Will Clinton still be in the race next week?

[CrimsonWhite]

Just wondering what the board thinks will happen this week.

Personally, I think Obama will win marinally and Clinton will take it to convention. After all, she has a shitload of superdelegates and is no stranger to backdoor politicking.

 

[Ravi]

They both win one big state and the race goes on until the convention.

 

[jillian]

I think he gets Texas by a couple of points... I think she gets Ohio by a couple of points.

And then I think she gets Pennsylvania...

Unless the DNC tells her to get out and offers her something for it, she's not going anywhere, IMO.

And thing is, they're only about 100 delegates apart. I'm not sure that means she should lay down and die.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

I think he gets Texas by a couple of points... I think she gets Ohio by a couple of points.

And then I think she gets Pennsylvania...

Unless the DNC tells her to get out and offers her something for it, she's not going anywhere, IMO.

And thing is, they're only about 100 delegates apart. I'm not sure that means she should lay down and die.

I agree, but the party is getting anxious about a long fight and making noises she should withdraw. I think that might be a mistake, she has some die hard supporters that may get pissed if they think she was forced out. And as close as they are in delegates it is really still anyones race. Especially since NO Dem primary is winner take all.

 

[JimH52]

I think he gets Texas by a couple of points... I think she gets Ohio by a couple of points.

And then I think she gets Pennsylvania...

Unless the DNC tells her to get out and offers her something for it, she's not going anywhere, IMO.

And thing is, they're only about 100 delegates apart. I'm not sure that means she should lay down and die.

I think the time will come soon when she will need to think of the party first. She is a fighter but she will be told with words...or moved out. Obama has too many names behind him right now.

Oddly enough, in the long run Hillary walking away may not be in the best interest if the Dems. Maybe its me but there is a stinky fish here somewhere. We will see...

 

[jillian]

I think the time will come soon when she will need to think of the party first. She is a fighter but she will be told with words...or moved out. Obama has too many names behind him right now.

Oddly enough, in the long run Hillary walking away may not be in the best interest if the Dems. Maybe its me but there is a stinky fish here somewhere. We will see...

I guess I don't understand why the person who won every major blue state that she'll have to win in a general election should be the one to walk away. This annointing Obama when he's halfway to the necessary delegates and when their delegate count is so close is really offensive to me. I didn't like it when people called her "inevitable" either.

I'd also point out that the person who's up by 20 points in Ohio (though that's a tentative result and they're still saying it's too close to call) really has no business walking away since we're never winning Texas, but we absolutely DO need Ohio to win.

 

[jillian]

Clinton just declared winner in Ohio. (57% to 41% as of right now).

That's two tonight... that's the thing about momentum, it changes.

And Texas too close to call with each at 49% of the vote.

 

[CrimsonWhite]

Clinton just declared winner in Ohio. (57% to 41% as of right now).

That's two tonight... that's the thing about momentum, it changes.

And Texas too close to call with each at 49% of the vote.

CNN just called Texas for Clinton. Clinton wins three out of the four primaries tonight, yet Obama still holds the same 100 delegate lead that he went in to tonight with. How the hell can you stand being a Democrat in an election year. Tell me that your nomination process doesn't make you want to slap George McGovern.

 

[jillian]

CNN just called Texas for Clinton. Clinton wins three out of the four primaries tonight, yet Obama still holds the same 100 delegate lead that he went in to tonight with. How the hell can you stand being a Democrat in an election year. Tell me that your nomination process doesn't make you want to slap George McGovern.

the election process makes me want to slap someone!! seriously. She's won every big blue state that she needs for the general election...

it's incredibly interesting, though, if I can step back long enough for my stomach not to turn! lol...

there is something I need to ask, because it came up yesterday? why on earth is our process like this? The repubs have it right... winner take all, no mr niceguy, sudden death elimination. obviously had something to do with mcgovern, but what?? (sorry, you got me on that!)


I have been saying, though, NEVER count out Hillary Clinton! Never! The broad is tough... seriously. (And I say that with respect and awe!)

 

[onedomino]

the election process makes me want to slap someone!! seriously. She's won every big blue state that she needs for the general election...

it's incredibly interesting, though, if I can step back long enough for my stomach not to turn! lol...

there is something I need to ask, because it came up yesterday? why on earth is our process like this? The repubs have it right... winner take all, no mr niceguy, sudden death elimination. obviously had something to do with mcgovern, but what?? (sorry, you got me on that!)


I have been saying, though, NEVER count out Hillary Clinton! Never! The broad is tough... seriously. (And I say that with respect and awe!)

The media coronation of Obama was premature. The voters did not like that. She will win PA and if they redo MI and FL she will blow out Obama in those states. She will go to the convention having won all the big states except IL.

 

[jillian]

The media coronation of Obama was premature. The voters did not like that. She will win PA and if they redo MI and FL she will blow out Obama in those states. She will go to the convention having won all the big states except IL.

I think the one thing we've learned this time around is that the voters really don't like being told in advance by the media what's going to happen.... every time the press did that, they went the other way.

And I hope you're right re the outcome... not giving her the delegates in Florida was bogus, anyway. I was joking yesterday that a bunch of old jews in Florida were disenfranchised again.

You didn't answer me about the McGovern thing, though....

 

[Gunny]

the election process makes me want to slap someone!! seriously. She's won every big blue state that she needs for the general election...

it's incredibly interesting, though, if I can step back long enough for my stomach not to turn! lol...

there is something I need to ask, because it came up yesterday? why on earth is our process like this? The repubs have it right... winner take all, no mr niceguy, sudden death elimination. obviously had something to do with mcgovern, but what?? (sorry, you got me on that!)


I have been saying, though, NEVER count out Hillary Clinton! Never! The broad is tough... seriously. (And I say that with respect and awe!)

It's in y'all's nature to "do it" to yourselves.

Here in TX, if you win the popular you get 2/3's of the delegates. If you win the caucuses, you get 1/3. Hillary won the popular but it looks as though Obama is winning the caucuses. In other words, the declaration that Hillary won was premature. She won the popular vote.

My wife who is about as politically aware as a 6 years old simplified it ... the Democratic caucuses are like a tax loophole for the wealthy.

 

[Steerpike]

I'd also point out that the person who's up by 20 points in Ohio (though that's a tentative result and they're still saying it's too close to call) really has no business walking away since we're never winning Texas, but we absolutely DO need Ohio to win.

Jillian: you're forgetting in your comments about Hillary winning the big blue states and winning Ohio that the vast majority of those voters are going to end up voting for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

Actually, the argument might favor Barak more, because in polls I've seen almost every person who supports Hillary will support Barak in the general election. The reverse isn't as true - if Hillary is the nominee a greater percentage of Barak supporters will be lost to McCain or stay home.

 

[onedomino]

I think the one thing we've learned this time around is that the voters really don't like being told in advance by the media what's going to happen.... every time the press did that, they went the other way.

And I hope you're right re the outcome... not giving her the delegates in Florida was bogus, anyway. I was joking yesterday that a bunch of old jews in Florida were disenfranchised again.

You didn't answer me about the McGovern thing, though....

I do not know to what the McGovern thing refers. It happened before I was born.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

the election process makes me want to slap someone!! seriously. She's won every big blue state that she needs for the general election...

it's incredibly interesting, though, if I can step back long enough for my stomach not to turn! lol...

there is something I need to ask, because it came up yesterday? why on earth is our process like this? The repubs have it right... winner take all, no mr niceguy, sudden death elimination. obviously had something to do with mcgovern, but what?? (sorry, you got me on that!)


I have been saying, though, NEVER count out Hillary Clinton! Never! The broad is tough... seriously. (And I say that with respect and awe!)

Not all Republican Primaries are winner take all. Enough are though to ensure someone with enough momentum doesn't have the problem the dems have now, the Convention will be split most likely.

Actually the strongest ticket I see for Dems is Hillary as President and Obama as Vice President. But it won't happen. No one is going to tell Obama to step aside because he is black. And in my opinion the only reason the press is on his side is again, because he is black. This close a race is not something anyone should be declaring winners right now, yet the Press has been doing it right along and the Dem power brokers are starting to try and pressure Hillary out.

 

[jillian]

I do not know to what the McGovern thing refers. It happened before I was born.

True enough! lol...

Yesterday someone told me it goes back to the '68 convention... now I'm gonna have to do some research or talk to some of the oldtimers at my dem club.

 

[jillian]

It's in y'all's nature to "do it" to yourselves.

Here in TX, if you win the popular you get 2/3's of the delegates. If you win the caucuses, you get 1/3. Hillary won the popular but it looks as though Obama is winning the caucuses. In other words, the declaration that Hillary won was premature. She won the popular vote.

My wife who is about as politically aware as a 6 years old simplified it ... the Democratic caucuses are like a tax loophole for the wealthy.

We have the amazing ability to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

I don't get the whole caucus thing. It's kind of like "group voting"...

Sounds like your wife has it right

 

[jillian]

Not all Republican Primaries are winner take all. Enough are though to ensure someone with enough momentum doesn't have the problem the dems have now, the Convention will be split most likely.

Actually the strongest ticket I see for Dems is Hillary as President and Obama as Vice President. But it won't happen. No one is going to tell Obama to step aside because he is black. And in my opinion the only reason the press is on his side is again, because he is black. This close a race is not something anyone should be declaring winners right now, yet the Press has been doing it right along and the Dem power brokers are starting to try and pressure Hillary out.

Won't be good for us if the convention is split, IMO... we need to start framing the debate against McCain before he frames it for us.

I agree about the Dem ticket...although, part of me says that either one of them should pick Ed Rendell as his running mate. They need PA to win and Rendell is as conservative a Dem as you're going to find.

As for the rest of what you said, I agree... I think it's way premature. I think part of it is his general charisma, but part of it is the fact that they are enthralled with the idea of the first black president.

 

[Ravi]

if Hillary is the nominee a greater percentage of Barak supporters will be lost to McCain or stay home.

I doubt this. None of them moved to Canada when Bush was elected.

 

[manifold]

I doubt this. None of them moved to Canada when Bush was elected.

I will be very conflicted if I have to pick between McCain and Clinton. I'd vote Obama over McCain without a second thought. I don't think I'm particularly unique in this regard.