Why Perry Can't Win

Discussion in 'Politics' started by IndependntLogic, Aug 20, 2011.

  1. IndependntLogic
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    IndependntLogic Senior Member

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    The GOP / Tea Party / Libertarians have a real quandry on their hands with this guy. I really liked him when we lived in Sugar Land, TX but we were pretty insulated from the poor / lower-middle-class there. I have to admit, I was not paying attention to a lot that was going on. I thought all was fine.

    So the biggest debacle the Conservs have had recently (in the eyes of everyone but themselves) was the debt ceiling. Polls ranged anywhere from 65% - 78% of people thinking the GOP handled it disastrously. Doesn't matter if they were right or had a point, elections are won based on perception - and the perception was overwhelmingly poor. This was one of the few areas in which Obama (although he too had poor ratings) came out looking WAY better than the GOP. So debt is a key issue.
    What's Perry's record on debt? Oops. What will the Dem sound bite be? "A vote for Perry is just like a vote for bringing George W. Bush back to the White House!" Oops.
    Then there are those things about his highway and giving the government land and power? Oops. Big Government guy eh? More Bushlike.
    Owned by Big Oil? Of course. More Bushlike.

    But here's what's worse for him. Subliminal Psychology. The stuff we don't even notice, that effects our decision making.
    I voted for Bush (the good one, not the idiot). I was floored when he lost! He was the first incumbant president in history to decisively win a war that the whole nation was behind - and then lose re-election.
    I used to lecture on Pyschological Profiling at USD and decided to make him a case study. Bush was a long-time spook. One of the things you learn in the biz, is misdirectional body language. Shaking your head no, while you say the word "yes", for example. Bush was a master of this and it killed him. In one speech he held his thumb and forefinger an inch apart. What does that mean to our subconscious? Small. What was he actually saying at the time? "The Hispanic community is very important to me." What was the message sent to Hispanic voters? He's lying.
    In another speech, he held his hands together and then motioned them outwards. What does that mean? Pushing apart. What did he say? "I'm here to bring us together. To work as a non-partisan." Again, the subconscious message that he was lying.
    Now I think he actually meant those things but he had so much training in misdirectional body language, he couldn't help himself. So whether or not he was genuine, at the subconcious level, he wasn't perceived as genuine. That cost him.
    So now we come to Perry. I've been watching and listening. There are three things that make impact: Visual appearance, Vocal tones and patterns, Choice of words.
    Perry dresses and moves a lot like Bush (the idiot, not the good one). He's very "down home" and Texan. Even likes cowboy boots. This is bad.
    Perry's vocal tones and patterns are a LOT like W. I heard him on the radio and thought it actually was W for a second. He speaks slowly, with a Texan drawl. He pauses a lot. He laughs just a bit, here and there. He speaks in a tone that is mostly light-hearted and then varies to anywhere from serious to mildly angered. This is all classic W.
    Finaly, Perry's choice of words come straight from the Texas Handbook of Politics. It works wonders at home and worked wonders for W in both elections. And if it wasn't for W, it might make a fantastic contrast to Obama. But because of the spectre of The False Texan Conservative of Elections Past, it will be a killer for him.
    Add to that, the actual, legitmate challenges he faces with issues such as spending and he's cooked. It's not that people would move toward Obama, it's that hoardes of Independents, Moderates (yes, there is a difference!) and others would move away from Perry.
    So like I said, I liked Perry when I lived in Texas. I think Obama sucks. But for reasons beyond the recognizable, Perry would almost definitely lose a general election. A lot of people will "just have a bad feeling" about him and not even be sure why. Remember, most people don't research candidates, couldn't tell you if the 2nd amendment has to do with guns or ice cream, and vote based on the impressions they get from 30 second sound bites. It won't be hard for the Dems to gather sound bites that make Perry seem like a virtual clone of W.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 20, 2011
  2. Greenbeard
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    Greenbeard Gold Member

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    I tend to agree that this is a serious negative for him. After all the work the Republican base has done over the past 3 years re-branding itself as the Tea Party in order to distance itself from George W. Bush, to turn around and nominate a guy whose mannerisms and speech patterns immediately evoke visceral associations with Bush is risky. The fact that Perry attained his office by virtue of being Bush's lieutenant governor when W. departed for the White House probably won't help dispel the mental association.

    When I'm tempted to give the average voter more credit, I think of how many folks can no longer distinguish Tina Fey's Sarah Palin from the actual Palin (granted, the distinctions between the two weren't as pronounced or exaggerated as some other spoofs, like Chevy Chase's Ford falls, which is alarming in and of itself).

    Would be an interesting experiment, though.
     
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  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    I think he can win.

    I think he has a very good shot at the nomination. And I think Obama is very vulnerable, which means that the GOP candidate can win. Because of Obama's vulnerability, I think most of the Republican candidates have a real shot. Perry is not as good of a general election candidate than Romney, but he still has a real shot.
     
  4. LordBrownTrout
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    LordBrownTrout Gold Member

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    Perry or Romney will beat O if things are anywhere near what they are now with the state of the union......and that's not saying anything. Right now, O would only carry CA, IL, and NY.
     
  5. IndependntLogic
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    IndependntLogic Senior Member

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    Okay, given Obama's extremely poor performance, I guess it was a bit strong to say that Perry "Can't win". Fine he has a shot, albeit a long shot. I think the GOP would be better off with Paul than Perry - and that's saying something because Paul seems unelectable. But at least he wouldn't be perceived thus: W was horrible. Obama is W part II, Here comes Perry - W Part III.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2011
  6. Douger
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    Douger BANNED

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    He IS your next pResident. Take it to the bank.
     
  7. LordBrownTrout
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    LordBrownTrout Gold Member

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    ....."But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

    Sad that some would run away from this.....to another country.
     
  8. BoycottTheday
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    BoycottTheday CEO

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    Obama's only hope is if there isnt a next election.
     
  9. M.D. Rawlings
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    M.D. Rawlings Classical Liberal

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    Why Perry will win if he gets the nomination: He ain't Obama.
     
  10. BDBoop
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    The only R I see as having a serious shot is Sarah Palin.
     

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