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The GOP / Tea Party / Libertarians have a real quandry on their hands with this guy. I really liked him when we lived in Sugar Land, TX but we were pretty insulated from the poor / lower-middle-class there. I have to admit, I was not paying attention to a lot that was going on. I thought all was fine.
So the biggest debacle the Conservs have had recently (in the eyes of everyone but themselves) was the debt ceiling. Polls ranged anywhere from 65% - 78% of people thinking the GOP handled it disastrously. Doesn't matter if they were right or had a point, elections are won based on perception - and the perception was overwhelmingly poor. This was one of the few areas in which Obama (although he too had poor ratings) came out looking WAY better than the GOP. So debt is a key issue.
What's Perry's record on debt? Oops. What will the Dem sound bite be? "A vote for Perry is just like a vote for bringing George W. Bush back to the White House!" Oops.
Then there are those things about his highway and giving the government land and power? Oops. Big Government guy eh? More Bushlike.
Owned by Big Oil? Of course. More Bushlike.
But here's what's worse for him. Subliminal Psychology. The stuff we don't even notice, that effects our decision making.
I voted for Bush (the good one, not the idiot). I was floored when he lost! He was the first incumbant president in history to decisively win a war that the whole nation was behind - and then lose re-election.
I used to lecture on Pyschological Profiling at USD and decided to make him a case study. Bush was a long-time spook. One of the things you learn in the biz, is misdirectional body language. Shaking your head no, while you say the word "yes", for example. Bush was a master of this and it killed him. In one speech he held his thumb and forefinger an inch apart. What does that mean to our subconscious? Small. What was he actually saying at the time? "The Hispanic community is very important to me." What was the message sent to Hispanic voters? He's lying.
In another speech, he held his hands together and then motioned them outwards. What does that mean? Pushing apart. What did he say? "I'm here to bring us together. To work as a non-partisan." Again, the subconscious message that he was lying.
Now I think he actually meant those things but he had so much training in misdirectional body language, he couldn't help himself. So whether or not he was genuine, at the subconcious level, he wasn't perceived as genuine. That cost him.
So now we come to Perry. I've been watching and listening. There are three things that make impact: Visual appearance, Vocal tones and patterns, Choice of words.
Perry dresses and moves a lot like Bush (the idiot, not the good one). He's very "down home" and Texan. Even likes cowboy boots. This is bad.
Perry's vocal tones and patterns are a LOT like W. I heard him on the radio and thought it actually was W for a second. He speaks slowly, with a Texan drawl. He pauses a lot. He laughs just a bit, here and there. He speaks in a tone that is mostly light-hearted and then varies to anywhere from serious to mildly angered. This is all classic W.
Finaly, Perry's choice of words come straight from the Texas Handbook of Politics. It works wonders at home and worked wonders for W in both elections. And if it wasn't for W, it might make a fantastic contrast to Obama. But because of the spectre of The False Texan Conservative of Elections Past, it will be a killer for him.
Add to that, the actual, legitmate challenges he faces with issues such as spending and he's cooked. It's not that people would move toward Obama, it's that hoardes of Independents, Moderates (yes, there is a difference!) and others would move away from Perry.
So like I said, I liked Perry when I lived in Texas. I think Obama sucks. But for reasons beyond the recognizable, Perry would almost definitely lose a general election. A lot of people will "just have a bad feeling" about him and not even be sure why. Remember, most people don't research candidates, couldn't tell you if the 2nd amendment has to do with guns or ice cream, and vote based on the impressions they get from 30 second sound bites. It won't be hard for the Dems to gather sound bites that make Perry seem like a virtual clone of W.
I am a fiscal conservative--tea party member and you're right. We have a candidate in Rick Perry that jumped into this race--and immediately shot up ahead of the leaders without ever seeing him in a debate.
This is national irrational behavior--and is exactly the same reason why Barack Obama is in the oval office today.
What may thrill conservatives and tea party members with loose canon one line speak--will turn off millions of independent voters--and now seniors--with his statement that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme. While I agree with what he says--you don't say that to millions of social security receipiants without a major back-blow. They VOTE too.
With Rick Perry's mouth and radical statements--I do not see him winning in the general election against a very smooth professional campaigner in Barack Obama. As we all know if you can't win the independent vote and the senior vote in this country--you can't win elections.
In my opinion Rick Perry is a walking--talking--self imploding disaster--should he win the GOP nomination for President. What may work on a Texas stage--doesn't necessarily work on a National Stage.
I think Perry would be a great Veep candidate providing he toes the line Romney's managers give him.
I don't know if he can do that.
Just judging from what I have heard come out of Rick Perry's mouth--and AGAIN I stress that I agree with him--that Romney would not pick him simply--because he wouldn't want to get hurt by any of these one liners---that are appearing to be a constant steam of WTF did he just say--
You can't have a Presidential looking candidate in Romney--and then add on your ticket someone who is capable of taking you both down.
So I doubt Romney would pick Perry as a VP.
guy, God has a MUCH bigger body count than 10,000 plus.
Here's someone who actually bothered to crunch the numbers..
Dwindling In Unbelief: How many has God killed? (Complete list and estimated total)
The numbered deaths in the bible are over 2.4 million. The estimated deaths are close to 24 million.
Oh, and how many people has Satan killed in the Bible.
10. (the Children of Job.)
Now, refresh my memory again, which one was evil?
How many people did Hitler and Stalin kill? Seems like many more.
What kind of stupid fucking comparison is this, anyway? God IS NOT A HUMAN BEING. Trying to apply human moral standards of behavior to Him is like trying to apply human moral standards of behavior to Mother Nature. Why would you even talk to someone so arrogant and childish as to say, "I expect God to behaver according to MY idea of right and wrong" in the first place? It's like arguing quantum physics with a three-year-old.
I think Perry would be a great Veep candidate providing he toes the line Romney's managers give him.
I don't know if he can do that.
Just judging from what I have heard come out of Rick Perry's mouth--and AGAIN I stress that I agree with him--that Romney would not pick him simply--because he wouldn't want to get hurt by any of these one liners---that are appearing to be a constant steam of WTF did he just say--
You can't have a Presidential looking candidate in Romney--and then add on your ticket someone who is capable of taking you both down.
So I doubt Romney would pick Perry as a VP.
And you've heard what "come out of Rick Perry's mouth" your own personal self that was so horrible that it would make Barack Obama a viable alternative to anyone who isn't an extreme leftist?
guy, God has a MUCH bigger body count than 10,000 plus.
Here's someone who actually bothered to crunch the numbers..
Dwindling In Unbelief: How many has God killed? (Complete list and estimated total)
The numbered deaths in the bible are over 2.4 million. The estimated deaths are close to 24 million.
Oh, and how many people has Satan killed in the Bible.
10. (the Children of Job.)
Now, refresh my memory again, which one was evil?
How many people did Hitler and Stalin kill? Seems like many more.
What kind of stupid fucking comparison is this, anyway? God IS NOT A HUMAN BEING. Trying to apply human moral standards of behavior to Him is like trying to apply human moral standards of behavior to Mother Nature. Why would you even talk to someone so arrogant and childish as to say, "I expect God to behaver according to MY idea of right and wrong" in the first place? It's like arguing quantum physics with a three-year-old.
I think he can win.
I think he has a very good shot at the nomination. And I think Obama is very vulnerable, which means that the GOP candidate can win. Because of Obama's vulnerability, I think most of the Republican candidates have a real shot. Perry is not as good of a general election candidate than Romney, but he still has a real shot.
Regarding Barack Obama's presumed vulnerability; Obama brought that down on his own head by being like the vast majority of the Democrats and not only going in lock-step with GOP in pretty much everything, including and especially our stupid, illegal wars abroad, but Obama has also expanded, escalated and extended many, if not most of the stuff that G. W. Bush had started while in office, including voting for the FISA Bill, and many other things that I won't list here, because it would take too long. I will, however, say this:
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Well, Governor Perry honored those who fell on 9/11 at the Texas State Cemetary with a Wreath:And Rick Perry has said WHAT that is so "radical", particularly when the alternative is a failed President? Direct quotes, if you please, not something you heard someone in the media or on the Internet tell you that Perry had said.
Just judging from what I have heard come out of Rick Perry's mouth--and AGAIN I stress that I agree with him--that Romney would not pick him simply--because he wouldn't want to get hurt by any of these one liners---that are appearing to be a constant steam of WTF did he just say--
You can't have a Presidential looking candidate in Romney--and then add on your ticket someone who is capable of taking you both down.
So I doubt Romney would pick Perry as a VP.
And you've heard what "come out of Rick Perry's mouth" your own personal self that was so horrible that it would make Barack Obama a viable alternative to anyone who isn't an extreme leftist?
Barak can be more easily beat by Romney than by Perry, definitely.
Barak can be more easily beat by Romney than by Perry, definitely.
I think he can win.
I think he has a very good shot at the nomination. And I think Obama is very vulnerable, which means that the GOP candidate can win. Because of Obama's vulnerability, I think most of the Republican candidates have a real shot. Perry is not as good of a general election candidate than Romney, but he still has a real shot.
I'm not so sure that Perry can win, because the Republicans have conducted themselves so embarrassingly in recent years. Perry seems too crazy to a lot of people, even a lot of conservatives. No person with a modicum of sanity or decency would vote for a guy like that!
Regarding Barack Obama's presumed vulnerability; Obama brought that down on his own head by being like the vast majority of the Democrats and not only going in lock-step with GOP in pretty much everything, including and especially our stupid, illegal wars abroad, but Obama has also expanded, escalated and extended many, if not most of the stuff that G. W. Bush had started while in office, including voting for the FISA Bill, and many other things that I won't list here, because it would take too long. I will, however, say this:
It should've been clear as the light of day to more people which way Obama's candidacy and Presidency were going when he voted for the FISA Bill, taken the exact same positions as McCain during the pre-POTUS 2008 election Foreign policy debate, and voted for continued funding for our war on Iraq, and anteing up our war on Afghanistan.
