Will crude go under $35 a barrel?

[Delta4Embassy]

Biggest summer driving day coming up this weekend, and then demand drops off for the rest of the year.

The US is drilling like crazy, so is OPEC, and there is no sign in their next meeting they are going to cut it.

I will pay $2.43 a gallon to drive to Baton Rouge for a family business meeting from the Hill County and will pay less next week on the way back.

The deal with Iran will further depress prices and the demand from Brazil/China/India continues to be mediocre.

I bet I will be paying $1.75 a gallon at the end of September.

Will that be a good thing or a bad thing?

Good thing for consumers, bad thing for the planet.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Read Mr. H.'s link for a chuckle. Silly trade rag.

We can export when we have achieved energy independence, not until then.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I'll give Obama credit for making us number one in oil and natural gas! This is the only way fossil fuels can survive a few more years against renewables.

What did Obamaloser do to make us number 1?
Be specific.

Actually, it's a lot of what he didn't do to restrict the production of the "old form of energy." However, he did take important steps that certainly has increased US production.

* An increase in the sales of leases for oil and gas drilling on federal lands. In 2013, the Bureau of Land Management held 30 such sales—the most in a decade—offering 5.7 million acres for lease by industry.

* An increase in the speed with which permits are being issued for actual drilling on federal lands. What's called "processing time" has, the White House boasts, been cut from 228 days in 2012 to 194 days in 2013.

* The opening up of an additional 59 million acres for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the site of a disastrous BP oil spill in April 2010.

* An increase in the sales of leases for oil and gas drilling on federal lands. In 2013, the Bureau of Land Management held 30 such sales—the most in a decade—offering 5.7 million acres for lease by industry.
That's awesome! How many acres are leased now, compared to 2008?

* The opening up of an additional 59 million acres for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the site of a disastrous BP oil spill in April 2010.

How many acres are leased now, compared to 2008?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Biggest summer driving day coming up this weekend, and then demand drops off for the rest of the year.

The US is drilling like crazy, so is OPEC, and there is no sign in their next meeting they are going to cut it.

I will pay $2.43 a gallon to drive to Baton Rouge for a family business meeting from the Hill County and will pay less next week on the way back.

The deal with Iran will further depress prices and the demand from Brazil/China/India continues to be mediocre.

I bet I will be paying $1.75 a gallon at the end of September.

Will that be a good thing or a bad thing?

What Happened After the North Dakota Oil Boom Went Bust - The Atlantic

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

IF:

Syria can be given back to Assad and kept out of ISIL hands that will help lowering the price of Oil.

Iraq war with ISIL need to be brought under control, and a stable government put in place allowing Iraq to flow it oil through the pipeline between Iraq and Syria which then bring the price of OIl down further.

Iran coming online would also flood the world market driving price down even further.

If all three of those factors were to happen along with stabilizing Northern Africa countries like Libya then the price of oil could go below twenty dollars a barrel because of the glut.

Will this happen?

Most likely not but the production by the U.S. and OPEC has caused a major hurt on the Russian economy and Iran too seeing they need oil prices higher than they are now.

Just my opinion on the matter.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, and the U.S. Cannot produce at a 35 dollar price. Even Saudi Arabia cannot politically hold,their country together at 35. Canada can't produce at that price. Supply will evaporate and price will go up. There is no way we see 35.

 

[JiggsCasey]

my gosh, where is RGR these days? My guess is he's "lost his shirt" in the shale collapse, and knows his argument was always bunk.

anyhoo, the price of oil absolutely could go under $35 ... but it has way more to do with crushed demand than it does with some illusionary "glut" in world oil supplies... years of sky-high prices has effectively ruined global purchasing power, and it just doesn't come back over night. Anyone who thinks the never-ending European debt crisis has nothing to do with global net energy depletion really needs to reprogram.

many of you put in hard work pointing to shale from fracking, Iranian compliance and Iraq production as evidence of supply abundance... None of you acknowledge the relentless depletion of existing capacity that offsets all of that.

Asia's growth is slowing rapidly, and with it, world demand. ... The U.S.'s fracking "revolution" is entering Hospice care, as rig counts have plummeted 50-60% with global prices this low. While there is a lag period between rig count changes and production changes, it's still coming... Many oil monitoring entities have Bakken and Texas production already dropping, and most see U.S. production as a whole starting down the decline side of the curve later this year/early next. And with the curtain finally raised on what a net loser unconventional production always was, don't expect a return of crucial investor confidence if/when prices ever DO return.

Optimism surrounding Iran talks is both uncertain, and, in a best-case scenario, years away from fruition with regards to production increase. But the timing of thawing relations just as the U.S. "shale revolution" game ends should not surprise anyone. The world desperately needs their expanded capacity now that U.S. production growth is over.

But the biggest factor is that of net energy, which has been dropping for decades. It is at a point now where a barrel of oil just isn't nearly as valuable to the global economy as it used to be. Certainly in terms of BTU efficiency. The industry has done an impressive con job changing the definition of that which constitutes "total liquids" so it looks like we're still increasing global production... but the sobering reality is that there are no new sweet spots of abundant conventional crude to find. We increasingly rely on crap-grade heavy or tight formations that simply do not yield the same bang for buck as conventional fields always did.

This is peak oil... Call it peak demand if you like, but the dynamic is still the same. The days of 15:1 and above EROEI are over, folks.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Talk about a science denier.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Biggest summer driving day coming up this weekend, and then demand drops off for the rest of the year.

The US is drilling like crazy, so is OPEC, and there is no sign in their next meeting they are going to cut it.

I will pay $2.43 a gallon to drive to Baton Rouge for a family business meeting from the Hill County and will pay less next week on the way back.

The deal with Iran will further depress prices and the demand from Brazil/China/India continues to be mediocre.

I bet I will be paying $1.75 a gallon at the end of September.

Will that be a good thing or a bad thing?

In 2001 it would have been a good thing. Bush went to war in Iraq to removed the ability of OPEC to be a cartel, didn't work, because the Saudis are the ones pushing this, and they're "allies" and can't be invaded.

However with the fracking in the US, US companies now see it as their interest to have higher oil prices to make more of a profit when they sell abroad. Things have changed massively. Now OPEC is trying to put oil prices down to put US companies out of business and hurt Russia too.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Talk about a science denier.

if you're referring to me, please flesh that one out if you would... and don't be lazy. Bring your A game.

What about science am I "denying" in that post?

 

[CoachWitch]

This oversupplied market may turn the prices down even more.

 

[JakeStarkey]

WTI and Brent falling again: 50 and 56.

Will it be down to 45 by next week?

 

[westwall]

I thought all you Peak Oilers were saying we were running out of oil? If the price is dropping that implies we have more than we need. What gives, boys?

 

[JakeStarkey]

47.52 and 52.63 on Thursday

 

[initforme]

I hope it drops to $2 a barrel. One can hope.

 

[JakeStarkey]

46.87 and 51.79 today toward closing

down 21% in July

And, oh, very yes, the Saudis can operate and deliver product with oil below $35.

 

[initforme]

$35 seems fair. Over $100 per barrel is thievery.

 

[JakeStarkey]

What is thievery is that SLC prices early this week were 2.81 to 2.97 while central Texas ranges from 2.29 to 2.43.

 

[HenryBHough]

If demand falls so will prices.

When prices get too low there'll be no drilling for oil.

But the enviro-loons won't do their part. They still romp to their Global Warming protest meetings in their SUVs. They still waste electricity blogging from their basements.

So we're doomed to moderate price reductions, if any, ald it's all the Greenies fault!

Frig-in-crites......

 

[initforme]

Well lets hope the price of oil drops right down really fast. A win win for everyone except the oil companies but we can live with that.