Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama

[Remodeling Maidiac]

The Republican Party is 90% white. The race card is the first one they play.

And you are 90% ignorant, ignorance is the first thing you display.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

By Mark Blumenthal

WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance.

Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. It has measured presidential job approval and vote preference without interruption since the 1940s and now conducts a daily tracking poll that reaches more than 3,600 adults every week -- a volume of data that dwarfs that produced by other firms. As a result, Gallup's numbers enjoy unique influence and public prominence.

Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.

The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today.

Much More: Race Matters: Why Gallup Polls Find Less Support For President Obama

NOTE: This is very interesting if you care about the reliability of the Obama/Romney polls. The above link is complete with charts/graphs and lots of live supporting links.

I'd say because he's a total fuck up who can no longer pretend to be a fiscal Conservative and political moderate

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Republican Party is 90% white. The race card is the first one they play.

A certified 6% Derp Post

 

[Oddball]

By Mark Blumenthal

WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance.

Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. It has measured presidential job approval and vote preference without interruption since the 1940s and now conducts a daily tracking poll that reaches more than 3,600 adults every week -- a volume of data that dwarfs that produced by other firms. As a result, Gallup's numbers enjoy unique influence and public prominence.

Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.

The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today.

Much More: Race Matters: Why Gallup Polls Find Less Support For President Obama

NOTE: This is very interesting if you care about the reliability of the Obama/Romney polls. The above link is complete with charts/graphs and lots of live supporting links.

I'd say because he's a total fuck up who can no longer pretend to be a fiscal Conservative and political moderate

...and not even Gallup can paper that one over anymore.

 

[Oddball]

The Republican Party is 90% white. The race card is the first one they play.

What's your excuse for playing the derp card 94% of the time?

 

[Mad Scientist]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

But if he was elected because he's black, why would it be wrong to boot him out for the same reason?

 

[Amelia]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

But if he was elected because he's black, why would it be wrong to boot him out for the same reason?

That's not what the article is about. Not even remotely.

 

[Sarah G]

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

redean is like a black hole when it comes to intelligence.

The irony..

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.

Anybody with half a brain knows that the media is in the tank for Dems/Obama. Why should their polls be any different?

And btw, it's an erroneous premise to say that there's gallup and then everything else. Generally, gallup polls do match-up with various other polls.

The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today.

I like that the Huffington Post did "independent analysis." How nice.

And if it's a racial sampling error then how do they explain Bush's woeful approval ratings?

 

[naturegirl]

Polls don't know............think Wisconsin, especially the exit polls.

Obama is just not going to be the first black president ever again. The novelty is gone, we know what he's made of and he's just not as "cool" as he once was. Wonder where his "Choom Gang" got off to?? I'll bet he'll be looking for them come Jan 21, 2013.

 

[oreo]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

IT'S THE RACE CARD --- STUPID!----

 

[Charles_Main]

If I read correctly, they are underrepresented because they are more likely not to have phones.

What percentage of people without phones vote, as compared to the voting percentages of people with phones? Is predictive use of the poll that seriously impacted by not considering who owns phones and not trying to readjust the poll demographics to more closely match census demographics?

I don't know, but certainly some percentage of them do vote - likely for Obama.

By filtering out the non-telephone households, Gallup slightly underestimates the number of blacks and Hispanics in the full population.

Yep, Pretty much all of the Less Educated, Less Informed Seem to wanna Re-elect Obama. go Figure.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Polls don't know............think Wisconsin, especially the exit polls.

Obama is just not going to be the first black president ever again. The novelty is gone, we know what he's made of and he's just not as "cool" as he once was. Wonder where his "Choom Gang" got off to?? I'll bet he'll be looking for them come Jan 21, 2013.

Obama had a great opportunity to be the uniter he promised to be. But he never had any intention of doing so. He will be a one term president b/c of his actions. However, this nation is severely divided now more than ever thanks to his racial politics; especially as it relates to enabling his contemporaries.

 

[SniperFire]

People are not willing to tell a pollster that they won't be voting for the black guy this time around.

It is called the Bradley Effect.

This will be a rout.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Gallup poll is now racist. Uh....okay.

 

[skookerasbil]

Another stupid-ass thread by Lakota.

s0n......nobody cares.

Bottom line............most polls have Obama well below 50%. Incumbents under 50% in the general election always take it on the chin ( well, at least for the past 50 years).

If Im a Dum though, Im looking at the fact that the past two weeks, Obama has been spending enormous amounts of $$ in Pennsylvania. Anybody who needs the significance of this explained to them should be posting on People.com and not a POLITICS message board.

 

[salem.hills]

No poll is going to get you what your looking for ---> hope is it?
Its not important the polls don't win or lose elections? But if you want an educated guess where your guy stands......see 2010

 

[Trajan]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

humm, Ras polled and polls ( Likely voters hello in this time frame) and got the election almost exactly right, they were closest.......how is that? they've had one oops in the last 8 elections...how is that? why don't you take this bloomberg survey and tell me what their sampling is and how they derived it and why its an outlier?

go ahead, I will wait..

Obama Leads in Poll as Voters View Romney as Out of Touch - Bloomberg


RCP Average 5/16 - 6/20 -- 47.9 47.8 +0.1
Gallup 6/18 - 6/20 1500 A 43 49 -6
Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 47 52 -5
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 1002 A 53 44 +9
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 1007 A 49 48 +1
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 2013 A 47 45 +2
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 1099 A 47 50 -3
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 49 45 +4

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

People are not willing to tell a pollster that they won't be voting for the black guy this time around.

It is called the Bradley Effect.

This will be a rout.

Nice. I forgot all about that.