- Banned
- #1
Imagine youre a contestant on the Lets Make a Deal! gameshow, the old one hosted by Monty Hall. Monty offers you the chance to win a beautiful new car, but its behind one of three closed doors. Behind each of the other two doors is a goat. Let's assume winning a new car is preferable to winning a goat...
You choose a door, and Monty (who, since he's the host and in command, knows where the car is) opens one of the remaining two doors to reveal a goat. He offers you a choice: stay where you are, or switch to the other closed door. What do you do?
Basic instinct says there are two doors, so we have a 50-50 shot, so why switch, right? Go with your gut, your first intuition, right? Wrong. Always switch. Our odds double. Hard to believe, but your gut just lied to you.
Why You Can't Always Trust Your Gut : Lifestyle :: American Express OPEN Forum
You choose a door, and Monty (who, since he's the host and in command, knows where the car is) opens one of the remaining two doors to reveal a goat. He offers you a choice: stay where you are, or switch to the other closed door. What do you do?
Basic instinct says there are two doors, so we have a 50-50 shot, so why switch, right? Go with your gut, your first intuition, right? Wrong. Always switch. Our odds double. Hard to believe, but your gut just lied to you.
Why You Can't Always Trust Your Gut : Lifestyle :: American Express OPEN Forum
