Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama

[Lakhota]

By Mark Blumenthal

WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance.

Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. It has measured presidential job approval and vote preference without interruption since the 1940s and now conducts a daily tracking poll that reaches more than 3,600 adults every week -- a volume of data that dwarfs that produced by other firms. As a result, Gallup's numbers enjoy unique influence and public prominence.

Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.

The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today.

Much More: Race Matters: Why Gallup Polls Find Less Support For President Obama

NOTE: This is very interesting if you care about the reliability of the Obama/Romney polls. The above link is complete with charts/graphs and lots of live supporting links.

 

[Clementine]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

 

[Lakhota]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

 

[Amelia]

If I read correctly, they are underrepresented because they are more likely not to have phones.

What percentage of people without phones vote, as compared to the voting percentages of people with phones? Is predictive use of the poll that seriously impacted by not considering who owns phones and not trying to readjust the poll demographics to more closely match census demographics?

 

[buckeye45_73]

Man are you part of the DNC or the Obama reelection team. My God you spew out more propaganda than Goebbels.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

 

[Lakhota]

If I read correctly, they are underrepresented because they are more likely not to have phones.

What percentage of people without phones vote, as compared to the voting percentages of people with phones? Is predictive use of the poll that seriously impacted by not considering who owns phones and not trying to readjust the poll demographics to more closely match census demographics?

I don't know, but certainly some percentage of them do vote - likely for Obama.

By filtering out the non-telephone households, Gallup slightly underestimates the number of blacks and Hispanics in the full population.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

Because it's not favoring his boy, Obama. This guys is up there with Chris, Jake, derps and all those other liberal morons that cant keep their lips off of Obama's ass.

 

[Lakhota]

Playing the race card on Gallup. Okay, then.

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

It's an issue today because the Obama/McCain race wasn't close. The Obama/Romney race is close and will remain so until November.

 

[Amelia]

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

Because it's not favoring his boy, Obama. This guys is up there with Chris, Jake, derps and all those other liberal morons that cant keep their lips off of Obama's ass.

I initially made a snarky post but then I deleted it. Lakhota does often post rdean-esque threads but this one actually is kinda interesting.

And yes, I think that HuffPo probably did the study because they don't like the thought that Gallup might give Romney an edge where others wouldn't. But it's still an issue worth considering.

 

[buckeye45_73]

According to the OP, it's actually a failure on Gallup's part to adequately take race into account when conducting Obama/Romney polling - resulting in under-representation of black and Hispanic Americans.

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

It's an issue today because the Obama/McCain race wasn't close. The Obama/Romney race is close and will remain so until November.

Oh please you dont complain when they give a 3% win in PA to the democrats as soon as the polls close, but they wait like an hour to call at 30% win in Utah for the republicans. Stop with the crocodile tears.

 

[Lakhota]

Yet, such was not the case in 2008? Why is it an issue today?

Gallup Daily: Election 2008

Because it's not favoring his boy, Obama. This guys is up there with Chris, Jake, derps and all those other liberal morons that cant keep their lips off of Obama's ass.

I initially made a snarky post but then I deleted it. Lakhota does often post rdean-esque threads but this one actually is kinda interesting.

And yes, I think that HuffPo probably did the study because they don't like the thought that Gallup might give Romney an edge where others wouldn't. But it's still an issue worth considering.

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Because it's not favoring his boy, Obama. This guys is up there with Chris, Jake, derps and all those other liberal morons that cant keep their lips off of Obama's ass.

I initially made a snarky post but then I deleted it. Lakhota does often post rdean-esque threads but this one actually is kinda interesting.

And yes, I think that HuffPo probably did the study because they don't like the thought that Gallup might give Romney an edge where others wouldn't. But it's still an issue worth considering.

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

hold on there Goebels, Dean is a pos. Atleast I am honest, I dont kiss ass on everything republican. All I get from you is Obama is too far right, which tells me you're insane, but you kiss his ass constantly.
I'd love to have a better candidate than Romney, how's that for honesty, but he's better than the Marxist in chief.
Check out my part of the thread on facism with "moderate" Jake (moderate may in the Reign of Terror leadership moderate)
I love to tangle with left wingers and people who try to say what they're not. I'm far right, I'll admit it, and you're crazy ass left, but wont admit it. And you're an Obama ass kisser.

 

[bripat9643]

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

redean is like a black hole when it comes to intelligence.

 

[Lakhota]

I initially made a snarky post but then I deleted it. Lakhota does often post rdean-esque threads but this one actually is kinda interesting.

And yes, I think that HuffPo probably did the study because they don't like the thought that Gallup might give Romney an edge where others wouldn't. But it's still an issue worth considering.

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

hold on there Goebels, Dean is a pos. Atleast I am honest, I dont kiss ass on everything republican. All I get from you is Obama is too far right, which tells me you're insane, but you kiss his ass constantly.
I'd love to have a better candidate than Romney, how's that for honesty, but he's better than the Marxist in chief.
Check out my part of the thread on facism with "moderate" Jake (moderate may in the Reign of Terror leadership moderate)
I love to tangle with left wingers and people who try to say what they're not. I'm far right, I'll admit it, and you're crazy ass left, but wont admit it. And you're an Obama ass kisser.

Why do you insist on responding to posts that are not addressed to you? Are you really that desperate for attention?

 

[buckeye45_73]

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

redean is like a black hole when it comes to intelligence.

He's the head of the Lakota think tank, and they have an Obama statue where they kiss his ass everytime they enter and leave the room.

 

[Amelia]

Because it's not favoring his boy, Obama. This guys is up there with Chris, Jake, derps and all those other liberal morons that cant keep their lips off of Obama's ass.

I initially made a snarky post but then I deleted it. Lakhota does often post rdean-esque threads but this one actually is kinda interesting.

And yes, I think that HuffPo probably did the study because they don't like the thought that Gallup might give Romney an edge where others wouldn't. But it's still an issue worth considering.

Oh, and the right doesn't? I intentionally post a mixture of substantive and rdean-esque threads to piss off wingnuts. By the way, rdean is no dummy. He is obviously more honest, intelligent, and better informed than most of the wingnuts on this board. There are very few on the right who post with honor.

I'm naturally not as aware of the rightwing troll threads. They aren't designed to ping my radar.

I just know that I have a few people on the left tuned out. Luddly-neddite for one. I have to be really bored to open one of his threads. And rdean for another. For awhile there was some entertainment value in seeing how many sentences he went before he tossed in one of this trademark derp lines, but now I just don't even notice. And sorry to say, you, but I was interested in this topic and opened it and was glad. So maybe I'll stick around for a couple more threads of yours ... by posting an informational thread without gratuitous partisan slams in the OP you've earned the power to ping me a couple of times.

 

[rdean]

The Republican Party is 90% white. The race card is the first one they play.

 

[blackhawk]

Pretty soon the left will be calling Gallup a right wing group and a extension of the Republican party.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Lahkota is a terrible hack and a disgusting individual.