Why the Rebels Will Lose

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by Adam's Apple, Jun 23, 2005.

  1. Adam's Apple
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    Adam's Apple Senior Member

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    Why the Rebels Will Lose
    By Max Boot, The Los Angeles Times
    June 23, 2005

    No wonder public support for the war is plummeting and finger-to-the-wind politicians are heading for the exits: All the headlines out of Iraq recently have been about the rebels' reign of terror. But, lest we build up the enemy into 10-foot-tall supermen, it's important to realize how weak they actually are. Most of the conditions that existed in previous wars won by guerrillas, from Algeria in the 1950s to Afghanistan in the 1980s, aren't present in Iraq.

    The rebels lack a unifying organization, ideology and leader. There is no Iraqi Ho Chi Minh, Fidel Castro or Mao Tse-tung. The top militant is Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian who has alienated most of the Iraqi population, even many Sunnis, with his indiscriminate attacks on civilians.

    Support for the insurgency is confined to a minority within a minority -- a small portion of Sunni Arabs, who make up less than 20% of the population. The only prominent non-Sunni rebel, Muqtada Sadr, has quietly joined the political process. The 80% of the population that is Shiite and Kurdish is implacably opposed to the rebellion, which is why most of the terror has been confined to four of 18 provinces.

    Unlike in successful guerrilla wars, the rebels in Iraq have not been able to control large chunks of "liberated" territory. The best they could do was to hold Fallouja for six months last year. Nor have they been able to stage successful large-scale attacks like the Viet Cong did. A major offensive against Abu Ghraib prison on April 2 ended without a single U.S. soldier killed or a single Iraqi prisoner freed, while an estimated 60 insurgents were slain.

    The biggest weakness of the insurgency is that it is morphing from a war of national liberation into a revolutionary struggle against an elected government. That's a crucial difference. Since 1776, wars of national liberation have usually succeeded because nationalism is such a strong force. Revolutions against despots, from Czar Nicholas II to the shah of Iran, often succeed too, because there is no way to redress grievances within the political process. Successful uprisings against elected governments are much rarer because leaders with political legitimacy can more easily rally the population and accommodate aggrieved elements.

    For full article:
    http://www.cfr.org/pub8199/max_boot/why_the_rebels_will_lose.php
     
  2. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    They are about to feel the wrath of a fully operational death star. HAHA
     
  3. tim_duncan2000
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    tim_duncan2000 Active Member

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    Not only that, but, unlike Vietnam, they also don't have a USSR/China-type country supplying them with weapons. Sure, they have explosives and RPGs, but they don't have an outside supplier quite like the USSR or China that can get them artillery, planes, missiles, and other supplies.
     
  4. menewa
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    menewa Member

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    The article ignored the growing presence of foreign fighters. Many of these are funded by Saudi oil money. The Saudis earn their oil money by selling to hyper-consumers, such as livein the USA. We are, in a sense, funding our own destruction.
     
  5. Pasquinade
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    Pasquinade Rookie

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    Well, well,
    Today was another shining example of the mixed messages this administration is prone to sending out.
    Firstly Dicky Boy was saying that things are looking up in Iraq and the insurgency was all but dead, fab news I hear you say, oh but wait there goes that fly in the ointment again.
    Last September it was touted around that the rebellion in Fallujah had been crushed and what do we now hear? A suicide bomber in that very same town (that was supposedly safe) has claimed the lives of 6 US servicemen and women.
    Every day it seems there is more news of suicide bombings in and around Iraq. When will you gung ho Republicans get your heads out of your ass and wake up to the fact that YOUR GOVERNMENT has created a Pandora's box in that country and all the promises of a free, Democratic country after the removal of Saddam where people can live in peace and harmony are a complete loadof twaddle!!!
     
  6. GotZoom
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    GotZoom Senior Member

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    Oh....ok.
     

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  7. 5stringJeff
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    5stringJeff Senior Member

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    You know, that bunny actually has two pancakes on its head.
     
  8. 5stringJeff
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    5stringJeff Senior Member

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    Didn't we kick your ass?

    Twice?
     

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