Will China Overtake the US as the Number One Economic Superpower?

[skeptic]

A confronting problem like this could derail or slow down China's economy.

For now. But the consumption capital of the world may be in China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey or India in 5 more years.

Empires fail, get used to it.

 

[konkon]

The rest of the world can consume as much as they like and can generate as much wealth as they like too. One thing they will never take away form the US is the US's ability to control the world's markets and this is done regardless of whether the US is going through a boom time or a bust time domestically.

So producing results and statistics about how much wealth China has accumulated will not change the US dominant role on the world economic stage. Most people think that the only markets are those that you can invest in, like most of us do. Some of these are equity, housing, futures, bond and currency markets, and the list goes on. There are however, shadow markets that are beyond the grasp and control of most investors on the planet. These market forces form the basis and structure of all of those markets that we are aware of and from time to time, invest in. They are the structure behind all of the markets that we claim make up the whole net amount of an economy. But there are other latent markets and the only ones that have control of these shadow or 'cloud' markets are only a select few from primarily the United States.

They are not interested in sharing the knowledge and power with others in the US, and that includes countries like China.

The next time you see a headline suggesting the US is losing its dominance in the world, think of this; most things are priced in US dollars and this includes inflation around the world. How was this 'created'? With a devalued US dollar, that will continue to devalue if those with all that hidden power had their way.

The Chinese economy will only go as far as the US will allow it to go. Here's an example of how the Chinese economy will derail down the track (a long time from now):

If the US continues to devalue the US dollar, a further 30% let's say, then the Chinese economy will go through a potentially devastating crisis. China's growth is at +10% per annum, and it still pegs the yuan to a devaluing US dollar. The opposite should occur for China's economy to flow gracefully. Their currency should appreciate with +10% growth, but this would slowly kill-off their red-hot export sector, and they know this. Serious inflationary problems are occurring in China (a lot more than what they care to admit) because they are not freeing up their currency and because they have tagged it to a dropping US dollar. This is really a serious long-term problem for the Chinese, and if the US really wants to seal China's long-term fate they would have to keep depreciating the US dollar. So what do you think the Fed and those in charge are doing to the US dollar?

Yes, around 40% or so of American wealth is distributed to only 1% of Americans. But only a few of the 1% mentioned is controlling these shadow markets. I do believe the Fed and its banks are influencing it too, and the reason for this; if it was up to most Americans, the US would have a strong US dollar and a, in theory, ongoing robust economy in which most people prosper. But this can only work for some time.

The thing about a market is you end up betting on a future; hence the futures markets. In fact you would do this with everything from housing to bonds. Those in charge, including the US Federal Reserve would have foreseen that a high US dollar meant that the future of the export market in the US was diminishing. So it had to put pressure anyway it could on the US dollar (downwards) and this was done nearly a decade ago. And yes it overstimulated the US economy and a housing etc bubble evolved. But it now finds itself in a position to keep putting pressure on the US dollar to devalue it even more, thus creating inflation and unrest around the world. This will pave the way for the US to set up shop in other countries and issue bank loans to finance projects etc. Sure, China and other countries are doing this too, but they will not gain control of the structure behind the world's economy and only one country, prospering or not, has the ability to move the core of world markets any way it suit it. Some of these goals are long term (20 to 50 years) and not just a couple here and there.

 

[skeptic]

The rest of the world can consume as much as they like and can generate as much wealth as they like too. One thing they will never take away form the US is the US's ability to control the world's markets

You just don't get it. The resources upon which all "wealth" and consumption is based are drawing to a close.

The entire history of the industrial revolution has been based upon exploitation of virgin resources. There are almost no first class virgin resources left to exploit anywhere on the planet.

The US already consumes something like 830% of our equal share of world resources. This can not be maintained, period. Game over.

 

[Toronado3800]

These things rise and fall. Rome and the British empire both fell. Never say never

 

[JamesInFlorida]

I went to buy a new American flag to hang on my house the other day, and when I read the back of the box (comes with a stand). I was very sad to see that only the actual flag was made in the USA-the rest was made in China. All of the flags they had at the store I was in were the same way. (none of the flags were just the flags-you had to get the holders/mounts with them).

So at one of the biggest stores in the nation you can't even buy Old Glory without getting parts of it from China. Very sad.

 

[konkon]

The rest of the world can consume as much as they like and can generate as much wealth as they like too. One thing they will never take away form the US is the US's ability to control the world's markets

You just don't get it. The resources upon which all "wealth" and consumption is based are drawing to a close.

The entire history of the industrial revolution has been based upon exploitation of virgin resources. There are almost no first class virgin resources left to exploit anywhere on the planet.

The US already consumes something like 830% of our equal share of world resources. This can not be maintained, period. Game over.

I do get it, but what you've stated has nothing to do with what I've been saying; the post above. No point reiterating it again. On a different note, no communist country can ever take the number one spot from the US, anyway. The US controls the capitalist money markets too.

Resources are not coming to a close. Oil might one day but the world is full of untapped energy. The next generation of fuels are yet to be mass produced. Elements, like phosphorous needed for plant growth, are in abundant supply; don't believe the speculators that are just interested in bumping up prices of soft and hard commodities.

 

[skeptic]

Resources are not coming to a close. Oil might one day but the world is full of untapped energy. The next generation of fuels are yet to be mass produced. Elements, like phosphorous needed for plant growth, are in abundant supply; don't believe the speculators that are just interested in bumping up prices of soft and hard commodities.

Resources are not coming to a close. You misunderstood everything I said.

Resources that can be profitably exploited are coming to a close.

For example we haven't even bothered to try to exploit phosphurous from no petro sources for decades because...it isn't cost effective.

But what does "cost effective" mean? It means that which we can do with economies of scale affordably to support 7, 10, 12 billion people at once.

Once we can't provide phosphorous and nitrogen affordably the poorest 1/3 of all humans are condemned to death, because they will be those who can't afford food anymore.

CHEAP resources are coming to a close. And the entire industrial revolution and population explosion was supported on CHEAP resources. Once those resources become expensive the whole system reverses course.

 

[konkon]

Resources that can be profitably exploited are coming to a close.

For example we haven't even bothered to try to exploit phosphurous from no petro sources for decades because...it isn't cost effective.

But what does "cost effective" mean? It means that which we can do with economies of scale affordably to support 7, 10, 12 billion people at once.

Once we can't provide phosphorous and nitrogen affordably the poorest 1/3 of all humans are condemned to death, because they will be those who can't afford food anymore.

CHEAP resources are coming to a close. And the entire industrial revolution and population explosion was supported on CHEAP resources. Once those resources become expensive the whole system reverses course.

The resources sector is priced in US dollars. There really isn't a lack of supply like many want us to believe. There is lots and lots of stockpiling going on and these resources are not being used. One day the US dollar will reverse course and it will head upwards and the price of commodities will come down. Commodities have always gone up and down throughout history and this is just another cycle.

Yes world population will become an even bigger problem down the track and it will be an issue for China/India specifically (us all, but those two countries mainly). This adds to the theory that China can not overtake the US as the number one economy (with ultimate power to move markets around the world).

We have only had cheap resources for a limited amount of time throughout history. People and communities throughout history have always been priced-out of basic commodities.

Speculative practices in markets have skewered people's perceptions of what is really going on with commodities. Most don't realize that the US dollar is inversely correlated to the price of commodities.

Energy in the universe just doesn't disappear. It just gets converted into something else. Many of these things will, in some way or another, get reused.

 

[KissMy]

IMF Forecast: China Will Overtake the U.S. Economy by 2016?

 

[Brutus]

You just don't get it. The resources upon which all "wealth" and consumption is based are drawing to a close.

too stupid and perfectly liberal. If so we would not have 5 billion rich humans all with rare earth metals in their cell phones. In 1970's energy crisis the liberals said we'd be out of oil by the 1990's. Instead, we were all driving SUV's, and China India Brazil had doubled the total vehicles on the road. Even now we have all the energy we need just from oil, but we have invented electric cars and found vast deposits of natural gas.

A liberal will always get it 100% backwards.

 

[uscitizen]

Will China Overtake the US as the Number One Economic Superpower?


yes.

 

[Brutus]

Will China Overtake the US as the Number One Economic Superpower?


yes.

I don't think anyone on earth doubts that they will overtake us. The important thing to note about it is that it is happening almost instantly after 10,000 of deadly poverty because they turned capitalist.

In the most bizarre and incredible twist in human history, America has elected a president with long standing communist ties just as China has demonstrated once again how deadly communism is.

 

[Old Rocks]

China is investing far more into the education of it's people that we are. They are investing far more into the next generation technologies. Yes, they will surpass us in the near future. And, unless we get serioius about investing in our own people, we will end up in third place, China, the EU, then the US.

 

[Brutus]

China is investing far more into the education of it's people that we are. They are investing far more into the next generation technologies.

1)no one spends more on education than America. Our kids are the dumbest in the industrial world because the liberal unions control the schools. Competitive voucher schools would solve that problem, plus we need to make parents pay for education so poor people won't have so many kids.

2) There is no evidence they are investing more in next generation technologies. Did you make that up?

 

[expat_panama]

Things to consider:

The Chinese civilization has been around for more than seven thousand years. They have learned a few things during that time. The Chinese people have endured ages of starvation and tyrannical oppression. The centuries of poverty they are now emerging ...

No, actually a thousand years ago China's had fertile plains linked by a canal system, a population with cities much larger than Europe's, iron production of 125,000 tons annually (greater than Britain's during the industrial revolution), a million man army, and a navy of thousands of combat, long range cruisers, and large floating fortresses. A century before Columbus they sent out explorers with compasses/map makers ten thousand miles to India and southern Africa.

What happened is China decided it was already perfect and didn't need anything that wasn't Chinese. They not only stopped exploring but by 1700 they stopped iron production, and now half their population scratches for food out of the ground.

They still have difficulty admitting that sometime others are right and they're wrong. Americans on the other hand have great difficulty admitting that they're right and accepting the fact that foreigners can be wrong.

 

[waltky]

Dem bubbles do have a tendency to burst...

Asset bubble main threat to China growth
May 20, 2011 - CHINA is capable of strong growth for another 30 years, but the re-mergence of a major asset bubble looms as the biggest short-term danger to its economy.

China's leaders have calmed the country's roaring property market as they try to slow growth and battle inflation, but economists, including Australia' new Treasury chief Martin Stephenson, have been warning about problems ahead for Australia biggest trading partner. "If the government did nothing about it, if they allowed it to really bubble up, that is very dangerous," economist Fan Gang said on the sidelines of the Australian Institute of Company Directors conference in Beijing.

"Now, after two years it is stabilised, I would say. The hard landing is already avoided, but the danger is always there. "It could bubble up in the next couple of years, given that there is a lot of money around. "If you look at the past 30 years, all the major crises in the world have been related to asset bubbles, particularly housing. "The government takes this one on both sides - including the social side - so it's a big issue, very dangerous."

Dr Fan is an adviser to the People's Bank of China - the central bank - and heads a think tank, China National Economic Research Institute, and is secretary general of the China Reform Foundation. He is also a professor at Peking University and the China Academy of Social Sciences. His close links with the Chinese government have led to him being named several times in lists of the world's most influential people.

Dr Fan, who earned his PhD in economics at Harvard, said China could easily keep growing strongly for another 30 years, and downplayed fears that inflation would continue to be a major problem. "It's not that serious compared to recent history," he said. "In 2007-08 it was 8.7 per cent, at its highest quarterly inflation, now it's at 5.4-5.3 per cent, so it's not that serious. Secondly, I do not see a very permanent problem with that.

MORE

 

[Publius1787]

The general consensus might be 'yes', but I don't think China will overtake the US as the number one economic superpower, even if China has greater wealth than the United States.

China will one day have greater net wealth that the US, but it will not control the world's economy the way the US does. One thing that we have learnt over the past few years is even with a financial crisis all eyes still turn to the US to see what the next move is. This will continue and will be strengthened by the US's ability to control, to its advantage, its position in the world's economy. An example of what is going on is the US's ability to put pressure on devaluing its currency, which then helps its exporters. Another side to this effect is a low USD creates inflation around the world (including China) and makes the price of soft and hard commodities to go up. This can have a pricing-out effect on some competing nations.

Inflation and commodity prices are tied to the US dollar and this gives the US all the advantage it needs to control the world economy as it generally sees fit. China will not be in a position to take this control off the United States and it will try very hard to do so. One reason is because the US has an established foothold in the dynamics of the world's economy and it won't give that up. It will also have a more superior military force than the Chinese, so it can pretty much give them and anyone else the finger if it needs to.

Another crucial point is that China does not have a key understanding of how a dynamic and sometimes out of control capitalist market works. You just can't go on controlling every aspect of an economy. The US and the west has too much of a head-start in this game. If China frees-up its markets then it will face the prospect of unrest, higher inflation, a very strong yuan (which will kill its exports) and possible revolt by some provinces down the track.

Answer to your thread. Nope! But they might bring the world in to economic disaster. Their GDP is artificially inflated. They cant keep this up forever. This bubble will burst. And the world may suffer for it.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM]YouTube - ‪China's Ghost Cities‬‏[/ame]

 

[GWV5903]

The general consensus might be 'yes', but I don't think China will overtake the US as the number one economic superpower, even if China has greater wealth than the United States.

China will one day have greater net wealth that the US, but it will not control the world's economy the way the US does. One thing that we have learnt over the past few years is even with a financial crisis all eyes still turn to the US to see what the next move is. This will continue and will be strengthened by the US's ability to control, to its advantage, its position in the world's economy. An example of what is going on is the US's ability to put pressure on devaluing its currency, which then helps its exporters. Another side to this effect is a low USD creates inflation around the world (including China) and makes the price of soft and hard commodities to go up. This can have a pricing-out effect on some competing nations.

Inflation and commodity prices are tied to the US dollar and this gives the US all the advantage it needs to control the world economy as it generally sees fit. China will not be in a position to take this control off the United States and it will try very hard to do so. One reason is because the US has an established foothold in the dynamics of the world's economy and it won't give that up. It will also have a more superior military force than the Chinese, so it can pretty much give them and anyone else the finger if it needs to.

Another crucial point is that China does not have a key understanding of how a dynamic and sometimes out of control capitalist market works. You just can't go on controlling every aspect of an economy. The US and the west has too much of a head-start in this game. If China frees-up its markets then it will face the prospect of unrest, higher inflation, a very strong yuan (which will kill its exports) and possible revolt by some provinces down the track.

Answer to your thread. Nope! But they might bring the world in to economic disaster. Their GDP is artificially inflated. They cant keep this up forever. This bubble will burst. And the world may suffer for it.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM]YouTube - ‪China's Ghost Cities‬‏[/ame]

Beat me to it, I received this video today, I liked the part were they got back into the mall, really this is only the surface of their problems to come, too big way too fast, they will implode, make are current recession look like a dream, look out world China's going to burst....

 

[Publius1787]

The general consensus might be 'yes', but I don't think China will overtake the US as the number one economic superpower, even if China has greater wealth than the United States.

China will one day have greater net wealth that the US, but it will not control the world's economy the way the US does. One thing that we have learnt over the past few years is even with a financial crisis all eyes still turn to the US to see what the next move is. This will continue and will be strengthened by the US's ability to control, to its advantage, its position in the world's economy. An example of what is going on is the US's ability to put pressure on devaluing its currency, which then helps its exporters. Another side to this effect is a low USD creates inflation around the world (including China) and makes the price of soft and hard commodities to go up. This can have a pricing-out effect on some competing nations.

Inflation and commodity prices are tied to the US dollar and this gives the US all the advantage it needs to control the world economy as it generally sees fit. China will not be in a position to take this control off the United States and it will try very hard to do so. One reason is because the US has an established foothold in the dynamics of the world's economy and it won't give that up. It will also have a more superior military force than the Chinese, so it can pretty much give them and anyone else the finger if it needs to.

Another crucial point is that China does not have a key understanding of how a dynamic and sometimes out of control capitalist market works. You just can't go on controlling every aspect of an economy. The US and the west has too much of a head-start in this game. If China frees-up its markets then it will face the prospect of unrest, higher inflation, a very strong yuan (which will kill its exports) and possible revolt by some provinces down the track.

Answer to your thread. Nope! But they might bring the world in to economic disaster. Their GDP is artificially inflated. They cant keep this up forever. This bubble will burst. And the world may suffer for it.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM]YouTube - ‪China's Ghost Cities‬‏[/ame]

Beat me to it, I received this video today, I liked the part were they got back into the mall, really this is only the surface of their problems to come, too big way too fast, they will implode, make are current recession look like a dream, look out world China's going to burst....

Yep. With about 60% of their GDP tied to construction and the average Chinese citizen making $6000 per year, their artificially proped economy is bound for a bust. The problem is what happens to us when this bust occours?

 

[GWV5903]

Answer to your thread. Nope! But they might bring the world in to economic disaster. Their GDP is artificially inflated. They cant keep this up forever. This bubble will burst. And the world may suffer for it.

YouTube - ‪China's Ghost Cities‬‏

Beat me to it, I received this video today, I liked the part were they got back into the mall, really this is only the surface of their problems to come, too big way too fast, they will implode, make are current recession look like a dream, look out world China's going to burst....

Yep. With about 60% of their GDP tied to construction and the average Chinese citizen making $6000 per year, their artificially proped economy is bound for a bust. The problem is what happens to us when this bust occours?

Global Inflation....