Why Bush's troop surge won't save Iraq

[DeadCanDance]

Juan Cole is a noted MiddleEastern expert, and his predictions have been pretty close to being 100% right over the last five years (compared to BushCo. who've nearly always been wrong)

"Why Bush's troop surge won't save Iraq"

The influx of U.S. troops brought a relative lull in violence -- but the failing state remains in political chaos and is headed for collapse.

by Dr. Juan Cole

'the only truly good news to come from Iraq would be good news regarding the political landscape. And there, Iraq is still beset with problems. In recent days, parts of northern Iraq have been invaded by Turkey, an ally of the United States. In Baghdad, Sunni members of parliament staged a walkout to defend their leader, whose bodyguards were implicated in fashioning car bombs. Proposed legislation reducing sanctions against Sunni Arabs who once belonged to the Baath Party nearly produced a riot in parliament. Meanwhile, Britain and Australia, among Bush's few remaining allies with combat troops in Iraq, are planning to depart in 2008, raising questions about security in the key southern port city of Basra, the major route for the country's lucrative oil exports.

What the recent publicity about the "success" of the troop surge has ignored is this: The Bush administration has downplayed the collapsing political situation in Iraq by directing the public's attention to fluctuating numbers of civilians killed. While there have been some relative gains in security recently, even there the picture remains dubious. The Iraqi ministry of health, long known for cooking the books, says that a few hundred Iraqis were killed in political violence in November. However, independent observers such as Iraq Body Count cite a much higher number -- some 1,100 civilians killed in Iraq in November. They reported that bombings and assassinations accounted for 63 persons on Saturday, the first day of December, alone. . .

The current "good news" campaign from the Bush administration regarding the troop surge is only the latest in a long history of whitewashing the war since the 2003 invasion. First, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld denied that there was massive looting following the fall of Baghdad. Then he denied that there was a rising guerrilla war. . . '



Read the whole thing.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/04/iraq/

 

[JimH52]

Good read. I do think that the real challenge will be reconsileration between the factions. Al-Qaida may be controlled now but if the trevails of the government continue, there will be factions laying in wait for the opportunity.

 

[Annie]

I might suggest you all check out Juan Cole, more than a cursorary glance.

 

[DeadCanDance]

I might suggest you all check out Juan Cole, more than a cursorary glance.

You and Bush were wrong about Iraq WMD, wrong about collaborative ties between al qaeda and Saddam, wrong about Iran's nuclear program. You're almost always wrong.

Juan Cole has been one of the most insightful commentators on the middle east. And Unlike you and Bush, he's almost always right.

 

[Annie]

You and Bush were wrong about Iraq WMD, wrong about collaborative ties between al qaeda and Saddam, wrong about Iran's nuclear program. You're almost always wrong.

Juan Cole has been one of the most insightful commentators on the middle east. And Unlike you and Bush, he's almost always right.

And when he's wrong? Where are those links? LOL!

Trying to tie me with Bush only makes you wrong. Sorry.

 

[DeadCanDance]

And when he's wrong? Where are those links? LOL!

Trying to tie me with Bush only makes you wrong. Sorry.

Were you not the one recently posting that Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and was 18 months away from having a bomb?

The problem with being wrong all the time kathy, is that is make you just like bush.

 

[Annie]

Were you not the one recently posting that Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and was 18 months away from having a bomb?

The problem with being wrong all the time kathy, is that is make you just like bush.

Cute. Better than both of us, yeah there are links:

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/2007/12/04/iraq-dc/

Iraq = D.C.

Having opposed the liberation, the left now demands instant democracy in Iraq.

The left is so vested in defeat in Iraq that they are making ridiculous demands on a nation that is recovering from about 20 years of war (beginning with Iran) and 30 years of tyranny.

Nation building is difficult, which is why the governor of Texas eschewed it in the 2000 presidential debate. Spreading democracy is a vaccine against terrorism, which is why the president embraced nation-building post-9/11.

Bush Derangement Syndrome is the only explanation for the lleft’s flip-flop from its historic embrace of idealism.

Writing in Salon today, Juan Cole trotted out the latest placement of the goalposts by the left: “Appearing on ‘Meet the Press’ on Sunday, Democratic Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia gave some needed perspective on the U.S. troop ’surge’ in Iraq. Webb, a Vietnam veteran and former secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan, recently returned from a visit to Iraq. He said that it was inaccurate to attribute the recent reduction in violence entirely to Bush’s troop escalation. Moreover, Webb said that any security improvements in Iraq would only help if accompanied by political progress. He criticized the administration for ‘the failure for the last five years to match the quality of our military performance with robust regional diplomacy’.”

This replaces Harry Reid’s declaration 6 months ago that military success was impossible, the war is lost.

The change in demands from the left shows that we won militarily. Democracy is more difficult to deliver. It takes time and patience. Let us review:

In 1999, Nato troops and U.S. bombers led a 78-day war in Kosovo to rid the region of a brutal dictator, Slobodan Milosevic. 8 years later, talks continue on a final resolution of its status. Russia has threatened to use it UN veto to nix any deal that does not suit Vladimir Putin, who wants to resurrect the Soviet empire.

In Korea, the 3-year war between North and South ended in a cease-fire in 1953. The corrupt government of Syngman Rhee ended in student riots in 1960. A year later, General Park Chung-hee led a military coup and held power until 1979. This gave way to Choi Gyu Ha’s government, followed by a military coup a year later. Direct elections came about in 1989.

In Italy, a black market flourished but the 1st Republic was installed in 1948, roughly 3 years after its liberation. Its first election was marked by violence and U.S. efforts to keep communists from winning — and by Stalin’s efforts to buy the election. Southern West Virginians and Cook County Democrats run clean elections by comparison.

In France, the 4th Republic was installed after the war. It went through 21 changes in prime ministers in 11 years. The 5th Republic came about in 1958.

In Japan, Gen. MacArthur ruled the nation for 7 years. In 1952, its democracy was established.

Now then, 60 years after the war, troops remain in Italy, Japan and Germany, which took 45 years to re-unite.

54 years later, U.S. troops remain in South Korea.

109 years after the Spanish-American War, U.S. troops are in the Philippines. They left momentarily in World War II, ousted by the Japanese.

In none of these nations would anyone suggest that there has been a war. That’s because with the exception of an occasional Baader-Meinhof gang, no one is taking potshots at our soldiers.

Those wars have ended. This one will end soon, when U.S. Army casualties reach zero.

That does not mean there will not be political violence and acts of terrorism.

The left’s demand for instant democracy is laughable.

“In Baghdad, politics are a mess. Critics of Bush’s policy complain that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite fundamentalist, has not reached out with sufficient vigor to Sunni Arabs to seek reconciliation. In fact, the situation is far worse than that,” Cole wrote.

Oh? Two months into the fiscal year, Congress has yet to pass a federal budget. Critics of Harry Reid complain that “he has not reached out with sufficient vigor to” Republicans “to seek reconciliation. In fact, the situation is far worse than that.”

Congress mirrors conditions in the Iraqi parliament because of the left’s refusal to accept victory.

Juan Cole’s article is here. Linked by Salon. Thanks.

Linked by Glenn Reynolds. Thanks!

 

[Gunny]

You and Bush were wrong about Iraq WMD, wrong about collaborative ties between al qaeda and Saddam, wrong about Iran's nuclear program. You're almost always wrong.

Juan Cole has been one of the most insightful commentators on the middle east. And Unlike you and Bush, he's almost always right.

1. Saddam manufactured, possessed and used WMDs.

2. Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. Only you leftwingnuts have been trying to sell it that way. Guess y'all intellectual giants were teh only ones that would believe such crap anyway.

You are not only wrong, but lost in the sauce of your political fanaticism.

If Iran nuked us today, YOU would swear to God Bush did it. You destroy your own credibility. No one needs to help you at all.

 

[DeadCanDance]

1. Saddam manufactured, possessed and used WMDs.

2. Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. Only you leftwingnuts have been trying to sell it that way. Guess y'all intellectual giants were teh only ones that would believe such crap anyway.

You are not only wrong, but lost in the sauce of your political fanaticism.

If Iran nuked us today, YOU would swear to God Bush did it. You destroy your own credibility. No one needs to help you at all.

"Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. "

Its been pretty well confirmed that Mohamed Atta met with Iraqi intelligence in Prauge - DICK CHENEY

There's overwhelming evidence there was a connection between al Qaeda and the Iraqi government. I am very confident that there was an established relationship there." - Vice President Cheney, 1/22/04

You can't distinguish between al-Qaida and Saddam-- President Bush, 9/25/02

There's no question that Saddam Hussein had al Qaeda ties. -= President Bush, 9/17/03

There was a relationship between Iraq and al-Qaeda--Vice President Cheney, 9/14/03

By removing saddam hussien, we've removed an ally of Al Qaeda - George Bush, May 1, 2003

"Iraq has trained Al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases." - Bush in October 2002.

"Iraq has also provided Al Qaeda with chemical and biological weapons training." - Bush in February 2003.

 

[Larkinn]

1. Saddam manufactured, possessed and used WMDs.

2. Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. Only you leftwingnuts have been trying to sell it that way. Guess y'all intellectual giants were teh only ones that would believe such crap anyway.

You are not only wrong, but lost in the sauce of your political fanaticism.

If Iran nuked us today, YOU would swear to God Bush did it. You destroy your own credibility. No one needs to help you at all.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021007-8.html

From a Bush speech:

And that is the source of our urgent concern about Saddam Hussein's links to international terrorist groups. Over the years, Iraq has provided safe haven to terrorists such as Abu Nidal, whose terror organization carried out more than 90 terrorist attacks in 20 countries that killed or injured nearly 900 people, including 12 Americans. Iraq has also provided safe haven to Abu Abbas, who was responsible for seizing the Achille Lauro and killing an American passenger. And we know that Iraq is continuing to finance terror and gives assistance to groups that use terrorism to undermine Middle East peace.

We know that Iraq and the al Qaeda terrorist network share a common enemy -- the United States of America. We know that Iraq and al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade. Some al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq. These include one very senior al Qaeda leader who received medical treatment in Baghdad this year, and who has been associated with planning for chemical and biological attacks. We've learned that Iraq has trained al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases. And we know that after September the 11th, Saddam Hussein's regime gleefully celebrated the terrorist attacks on America.

Selective memory there Gunny?

 

[Gunny]

"Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. "

My bad. I'll give you this one. I misread what was there. For some reason I was thinking Saddam - 9/11.

 

[manu1959]

You and Bush were wrong about Iraq WMD, wrong about collaborative ties between al qaeda and Saddam, wrong about Iran's nuclear program. You're almost always wrong.

Juan Cole has been one of the most insightful commentators on the middle east. And Unlike you and Bush, he's almost always right.

what has he been wrong about?

 

[jillian]

what has he been wrong about?

Pretty much everything.

 

[Stephanie]

But fer sure...we can't have any Democrats NOW saying the surge is working...Oops wait...did I just see JOHN MURTHA say there were improvements in Iraq....And gasp...the surge was working....gasp, gasp...

The Democrats were invested in our loss in Iraq, just as they did the same in Vietnam...So now for any of them to admit any sort of improvement is like swallowing cyanide....

It really is and isn't fun seeing them twisting in the wind...

But oh well...it's fun as hell

 

[doniston]

But fer sure...we can't have any Democrats NOW saying the surge is working...Oops wait...did I just see JOHN MURTHA say there were improvements in Iraq....And gasp...the surge was working....gasp, gasp...

The Democrats were invested in our loss in Iraq, just as they did the same in Vietnam...So now for any of them to admit any sort of improvement is like swallowing cyanide....

It really is and isn't fun seeing them twisting in the wind...

But oh well...it's fun as hell

YES, there are improvements in "ONE" of the three areas. How about the other two? To end up with a proper goverrnment. All three have to work together. Snow has a better chance of survival in Hell.

 

[Shogun]

1. Saddam manufactured, possessed and used WMDs.

2. Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. Only you leftwingnuts have been trying to sell it that way. Guess y'all intellectual giants were teh only ones that would believe such crap anyway.

You are not only wrong, but lost in the sauce of your political fanaticism.

If Iran nuked us today, YOU would swear to God Bush did it. You destroy your own credibility. No one needs to help you at all.

i tellya.. it CRACK ME UP every time someone insists that the bush machine DIDN'T make a correlation in the run up to Iraq. Indeed, even funnier that we point out his use of weapons WE GAVE HIM under sanctioned actions to deal with a mutual enemy that, somehow, NOW becomes verification for the claim of phantom weapons of mass destruction.

If Iran DIDNT nuke us today You'd insist that it's going to happen the next day.. and the next day.. and the next day.. and the..

 

[maineman]

1. Saddam manufactured, possessed and used WMDs.

2. Bush never made a tie between AQ and Saddam. Only you leftwingnuts have been trying to sell it that way. Guess y'all intellectual giants were teh only ones that would believe such crap anyway.

You are not only wrong, but lost in the sauce of your political fanaticism.

If Iran nuked us today, YOU would swear to God Bush did it. You destroy your own credibility. No one needs to help you at all.

are you saying that the Bush administration did not repeatedly claim that Atta had met with Iraqi agents prior to 9/11?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

i tellya.. it CRACK ME UP every time someone insists that the bush machine DIDN'T make a correlation in the run up to Iraq. Indeed, even funnier that we point out his use of weapons WE GAVE HIM under sanctioned actions to deal with a mutual enemy that, somehow, NOW becomes verification for the claim of phantom weapons of mass destruction.

If Iran DIDNT nuke us today You'd insist that it's going to happen the next day.. and the next day.. and the next day.. and the..

Provide evidence we gave Iraq ANY weapons. especially chemical or biological ones. That is the BIGGEST lie out there. Iraq got his stuff from Russia, China, France and Germany ( belgium too I am sure) It cracks me up everytime one of you leftoids makes that ridiculous claim.

All your going to find is civilian helicopters and materials allowed to be sold to foreign governments, any foreign government.

 

[Shogun]

The United States did not supply any arms to Iraq until 1982, when Iran's growing military success alarmed American policymakers. It then did so every year until 1988. Although most other countries never hesitated to sell military hardware directly to Saddam Hussein's regime, the United States, equally keen to protect its interests in the region, adopted a more subtle approach. Howard Teicher served on the National Security Council as director of Political-Military Affairs. According to his 1995 affidavit and other interviews with former Regan and Bush administration officials, the Central Intelligence Agency secretly directed armaments and high-tech components to Iraq through false fronts and friendly third parties such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait, and they quietly encouraged rogue arms dealers and other Private military companies to do the same:

"The CIA, including both CIA Director Casey and Deputy Director Gates, knew of, approved of, and assisted in the sale of non-U.S. origin military weapons, ammunition and vehicles to Iraq. My notes, memoranda and other documents in my NSC files show or tend to show that the CIA knew of, approved of, and assisted in the sale of non-U.S. origin military weapons, munitions and vehicles to Iraq."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_sales_to_Iraq



U.S. Had Key Role in Iraq Buildup
Trade in Chemical Arms Allowed Despite Their Use on Iranians, Kurds
By Michael Dobbs
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 30, 2002; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A52241-2002Dec29

Throughout the 1980s, Hussein's Iraq was the sworn enemy of Iran, then still in the throes of an Islamic revolution. U.S. officials saw Baghdad as a bulwark against militant Shiite extremism and the fall of pro-American states such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and even Jordan -- a Middle East version of the "domino theory" in Southeast Asia. That was enough to turn Hussein into a strategic partner and for U.S. diplomats in Baghdad to routinely refer to Iraqi forces as "the good guys," in contrast to the Iranians, who were depicted as "the bad guys."

A review of thousands of declassified government documents and interviews with former policymakers shows that U.S. intelligence and logistical support played a crucial role in shoring up Iraqi defenses against the "human wave" attacks by suicidal Iranian troops. The administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush authorized the sale to Iraq of numerous items that had both military and civilian applications, including poisonous chemicals and deadly biological viruses, such as anthrax and bubonic plague.


U.S. And Iraq Go Way Back
Report: Documents Show Cozy Relationship During Iran-Iraq War
NEW YORK, Dec. 31, 2002

(CBS) Newly released documents show that U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, played a leading role in building up Iraq's military in the 1980s when Iraq was using chemical weapons, a newspaper reports.

It was Rumsfeld, now defense secretary and then a special presidential envoy, whose December 1983 meeting with Saddam Hussein led to the normalization of ties between Washington and Baghdad, according to the Washington Post.

The cozy relationship was an effort to build a regional bulwark against America's enemies in Iran.

The newspaper says a review of a large tranche of government documents reveals that the administrations of President Reagan and the first President Bush both authorized providing Iraq with intelligence and logistical support, and okayed the sale of dual use items — those with military and civilian applications — that included chemicals and germs, even anthrax and bubonic plague.


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/31/world/main534798.shtml





Now, if only creationists could whip out the evidence like that....


did that sting, RGS?

 

[maineman]

ouch! RGS's turds will be as wide as tuna cans for weeks!

good job shogun!