Why do we think Iraqis will ever get along?

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by maineman, May 21, 2007.

  1. maineman
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    maineman BANNED

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    Iraq, as we know it was cobbled together by the victors of the first world war as they divided the spoils of the Ottoman empire. Kurds, shi'ites and sunnis were thrown together under one mandate run by the brits who had a hell of a time keeping the peace from 1919 until they gave the mess up to a king from Saudi Arabia and his henchmen. Since then, Iraq has been ruled by a series of hashemite kings until the Iraqi army held a successful coup in 1958..and the ba'athists overthrew them in 1968.... and throughout it all, the sunnis and the shi'ites have hated one another... and they have hated one another pretty much non-stop since around 750AD.

    If one reads he Arab Mind by Raphael Patai, one gains an appreciation for the hierarchy of loyalties that rule the arabs. That hierarchy is extremely rigid and is never broached. It goes: family then clan then sect and only then, country. I do not think that we have any right to assume that arab men and women in Iraq will set aside a cultural edict that has ruled their ethnicity for a millennium just because a bunch of Christian crusaders from America let them dip their fingers in some ink and get a taste of democracy.

    I firmly believe that, whenever America leaves Iraq, that the country will rapidly devolve into sectarian violence. If we continue to train sunni and shi'ite members of the Iraqi military, and continue to incur our own casualties during that process, the end result will be: we WILL leave Iraq someday and our body count will grow in an increasingly steep curve until that time, and then, when we leave, the Iraqi army will devolve into sunni and shi'ite militias and, based upon how long we spend training them, those militias will be that much more efficient at killing one another and every civilian that gets in their way.

    I firmly believe that Iraq is destined to be a shi'ite quasi-theocracy and it will be closely aligned with its sectarian brothers in shi'ite Iran. It is not a question of IF, it is only a question of WHEN.

    Those on here who spew this bullshit about Al Qaeda getting their hands on Iraqi oil do not understand that the shi'ites will NEVER let a handful of deadenders in their final throes - a bunch of interlopers of the minority sect - to control ANYTHING in Iraq. AQ will undoubtedly inflict a great deal of carnage on both sunnis, shiites and Americans until we leave, and then, they will continue to inflict carnage on shi'ites primarily and secondarily, on sunni ba'athists who don't want to play their game and who do not buy into their wahabbist vision of a sunni caliphate.

    In summary, this PNAC vision of a multi-cultural Jeffersonian democracy blossoming on the banks of the Euphrates and acting as America's best pal and super-friend ally in the middle east linking arms with us in the struggle against islamic extremism and simultaneously acting as a source for plentiful and cheap oil that they will sell their American corporate petro-buddies at a discount out of gratitude for ridding them of Saddam and introducing them to the joys of participatory democracy....that is now, and has always been, a fucking pipe dream and a dangerously costly mistake that has made the region less safe and made America less safe. To continue to spill American blood on Iraqi sand just to avoid admitting we fucked up in the first place is criminal.

    And further, to express that belief is NOT traitorous, but profoundly patriotic.
     
  2. CSM
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    CSM Senior Member

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    I was with you right up until "To continue to spill American blood on Iraqi sand just to avoid admitting we fucked up in the first place is criminal." By the way, when I said I was with you, I meant I followed your logic, not necessarily agreed with it.

    While that statement is true in itself, your implication that it is the ONLY reason we stay in Iraq is not necessarily true. That, along with the rest of that paragraph is pretty much whimsical rhetoric, but I understand why you say it.

    Also, I bet there are some soldiers resent your referring to them as "Christian Crusaders"...again the implication that all soldiers are Christian is BS.

    If one can get past all the intentional inflamatory crap, you make some valid points.
     
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  3. maineman
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    maineman BANNED

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    I am sorry if my rhetoric is inflamed... this war has inflamed my anger. I am not implying that avoiding admitting our error is the ONLY reason we stay... I truly believe that there are neocon disciples of the PNAC vision that truly believe if we just hold on a little longer...if we just can endure a few thousand more dead Americans, that those darned Iraqis will come to realize that getting along with each other and being the recipient of American friendship and largesse is worth forgetting about a millennium's worth of enmity. I truly believe that there are those in this administration who do sincerely believe that the Iraqis should have no overriding reason to NOT get along that is more important than peaceful coexistence.

    And let's not forget that Bush himself first referred to this as a "crusade" long before I did...and if you think for a minute that the minuscule single digit percentage of American troops who are NOT Christian will somehow make the presence of our forces in Islamic holy cities any more palatable to the Iraqis, please remember that the presence of our infidel forces in Saudi holy ground was the number one reason we were attacked on 9/11.

    But, in any case, you know I value your input and your counsel. Let's keep talking.
     
  4. hjmick
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    hjmick Gold Member

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    Why do we think Iraqis will ever get along?

    Because we, as Americans, are by our very nature optimists.
     
  5. maineman
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    maineman BANNED

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    I hope you aren't suggesting that it makes sense to let irrational optimism be the guiding force in our nation's foreign policy?
     
  6. Gunny
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    Gunny Gold Member

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    Your initial post pretty-much spells it out ... Iraq may be drawn on paper as one Nation, but it is in fact made of three ethnicities with three distinct identities all of which posess the trait of hating the others.

    The only thing that is going to enforce peace on them is force, and politics will not allow the US to use the politically incorrect force necessary to do so.

    You also make a very good argument in the "Iran is the REAL threat" category. I would be interested to know why you think the shia will triumph over the sunni/whabbi.

    But like CSM, I could do without the rhetoric.;)
     
  7. maineman
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    maineman BANNED

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    I think the shia will triumph because of sheer numbers and because they have got the bitter taste of nearly forty years of ba'athist oppression in their mouths.... AND because they have a fiery leader in al Sadr that will not let them forget it.
     
  8. hjmick
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    hjmick Gold Member

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    Not at all. I am simply suggesting that, even today, after all we've seen over there, despite our individual feelings for the President, for this war, I believe that most Americans still hold out hope that the Iraqi's will get it together.

    I could be wrong.
     
  9. maineman
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    maineman BANNED

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    you could be wrong that they will get it together, or you could be wrong that most Americans still hold out hope that they will? ;)

    Don't get me wrong....I certainly HOPE that Iraqi sunnis, shi'ites and kurds all gather together for a rousing chorus of Kumbaya and get along for the rest of eternity like bosom buddies. That does not mean that I give my hopes in that instance a snowball's chance in hell of coming to fruition. Similarly, I hope that the Boston Celtics will win the NBA championship next year.
     
  10. hjmick
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    hjmick Gold Member

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    LOL. The Iraqi's have a better chance of getting their act together by next year than the Celtics have of winning it all! The Lakers too for that matter!

    What can I say? I'm an optimist. At the same time I realize that the odds are they will continue to fight each other if not until I'm dead then at least until I am a very old man.
     

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