Whoever wins Iowa...

yes... and it will come down to super tuesday... though no doubt that mitt would prefer to have it wrapped up in the early states.

i don't think there's any way mitt gets iowa. but if he makes a good showing, he'll be ok.

you know newt will implode...

and, fwiw, at this time in the election cycle in 2007, hillary clinton was definitely going to be the nominee...

HIllary lost because of her own missteps and her own party stabbed her in the back.

Here's the ugly little secret of 2008. Hillary got more votes than the Community Organizer.

But because of rules disallowing some states (Michigan and Florida) and letting Superdelegates say, "Screw the voters", Obama got more delegates.
You have no idea what you're talking about. I live in Michigan. Obama wasn't even on the ballot here, dumb ass.

By his own choice...

Even if he got all of the "no Candidate" votes (which was an option offered), Hillary still got more.

Again, Don't blame Obama for taking advantage of the rules. He's probably been doing that his whole life.

Hillary had no game plan after Super Tuesday and Obama snuck past her after she won all the major states except IL.
 
Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.
Whomsoever wins Ioway rarely wins the nomination.

about half the time since 1976 (not counting the uncontested). But my point was you can't lose two out of the first three primaries and win the nom. Florida makes it more interesting with their earlier primary this time, but it looks like Newt is way ahead there. So Mitt has to win Iowa or he's done.
 
To a lot of people, that will hold weight.

At least in the primaries.

yeah, but then there will be the general election. hahaha

vote for newt, palin endorsed.

hahahahhahahahahha

And in the general election, you'll have the Community Organizer and his 9% unemployment, his $4.00 a gallon gasoline, his AA Credit Rating and his 6 trillion in new debt.

the "community organizer" will have been president for 4 years by then... so why you're still calling him "community organizer" is beyond me.

and your problem is that most of the country blames congress (rightfully so) for the AA credit rating... specifically teatards.... our credit wasn't downgraded because we couldn't pay our bills. it was downgraded because of stupid.... and not in the white house.

the deficit doesn't matter... ask dick cheney...
 
Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.
Whomsoever wins Ioway rarely wins the nomination.

about half the time since 1976 (not counting the uncontested). But my point was you can't lose two out of the first three primaries and win the nom. Florida makes it more interesting with their earlier primary this time, but it looks like Newt is way ahead there. So Mitt has to win Iowa or he's done.
Different this time around, with proportional assignment of delegates rather than winner-take-all.

Nothing is going to be over until it's over.
 
Whomsoever wins Ioway rarely wins the nomination.

about half the time since 1976 (not counting the uncontested). But my point was you can't lose two out of the first three primaries and win the nom. Florida makes it more interesting with their earlier primary this time, but it looks like Newt is way ahead there. So Mitt has to win Iowa or he's done.
Different this time around, with proportional assignment of delegates rather than winner-take-all.

Nothing is going to be over until it's over.

I didn't know they'd changed it. Link please?
 
Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

Nah, March 20, Illinois. That is where the race will be decided one way or the other. 69 Delegates up for grabs. More importantly, it's in the middle of the Country. Whoever wins this state will have the late momentum. It will be hard for anybody other than Romney to catch up from behind because the next big day will be April 24 when NY and PA have their contests; nobody is going to be able to compete with Romney in the northeast.

I expect it to be a 3 man race by March 7 between Romney, Huntsman and possibly Perry who has nothing but money. He'll get a dead cat bounce from the Texas primary being held on March 6. He doesn't play in Peoria though so he may limp to the convention. This will be about the time a 3rd party emerges of GOP castoffs.
 
All of the primaries and caucuses before April 1st have to be proportional. With a six or seven person race the delegates are going to divided up and not winner take all.

Those after April 1st can have winner take all but there are several including New York that can end up being proportional. In New York , if a candidate has 50%+ of the vote they get all the delegates. If no one gets over 50% then the delegates are divided proportionally.

The road map to the Republican nomination is not as straightforward as it has been. Of course momentum sometimes means more than delegates because wins can generate media time and fund raising but the new rules do give us a chance, a chance at having an open convention where no candidate has enough delegates to secure a first vote nomination and thereby allowing someone not in the running to enter the fray. Could be an interesting summer.
 
yeah, but then there will be the general election. hahaha

vote for newt, palin endorsed.

hahahahhahahahahha

And in the general election, you'll have the Community Organizer and his 9% unemployment, his $4.00 a gallon gasoline, his AA Credit Rating and his 6 trillion in new debt.

the "community organizer" will have been president for 4 years by then... so why you're still calling him "community organizer" is beyond me.

and your problem is that most of the country blames congress (rightfully so) for the AA credit rating... specifically teatards.... our credit wasn't downgraded because we couldn't pay our bills. it was downgraded because of stupid.... and not in the white house.

the deficit doesn't matter... ask dick cheney...

"Community Organizer" was his highest level of competence, until the Chicago Media decided to whitewash him and sell him as "hopey-changey".

Point is, we didn't get to lowered credit until this idiot came along.

and

New Low of 26% Approve of Obama on the Economy

A new low of 26% of Americans approve of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy, down 11 percentage points since Gallup last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010.

I just have to ask who the hell are these 26%?
 
Awww.....come on, man. You can make one up now just as well as you can after it happens.

How about:

The Obama administration used NATO troops and ACORN to register the entire Libyan population and forced them at gunpoint to submit absentee ballots.

or.......

The GOP really didn't want to win the Presidential election of 2012. They really just wanted to take back the Senate so they could prevent Obama from ruining the country.
 
yeah, but then there will be the general election. hahaha

vote for newt, palin endorsed.

hahahahhahahahahha

And in the general election, you'll have the Community Organizer and his 9% unemployment, his $4.00 a gallon gasoline, his AA Credit Rating and his 6 trillion in new debt.

the "community organizer" will have been president for 4 years by then... so why you're still calling him "community organizer" is beyond me.

and your problem is that most of the country blames congress (rightfully so) for the AA credit rating... specifically teatards.... our credit wasn't downgraded because we couldn't pay our bills. it was downgraded because of stupid.... and not in the white house.

the deficit doesn't matter... ask dick cheney...

Well, in fairness, Obama was a community organizer. Just like Newt was Freddie Mac lobbyist!
 
Doesn't matter if Newt or Mitten is the candidate going against Obama. Neither are well liked. The only thing that will tip the scales to their side is how much hatred the GOP can drum up against Obama and motivate their base to hold their noses and vote.
 
Awww.....come on, man. You can make one up now just as well as you can after it happens.

How about:

The Obama administration used NATO troops and ACORN to register the entire Libyan population and forced them at gunpoint to submit absentee ballots.

or.......

The GOP really didn't want to win the Presidential election of 2012. They really just wanted to take back the Senate so they could prevent Obama from ruining the country.

Since we don't have a candidate yet, I can't really analyze why he lost before it happened.

I think the numbers are such that if it is Mitt or Newt, they have a very good chance of winning.

BUt Mitt might also cause the far right wing to split off and support a third party, allowing Obama to win.

Simply too many variables in play right now.

I think the numbers are against Obama, because better men have been voted out with much less severe numbers.... JMO. But I also think that this is probably the weakest GOP feild I've seen in my lifetime.
 

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