daveman
Diamond Member
It's a possibility but certainly not at 77%: a long time to go, and we have seen the far right's ability to muck anything up.
If you think that is wrong, you should sell the contract. Every contract is a multiple of $10 meaning a 77% chance is worth $7.70. So if you sell 100 contracts, you receive $770. If you are right, then you get to keep all the money. If you are wrong, you have to pay out $1000, or a net cost to you of $230. A $770 payout with your losses capped at $230 is a great opportunity if you think the Dems are going to keep the House.
If you are highly confident in your beliefs, it is irrational not to take this bet. If its too much money for you, you can sell just one contract for $7.70, or any multiple thereof.
I don't think he gets that big an allowance.