Why the Conservative Media Got It So Wrong

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Trajan, Nov 7, 2012.

  1. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    a lot of good points here, plus I would add that for some, it just appeared inconceivable on this basis alone; that someone stuck with an anemic economy 3 years after the recession had ended would be reelected.





    Why the Conservative Media Got It So Wrong

    There is no doubt that going into the final days of this presidential election there was a greater disparity in the perceptions of what the outcome would be among the media elites of each political side than any other time in the era of modern technology. Liberals were completely convinced that President Obama would be reelected, while conservatives tended to not just believe Mitt Romney would beat him, but that he would do so in a landslide.

    So why did the conservative media get it so wrong? Because I am a conservative who was confident that Obama would win a tight race, I think that I may be in unique position to explain why this happened.

    First, while you would think that the advent of modern technology and the explosion of polling data which now exists (it is truly staggering how much more information there is today than there was, say, in 1980) would help in making political predictions, it actually does the opposite. This is because having access to so many numbers allows political partisans to cherry-pick which data points they like in order to fit their agenda and preferred outcome.

    As Mark Twain is alleged to have said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    For conservatives, this natural human inclination to embrace the data that they like and discard the rest is greatly enhanced, and essentially injected with steroids. This is because they have a very understandable and highly justified distrust of a news media which has been showing open hostility to the prospects of our candidates for as long as any of us can remember.

    While I am not the very first person to question the credibility of everything I hear in the news media, having once worked for a polling institute and having commissioned several high profile national polls myself, I understand that polls, while hardly perfect, should not generally be thought of as part of the biased news propaganda machine (which is why, ironically, the Fox News poll is often not at all favorable to conservatives).

    But because conservatives are understandably so distrustful of everything they are told by the media, it becomes easy for them to fall into the trap of assuming that polls showing Obama winning are inherently flawed. They are even able to come up with enough real numbers to make arguments which appear to be based in intellect, even though they are really being driven by emotion and self interest.

    This phenomenon was made even more pervasive because to the conservative political junkies who spend their lives absorbing every possible news item with the assumption that it is simply not possible to comprehend how anyone would vote to reelect Obama. This fed into their fervent belief that the polls must simply be wrong (as did their forgetting that, when nearly everyone votes in a swing state, it really doesn't matter how much more enthusiastic one side is than the other).

    read the rest at-


    John Ziegler: Why the Conservative Media Got It So Wrong
     
  2. rightwinger
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    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    A major hurdle for Conservatives is that they believe their own propaganda about Obama and think the rest of the country believes it too.

    Obama and his family is generally liked by most Americans. The endless personal attacks did not help their cause. As much as the conservative media tried to spin it otherwise...Americans still blamed Bush for our bad economy.

    Also, the current division of Red and Blue States means that Republicans start the race from behind
     
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  3. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    the endless personal attacks? the endless personal attacks helped Obama, plain and simple, hindsight seems to say, he never got past , really, the obama camp defining Romney as a greedy corp looter.
     
  4. Mad Scientist
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    Mad Scientist Deplorable Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    The Media (On both sides) are just like those ESPN pundits. They love to talk about the game, they know the numbers and the stats of all the players. But a lot of them never played the game and they fall into the trap of thinking that understanding the underlying stats gives them a special insight and makes them a player too. But they're not, they're just analysts.

    When a team beats another team, no matter what the sport, Sports analysts are quick to total the stats and always like to point to one stat in particular that won or lost it for the team. It makes them sound observant and smart.

    "They had more 3rd down conversions"
    "They dominated in time of possession"
    "They committed fewer turnovers"

    Which is all B.S. because it's the final score that is the most important stat and the only one that should really matter.

    A few years ago the Patriots entered the Super Bowl Undefeated and was widely picked by most prognosticators (ESPN Guys) to pummel the Giants into submission. We all know how that turned out don't we? Everyone was shocked but me because I know at any given time or place any team can win a single game for the Championship. And that's what the Election was, a single game for the Title.

    And what happened yesterday? More of Obama's players showed up and "scored points" for the team. It's that simple. If more of Romney's players had shown up it would be different story, but it didn't happen.

    So what will you see all day on TV? Those SAME prognosticators explaining why Romney lost but not having to explain why they were wrong. Just like ESPN.

    I used to listen to Raider Football Radio when they were in L.A. and this is how the broadcast usually went:

    "The Raiders will win today because.. blah blah blah". Then after the Raiders lost it would be; "The Raiders lost because... blah blah blah. But they will win next week because... blah blah blah". It's like their only purpose isn't to inform but to promote.

    Most media outlets are like that and that's why I don't watch TV anymore.
     
  5. dblack
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    dblack Gold Member

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    It's going to be interesting to see how things change as an entire generation comes to the fore that has largely disconnected from mainstream media - one that treats media more selectively. Is it just a coincidence that, so far at least, this group overwhelmingly supports a libertarian agenda?
     
  6. Mad Scientist
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    Oh really? The Left didn't engage in constant personal attacks on Romney? You on the Left vilified him for his religion, his kids, his wife. One of you even made a thread about how white one of kids hair was!

    I wish this election would have been about "the issues" but it seems to me none of the important ones were brought up. At all.
     
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  7. Truthmatters
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    They build their house on lies is why they lost
     
  8. rightwinger
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    Lets see?

    Greedy corporate looter vs Socialist, Muslim, Kenyan, "Not a real American", Community Organizer?

    I think the voting public sympathized more with Obama
     
  9. Trajan
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    the msm still has huge throw weight. what you say is true but really, how many folks read more than a few simple snippets so as to consider themselves informed? right or left?

    there is such a huge amount of information out there its overwhelming to most.

    example- something simple; I saw exit polling for those northern Ohio counties that all went obama, despite the econ. number 1 on their minds, they bought the Obama line that Romney wanted GM and Chrysler bankrupted, as in out of biz.

    So, in that manuf. rich area tied to GM et al, they voted by a 69% margin for Obama, despite the NY Times ( in which the Romney article was published speaking to this) and the wash. post both saying several times that Obama had severely "misquoted" ( he actually ignored and lied) about what Romney said in that article- gov. guarantees and managed bankruptcy.....

    Didn't matter, I mean if someone who lives in that area and earns their bread in that industry or is interested enough to make that a basis of their vote, was not going to get to the bottom of that and read what was really said.....what does that say?

    the medias power is huge and, despite consistent Pew polling putting distrust of the media upwards of 60%....the [a] big lie still holds power.
     
  10. Oddball
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    OP piece is right, for all the right reasons.
     

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