Why does Dick Morris still have Romney ahead by 7 pts?

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Fuck off, loser. The ignore feature was invented for losers.

No it was invented for assholes like you and I'm glad my use of it pisses you off....CHILD

 

[LoneLaugher]

Fuck off, loser. The ignore feature was invented for losers.

No it was invented for assholes like you and I'm glad my use of it pisses you off....CHILD

So you can't hang. Understood.

 

[edthecynic]

Morris cites interlal polls.

Guy must know something - has been around.......................................

As we know--the national polls have been oversampling democrats to republicans and leaving independents out of the equation. They're also using 2010 voter turn-out to give these very unrealistic polling data to show Obama ahead.

Here is a good example:

CNN a couple of weeks ago showed Obama leading by 6 points over Romney in a national poll.

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.

First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Of course then last Quinnipac released several swing state polls showing Obama ahead in every one of them--again by over-polling democrats to republicans and only adding a 1% sample of Independents.

Jammie Wearing catches the NY Times/Quinnipiac poll dramatically skewing the methodology of the poll to strongly over-sample Democrats:

So Obama is up 9 in Florida with a D+9 sample, up 10 in Ohio with a D+9 sample and up 12 in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample. I notice in all the orgasmic news reports this morning none of them mention the ridiculous skew to the polls. But all you will hear all day is how big a lead Obama has.

Never trust a word they say: NY Times, Quinnipiac skew polling in attempt to depress turnout of voters frustrated with the failures of Obamanomics « Bob Owens

So here is the un-manipulation chart--(that btw) does not include the correct amount of independents who favor Romney now by 15 points. You'll see that Romney is leading in these swing states.
James Carville Poll Panics Dems: Romney Leads By 15 Points Among Independents « Pat Dollard

I imagine this has something to do with what Dick Morris is talking about. Basically the polls are telling us that the same amount of people are going to come out and vote for Barack Obama as they did in 2008--and that the Republicans that showed up in 2010 which resulted in an historic 75 year butt kicking of democrats across this country won't be voting this year along with independents--who Romney leads by 15 points---

Notice how they have even abandoned Ratmuffin, who has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Fuck off, loser. The ignore feature was invented for losers.

No it was invented for assholes like you and I'm glad my use of it pisses you off....CHILD

So you can't hang. Understood.

I GAVE you an opportunity to keep me hanging and you were too stupid to take it. You're clearly not worthy of reading.

 

[LoneLaugher]

What are you asking about? You GAVE me something? What a load of shit.

 

[blackhawk]

Find me a poll of likely voters only with the breakdown 35% Democrat 35% Republican and 30% independent with no spin no oversampling of either party and let's see what the results would be. I think you would find a dead heat.

 

[AceRothstein]

Find me a poll of likely voters only with the breakdown 35% Democrat 35% Republican and 30% independent with no spin no oversampling of either party and let's see what the results would be. I think you would find a dead heat.

That isn't the true breakdown and it isn't how polling works.

 

[blackhawk]

Find me a poll of likely voters only with the breakdown 35% Democrat 35% Republican and 30% independent with no spin no oversampling of either party and let's see what the results would be. I think you would find a dead heat.

That isn't the true breakdown and it isn't how polling works.

Neither is using a model from four years ago or oversampling one group.

 

[AceRothstein]

Find me a poll of likely voters only with the breakdown 35% Democrat 35% Republican and 30% independent with no spin no oversampling of either party and let's see what the results would be. I think you would find a dead heat.

That isn't the true breakdown and it isn't how polling works.

Neither is using a model from four years ago or oversampling one group.

If that is how polling worked, you'd be right. But that isn't how it works.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Just remember nutters............ANYTHING is possible. Now, go find yer binkie before you throw a tantrum.

 

[editec]

Arguing about polling results?

Why?

Seriously, what's the point?

The polls may be right or wrong, but nobody on this board can mount a coherent argument one way or the other about why any of these polls are right or wrong.

None of you have seen the poll, none of you are familiar with how they were conducted, so none of you can explain how or why a poll is right or wrong, either.



So what are people really doing when they argue about polls?

Nothing more than announcing that they want this poll to be right or wrong.


It's just a damned silly exercise in partisanship to have debates about polls, kids.

It doesn't advance you cause, it doesn't impress your opponents, it serves no purpose whatever.

 

[JoeB131]

Morris cites interlal polls.

Guy must know something - has been around.......................................

Dick Morris is a bitter ex-Democrat whose friends rejected him because he embarrassed president Clinton.

Nothing more complicated than that.