CDZ Will French President Macron Become Another Obama?

[jwoodie]

French President-elect Macron has won the French election in much the same way that Obama won in 2008, first by narrowly defeating the insider candidates (like Hillary) and then by defeating a very weak opponent (like McCain) in the final election.

The question is how French voters will react in next month's Parliamentary elections once they get over the thrill of electing a young politically correct leftist (like Obama). American voters had to wait two years to express second thoughts about the direction their new President was taking the country; French voters need only wait a month before waking up to their new President's bleak vision of a steadily declining future for their country.

I predict that, next month, French voters will express grave doubts about their Presidential choice by electing majorities in their parliament who will strongly oppose Macron's policies.

Sound familiar?

 

[Pogo]

French President-elect Macron has won the French election in much the same way that Obama won in 2008, first by narrowly defeating the insider candidates (like Hillary) and then by defeating a very weak opponent (like McCain) in the final election.

The question is how French voters will react in next month's Parliamentary elections once they get over the thrill of electing a young politically correct leftist (like Obama). American voters had to wait two years to express second thoughts about the direction their new President was taking the country; French voters need only wait a month before waking up to their new President's bleak vision of a steadily declining future for their country.

I predict that, next month, French voters will express grave doubts about their Presidential choice by electing majorities in their parliament who will strongly oppose Macron's policies.

Sound familiar?

No. Not at all. Starting at the beginning --- O'bama won so easily in '08 because the previous administration was associated with an epic market collapse that was very much in progress on election day. ANYONE associated with that administration, would have gone down. France is in no such position.

Second part, Macron isn't a "leftist" except to some wag sitting waaaaaaay over there on the right, from which point everybody short of Hitler is a "leftist". Third, there wasn't any such two-year 'second thoughts' --- O'bama was pretty consistent in his approval ratings.

 

[irosie91]

"EVENTS" will play a role

 

[jwoodie]

No. Not at all. Starting at the beginning --- O'bama won so easily in '08 because the previous administration was associated with an epic market collapse that was very much in progress on election day. ANYONE associated with that administration, would have gone down. France is in no such position.

Second part, Macron isn't a "leftist" except to some wag sitting waaaaaaay over there on the right, from which point everybody short of Hitler is a "leftist". Third, there wasn't any such two-year 'second thoughts' --- O'bama was pretty consistent in his approval ratings.

1. Obama won in 2008 (and 2012) largely because he was a politically correct candidate who people could vote for to demonstrate their lack of racial prejudice. His policies were roundly rejected in the 2010 and later Congressional elections.

2. Macron won in 2017 largely because he was a politically correct candidate who people could vote for to demonstrate their lack of religious prejudice. His Euro-centric socialist policies will face their real test in next month's parliamentary elections.

3. Since when is an avowed Socialist not a leftist?

 

[Pogo]

1. There was no "politically correct" impetus on the table ---- there was (1) economy, (2) economy and (3), say it with me ---- economy. Period. Y'all Obamaphobes looooove to forget about that and whine and cry the blues about a black man winning and "political correctness" bullshit, but it IS what was front and center. NO ONE associated with Bush and his historic disapproval ratings was going to have a chance, didn't matter WHO the opposition ran. Frickin' Lincoln Chafee could have won that election.

And 2, virtually *every* mid-term election, as long as there have been these two parties, loses seats for the party that holds the White House, whether the POTUS is popular or not. That's not a comment on the POTUS; it's the electorate striking a balance. That pattern wasn't broken at all until 1934, in the midst of the Great Depression, when FDR was benefiting from even worse opposition disapproval. One of only three times the pattern didn't hold. You want a read on the POTUS' policies, you can look at, again, the approval rating.

Whether France has that same instinct for balance against the head of state, I don't know and I very much doubt you do either. They have more than two parties anyway so it's a different system.

 

[jwoodie]

John Edwards and Barack Obama had nearly identical policies and speaking skills, yet Obama received six times as many votes in the 2008 primaries. I wonder why?

 

[miketx]

John Edwards and Barack Obama had nearly identical policies and speaking skills, yet Obama received six times as many votes in the 2008 primaries. I wonder why?

People are stupid.

 

[skye]

I think Macron will be worst than Obama .... worse than Trudeau.

He'll be worse than the previous French disaster Hollande as well.

C'est vraiment magnifique.

 

[PredFan]

It doesn't matter. It's too late, France is gone and that cannot be reversed.

The UK is gone as well and Sweden is almost to the point of no return.

 

[Pogo]

3. Since when is an avowed Socialist not a leftist?

Macron isn't a "socialist". He's not even a politician. He's got no record; he's a wild card.
Mostly he's not the extremist so he got a lot of votes not necessarily for him but against the extremist, much as Hillary got the same kind of votes here.

I know the labor unions are not enthralled with Macron so that doesn't indicate a leftist either, but time will tell.

 

[Pogo]

John Edwards and Barack Obama had nearly identical policies and speaking skills, yet Obama received six times as many votes in the 2008 primaries. I wonder why?

Uh.... possibly because Edwards was in it less than a month and quit the campaign in January?

That was easy. What do I win?

 

[Dragonlady]

John Edwards and Barack Obama had nearly identical policies and speaking skills, yet Obama received six times as many votes in the 2008 primaries. I wonder why?

Edwards was a sleaze. Obama is not.

 

[MarathonMike]

I don't see Macron actively trying to divide France nor do I see him actively trying to empower Muslim countries, so no.

 

[Dragonlady]

I don't see Macron actively trying to divide France nor do I see him actively trying to empower Muslim countries, so no.

Obama didn't do that either.