Why do we continue to pretend there is an untapped black talent pool?

[IanC]

The National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) are a set of surveys designed to gather information at multiple points in time on the labor market activities and other significant life events of several groups of men and women. For more than 4 decades, NLS data have served as an important tool for economists, sociologists, and other researchers.

so you think the overall intentions of this survey are suspect? well you have previously stated that all stats are unacceptable unless every person in the group is polled, an impossibility.

you said-

Exact numbers do matter very much. If fact, that is the MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR.

you obviously don't work in an area that measures humans. height, weight, blood pressure, temperature; all fluctuate daily. if you had ever taken any science courses in school you would know that measurements have an error range and just because you can generate a number to five decimal places that doesnt mean it is as accurate as it is precise. that is why I say the trend is more important than the numbers. if 100 studies give 100 different correlation rates from 0.01 to 0.80 that is a large spread and the numbers are not that reliable. but if every one of the 100 studies points in the same direction then that is significant.

you said-

You are right. I think we can agree with high and low IQ's can be ASSOCIATED with positive and negative social outcomes respectively.

This is where you weaken your position or invalidate your claim, you begin to SPECULATE. Speculation is a BIG no no in logic.

Speculate - (transitive verb) to reason WITHOUT sufficient or conclusive evidence. The Free Dictionary, Webster, Cambridge Dictionary.

you say I am speculating but the studies done on general mental ability and job performance (and school performance) are undeniable and all point in the same direction. can you find a study that doesn't find that higher IQ/aptitude isn't positively related to job performance? especially as job complexity goes up?

in my OP I inferred that Africa was in trouble because there is a shortage of high IQ individuals to fill skilled and complex professions. are you arguing against this obvious statement? do you honestly think that an IQ85 individual can become a competent western trained physician? electrical engineer? air traffic controller? there are only a few percent of africans who score IQ100, at best only one in twenty. all the important jobs need more than just one in twenty. how about the teaching jobs, nursing positions, secretarial, management, millwright, etc jobs? modern civilizations need skilled workers and africa doesn't have them and can't train them.

 

[Joe_Penalty]

The National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) are a set of surveys designed to gather information at multiple points in time on the labor market activities and other significant life events of several groups of men and women. For more than 4 decades, NLS data have served as an important tool for economists, sociologists, and other researchers.

so you think the overall intentions of this survey are suspect? well you have previously stated that all stats are unacceptable unless every person in the group is polled, an impossibility.

you said-

Exact numbers do matter very much. If fact, that is the MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR.

you obviously don't work in an area that measures humans. height, weight, blood pressure, temperature; all fluctuate daily. if you had ever taken any science courses in school you would know that measurements have an error range and just because you can generate a number to five decimal places that doesnt mean it is as accurate as it is precise. that is why I say the trend is more important than the numbers. if 100 studies give 100 different correlation rates from 0.01 to 0.80 that is a large spread and the numbers are not that reliable. but if every one of the 100 studies points in the same direction then that is significant.

you said-

You are right. I think we can agree with high and low IQ's can be ASSOCIATED with positive and negative social outcomes respectively.

This is where you weaken your position or invalidate your claim, you begin to SPECULATE. Speculation is a BIG no no in logic.

Speculate - (transitive verb) to reason WITHOUT sufficient or conclusive evidence. The Free Dictionary, Webster, Cambridge Dictionary.

you say I am speculating but the studies done on general mental ability and job performance (and school performance) are undeniable and all point in the same direction. can you find a study that doesn't find that higher IQ/aptitude isn't positively related to job performance? especially as job complexity goes up?

in my OP I inferred that Africa was in trouble because there is a shortage of high IQ individuals to fill skilled and complex professions. are you arguing against this obvious statement? do you honestly think that an IQ85 individual can become a competent western trained physician? electrical engineer? air traffic controller? there are only a few percent of africans who score IQ100, at best only one in twenty. all the important jobs need more than just one in twenty. how about the teaching jobs, nursing positions, secretarial, management, millwright, etc jobs? modern civilizations need skilled workers and africa doesn't have them and can't train them.

I stand by what I said about statistics. They (statistics) do NOT fly well in Logic. This may NOT serve as the best example, but it should show the point. Pay attention to the language used in the examples. PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING. Inductive Reasoning.

About error and uncertainty; that was my point exactly. How can someone build a sturdy argument on shaky statistics? This is ALL inductive reasoning. Numbers are the most important factor. The statistics ONLY serve as strength (if any). That is if and only if, the statistics are very precise and accurate, and are very detailed and very specific. If an argument and or a study both lack in explicitness, then the argument and or the study can be seen as lacking information. If this is true, how can one make an informed decision with the lack of information.

Questioning my Science background? What are you basing that on? The word science is so broad, which science courses?

About speculation, this is why I believe people should not break up posts. The posts are then easily taken out of context. The speculation part was for everything following that statement. Which is what you did in the last part of your argument. When you stated "let us make some predictions" or let us speculate.

 

[IanC]

How can someone build a sturdy argument on shaky statistics?

the stats are as solid as a rock for IQ and job performance.

why don't you find your own stats that support your ideas why africa is such a mess? because you dont write down any concrete ideas that can be falsified. you stick to generalities, you praise semantics over substance, and know in your heart that facts will disagree with your world view.

 

[Joe_Penalty]

How can someone build a sturdy argument on shaky statistics?

the stats are as solid as a rock for IQ and job performance.

why don't you find your own stats that support your ideas why africa is such a mess? because you dont write down any concrete ideas that can be falsified. you stick to generalities, you praise semantics over substance, and know in your heart that facts will disagree with your world view.

I got you, but I have a question.

What was the sample size in each case study you referenced?

 

[IanC]

How can someone build a sturdy argument on shaky statistics?

the stats are as solid as a rock for IQ and job performance.

why don't you find your own stats that support your ideas why africa is such a mess? because you dont write down any concrete ideas that can be falsified. you stick to generalities, you praise semantics over substance, and know in your heart that facts will disagree with your world view.

I got you, but I have a question.

What was the sample size in each case study you referenced?

pick one, we'll talk about it

 

[IanC]

joe- did you read this link? I would cut and paste more info but it is a PDF and the google html is crappy.

The Role of Pre-Market Factors in Black-White Wage Differences

Derek A. Neal
University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

William R. Johnson
University of Virginia


1995-05-01

NBER Working Paper No. W5124


Abstract:
Many attempts to measure the wage effects of current labor market discrimination against minorities include controls for worker productivity that (1) could themselves be affected by market discrimination and (2) are very imprecise measures of worker skill. The resulting estimates of residual wage gaps may be biased. Our approach is a parsimoniously specified wage equation which controls for skill with the score of a test administered as teenagers prepared to leave high school and embark on work careers or post-secondary education. Independent evidence shows that this test score is a racially unbiased measure of the skills and abilities these teenagers were about to bring to the labor market. We find that this one test score explains all of the black-white wage gap for young women and much of the gap for young men. For today's young adults, the black-white wage gap primarily reflects a skill gap, which in turn can be traced, at least in part, to observable differences in the family backgrounds and school environments of black and white children. While our results do provide some evidence of current labor market discrimination, skill gaps play such a large role that we believe future research should focus on the obstacles black children face in acquiring productive skills.

it uses the NLSY data, and the armed forces study on racial performance compared to aptitude performance. all large scale studies.

and the important thing is that the vast majority (maybe all) of studies all point in the same direction. intelligence matters

 

[Joe_Penalty]

joe- did you read this link? I would cut and paste more info but it is a PDF and the google html is crappy.

The Role of Pre-Market Factors in Black-White Wage Differences

Derek A. Neal
University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

William R. Johnson
University of Virginia


1995-05-01

NBER Working Paper No. W5124


Abstract:
Many attempts to measure the wage effects of current labor market discrimination against minorities include controls for worker productivity that (1) could themselves be affected by market discrimination and (2) are very imprecise measures of worker skill. The resulting estimates of residual wage gaps may be biased. Our approach is a parsimoniously specified wage equation which controls for skill with the score of a test administered as teenagers prepared to leave high school and embark on work careers or post-secondary education. Independent evidence shows that this test score is a racially unbiased measure of the skills and abilities these teenagers were about to bring to the labor market. We find that this one test score explains all of the black-white wage gap for young women and much of the gap for young men. For today's young adults, the black-white wage gap primarily reflects a skill gap, which in turn can be traced, at least in part, to observable differences in the family backgrounds and school environments of black and white children. While our results do provide some evidence of current labor market discrimination, skill gaps play such a large role that we believe future research should focus on the obstacles black children face in acquiring productive skills.

it uses the NLSY data, and the armed forces study on racial performance compared to aptitude performance. all large scale studies.

and the important thing is that the vast majority (maybe all) of studies all point in the same direction. intelligence matters

I think that is better use of inductive argument terminology. You stated "vast majority," "MAYBE" all, good work.

That study does NOT appear to have a hidden agenda. But I would like to know something.

What was the sample size in that study?

 

[IanC]

I think that is better use of inductive argument terminology. You stated "vast majority," "MAYBE" all, good work.

That study does NOT appear to have a hidden agenda. But I would like to know something.

What was the sample size in that study? __________________

that's it?????

you read that study and the only thing you want to discuss is how many people were in the study???

it is the main nation survey that is used in all fields. if you want to find out the (exact) number of participants just go to the NLSY web site. it gives answers to all the questions you can ask and more besides. you're interested in how representative the sample is? they explain it.

dude...I'm disappointed in your intellectual shallowness. there are so many interesting ideas in that study, presented in a politically correct way, and yet you come away with no personal thoughts on it.

go ahead. you've found your niche. just keep on correcting commenters' grammar and use of modifiers.

 

[Joe_Penalty]

I think that is better use of inductive argument terminology. You stated "vast majority," "MAYBE" all, good work.

That study does NOT appear to have a hidden agenda. But I would like to know something.

What was the sample size in that study? __________________

that's it?????

you read that study and the only thing you want to discuss is how many people were in the study???

it is the main nation survey that is used in all fields. if you want to find out the (exact) number of participants just go to the NLSY web site. it gives answers to all the questions you can ask and more besides. you're interested in how representative the sample is? they explain it.

dude...I'm disappointed in your intellectual shallowness. there are so many interesting ideas in that study, presented in a politically correct way, and yet you come away with no personal thoughts on it.

go ahead. you've found your niche. just keep on correcting commenters' grammar and use of modifiers.

Intellectual shallowness?

Since the answer is on the linked information, I was unable to locate the link, could you please post the link again?

My apologies for any inconvenience.

 

[IanC]

you're too lazy to go back a page or two, so you want me to repost the link? I suppose you don't know how to use google either?

 

[IanC]

reposted from page one-
Why do we continue to pretend there is an untapped black talent pool?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IQ testing may not encompass all the traits that people consider to be 'intelligence' but it does a good job of picking out those that are capable of learning and making good decisions. Typically the top 1/6 of our population (IQ115+) make up the bulk of professional occupations. But only 2% of blacks score that high. Is it any wonder that top schools struggle to find qualified blacks to fill medical, law and engineering positions? They have to dip much further into the black cohort to reach acceptable numbers of students and it shows in black performance and graduation rates. If blacks had to have the same qualifications as whites and asians then a single school like MIT would use up virtually all of the high scoring black candidates. Instead elite schools take best that they can find, leaving 2nd tier schools with 3rd or 4th tier black students, and so on. Many or most black students find themselves in a school where their qualifications are at the bottom and their performance and graduation rate reflect that.
This same scenerio is played out in many AA dominated jobs. AA gets blacks a job but their poor qualifications make it difficult to promote them or put them in positions of responsibility. Of course the blacks who truly were qualified find it difficult to escape the taint of low expectations given to other blacks.
This scarcity of talent problem is the main reason why Africa is such a mess. With only a tiny portion of the sub-saharan population scoring as high as IQ100, there are few to fill professional and executive positions and jobs that are filled with IQ100 personnel here (like teachers, military officers, police) are filled with incompetents in Africa.

OK Joe, pick it apart. I don't care if you beat up on my grammar or logic but just make sure YOU put down your thoughts on what you think are more important factors, and perhaps a hint of whatever evidence you think backs it up.

 

[IanC]

an interesting blog entry from Inductivist

Focusing on aggregates
Americans are taught to judge people individually, and in situations where you can get to know someone, this makes sense. But the truth is that you can predict aggregates better than individuals.

Using General Social Survey data, I calculated the correlation between a measure of IQ (WORDSUM) and income (REALINC) for almost 17,000 people born in the U.S. It turned out to be .28. If you square that number, you get .08 which is called R-squared. It is interpreted as the proportion of variation in income that can be explained by your IQ. In other words, if I know one thing about a person--his IQ square--I am not going to be able to predict his income level with any accuracy at all.

But the situation changes dramatically if I calculate mean IQs and mean incomes for the 29 ethnic groups which have at least 30 respondents in each group. Now the correlation jumps all the way up to .77. If we square that, we get .59, which means that 59 percent of the variation in mean income is explained by the variation in mean IQ scores. So if I've got a random group of, say, Americans of Russian descent, chances are their average IQ is high, and I can make a pretty good bet that the group will earn an above-average income as well.

This is why Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen's approach is so effective in IQ and the Wealth of Nations. You grab a random guy in Japan, he might be smart or dumb; he might be rich or poor. But tell me the mean IQ of the country is 106, and I'm putting my money on it being a wealthy place.

HBD-ers are criticized for focusing on groups, but reality is most predictable at that level, and being scientific is being concerned with prediction.

in much the same way, SAT deniers say that there is very little extra predictive power in SAT numbers but if you look at students in larger groups (25, 100) then the scores seem to expain almost ALL the outcome.

 

[Joe_Penalty]

reposted from page one-
Why do we continue to pretend there is an untapped black talent pool?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IQ testing may not encompass all the traits that people consider to be 'intelligence' but it does a good job of picking out those that are capable of learning and making good decisions. Typically the top 1/6 of our population (IQ115+) make up the bulk of professional occupations. But only 2% of blacks score that high. Is it any wonder that top schools struggle to find qualified blacks to fill medical, law and engineering positions? They have to dip much further into the black cohort to reach acceptable numbers of students and it shows in black performance and graduation rates. If blacks had to have the same qualifications as whites and asians then a single school like MIT would use up virtually all of the high scoring black candidates. Instead elite schools take best that they can find, leaving 2nd tier schools with 3rd or 4th tier black students, and so on. Many or most black students find themselves in a school where their qualifications are at the bottom and their performance and graduation rate reflect that.
This same scenerio is played out in many AA dominated jobs. AA gets blacks a job but their poor qualifications make it difficult to promote them or put them in positions of responsibility. Of course the blacks who truly were qualified find it difficult to escape the taint of low expectations given to other blacks.
This scarcity of talent problem is the main reason why Africa is such a mess. With only a tiny portion of the sub-saharan population scoring as high as IQ100, there are few to fill professional and executive positions and jobs that are filled with IQ100 personnel here (like teachers, military officers, police) are filled with incompetents in Africa.

OK Joe, pick it apart. I don't care if you beat up on my grammar or logic but just make sure YOU put down your thoughts on what you think are more important factors, and perhaps a hint of whatever evidence you think backs it up.

What is the sample size?

 

[IanC]

What is the sample size?

pick whichever IQ test you prefer and go to their web site for an explanation of the methodology

are you nitpiking again? do you think that it is just a mistake, and somehow blacks just happened to score about one std deviation lower than whites on this test, and the one before it, and the one before that, ad nauseum?

and I don't really care what anyone wants to call the trait that is measured by IQ tests. it is stable, reproducible, and most important of all, predictive of trainability and production. any questions?