- Aug 4, 2009
- 280,589
- 139,005
- 2,300
4 reasons Democrats are hopeful about holding the Senate - The Week
Political forecasters have long said that Republicans were strongly favored to pick up four seats in November and regain control of the Senate, where Democrats now have a slim 53-47 majority. But now, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, "polls show key races shifting decisively toward the Democrats, with the Republican position deteriorating almost by the day
1. Romney is dragging down Republicans in key races
The GOP's hopes of seizing the Senate have "dwindled dramatically" at the precise moment that Romney's campaign has tanked
2. The GOP picked several weak nominees
The GOP's Senate hopes began unraveling months ago, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) was the longest serving senator in his state's history, and a pretty safe bet to win re-election until he was ousted in the primary by Tea Party-backed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock
3. Far-right candidates are hurting the party's brand
Akin didn't just hurt himself with his inflammatory remarks. He also likely damaged the whole party's reputation by reinforcing the perception that the GOP is too conservative on social issues for mainstream tastes.
4. There aren't enough vulnerable Dems... but wait until 2014
The GOP had a few legitimate shots at pick-ups this year, but after Akin's implosion, polling shifts in Massachusetts, Virginia, and Wisconsin were enough to dim their hopes. Still, Republicans shouldn't get too discouraged. If they "don't pull it off in 2012, watch out in 2014." Twenty Democrats will face re-election in two years and six are from red states
Political forecasters have long said that Republicans were strongly favored to pick up four seats in November and regain control of the Senate, where Democrats now have a slim 53-47 majority. But now, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, "polls show key races shifting decisively toward the Democrats, with the Republican position deteriorating almost by the day
1. Romney is dragging down Republicans in key races
The GOP's hopes of seizing the Senate have "dwindled dramatically" at the precise moment that Romney's campaign has tanked
2. The GOP picked several weak nominees
The GOP's Senate hopes began unraveling months ago, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) was the longest serving senator in his state's history, and a pretty safe bet to win re-election until he was ousted in the primary by Tea Party-backed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock
3. Far-right candidates are hurting the party's brand
Akin didn't just hurt himself with his inflammatory remarks. He also likely damaged the whole party's reputation by reinforcing the perception that the GOP is too conservative on social issues for mainstream tastes.
4. There aren't enough vulnerable Dems... but wait until 2014
The GOP had a few legitimate shots at pick-ups this year, but after Akin's implosion, polling shifts in Massachusetts, Virginia, and Wisconsin were enough to dim their hopes. Still, Republicans shouldn't get too discouraged. If they "don't pull it off in 2012, watch out in 2014." Twenty Democrats will face re-election in two years and six are from red states
