Stanford 10/29-11/8/09 1006 A 53 46 2
P
 
This term really is the worst of both worlds so far. Obama has had all the responsibility of governing without the ability to actually do so. Sweeping wins for both houses of Congress don't matter, because defective institutional design allows a narrow minority in a single house of the legislature to prevent bills from even coming to a vote.
 
Hmmm..........



Pew Research Center Poll. Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2009. N=1,500 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. RV = registered voters

.Congress: Republicans

"Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing?" If "depends": "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing?"

.

Approve Disapprove Unsure
% % %
9/30 - 10/4/09
24 60 17
6/10-14/09
29 56 15
3/9-12/09
28 51 21
2/4-8/09
34 51 15
9/21 - 10/4/06
33 56 11
6/14-19/06
30 53 17
3/8-12/06 32 50 18
1/4-8/06 33 52 15
11/3-6/05 33 50 17
10/6-10/05 32 52 16
9/8-11/05 36 49 15
5/11-15/05 35 50 15
3/17-21/05 39 44 17
2/04 41 42 17
1/03 48 37 15
6/02 50 34 16
5/02 49 34 17
2/02 56 24 20
9/01 43 39 18
6/01 40 40 20
5/01 45 36 19
 
Obama could be this generation's LBJ, JFK, or forge his own path. His reelection chances will all be based on the economy in for four years and his accomplishments in those four years overall. However, if the economy is still crap, he will lose big time and will probably not run. However, if the economy is booming, he will run and will win.

The problem for the GOP is that they have no viable candidates to run against Obama at the present moment. Every one that does step up is seemingly cursed as something worsens their chances. (Palin stepping down, Jindal's bad speech, etc).
 
Obama could be this generation's LBJ, JFK, or forge his own path. His reelection chances will all be based on the economy in for four years and his accomplishments in those four years overall. However, if the economy is still crap, he will lose big time and will probably not run. However, if the economy is booming, he will run and will win.

The problem for the GOP is that they have no viable candidates to run against Obama at the present moment. Every one that does step up is seemingly cursed as something worsens their chances. (Palin stepping down, Jindal's bad speech, etc).

Jindal isn't running in 2012. He can, and if I had to bet will, recover from the bad speech. He's young and with the ability to draw votes, so he'll wait for 2016.
 
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Jindal isn't running in 2012. He can, and if I had to be will, recover from the bad speech. He's young and with the ability to draw votes, so he'll wait for 2016.

Exactly, he's young, he can wait.
 
Interesting analysis.
I've believe for some time that for some of the reasons you gave, this country isn't constitutionally governable. Perhaps Obama may reach the same conclusion that Bush did. Simply allow congress to pass whatever they please and through the use of signing statements and executive orders, run the country as he sees fit. Then whatever the result, it would belong to Obama.
 
This term really is the worst of both worlds so far. Obama has had all the responsibility of governing without the ability to actually do so. Sweeping wins for both houses of Congress don't matter, because defective institutional design allows a narrow minority in a single house of the legislature to prevent bills from even coming to a vote.
Clueless on the concept of supermajority, eh?
 
I think that if President Obama wants to make a serious bid for a second term he needs to begin governing now. Obama has taken on many topics that were considered the third rail of national politics like health care reform. He has tried to bring both parties to the middle on these issues to come to a sensible solution. However I think Obama underestimated how much partisan politics would eat away at his agenda. Obama needs to stop making promises and starting holding up top the promises he has already made with the country. Furthermore I think the polling numbers are soft, I think a good 5-9% of the approval votes are from African-Americans who do not wish to see the first African-American President fall into the unfavorables.
 
This term really is the worst of both worlds so far. Obama has had all the responsibility of governing without the ability to actually do so. Sweeping wins for both houses of Congress don't matter, because defective institutional design allows a narrow minority in a single house of the legislature to prevent bills from even coming to a vote.
Clueless on the concept of supermajority, eh?

Show us the 60 votes that he has for cloture.
 
IMO Obama is the clear winner, next election. Especially since the republicans are in the toilet and have nobody with any appeal whatsoever. Don't think so? Tell me who beats Obama?

No one has announced their candidacy yet. How can people who are unkown have any appeal?
 

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