Whoever wins Iowa...

[elvis]

Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

 

[imbalance]

If Romney wins Iowa they might as well call the race.

 

[Avatar4321]

i find it rather sad that Iowa is given so much power to decide everything.

 

[elvis]

i find it rather sad that Iowa is given so much power to decide everything.

Momentum.

 

[JoeB131]

i find it rather sad that Iowa is given so much power to decide everything.

Wow, we actually agree on something.

Yes, it's terrible that by the time the first four primaries/caucuses are done, we are going to be down to two or maybe one candidate before the other 45 states even have a say.

That said, I don't think things are looking good for Mitt in Iowa. Smarting from his 2008 loss their to Mike Huckabee, he snubbed the state at every oppurtunity.

Now, you can snub Iowa and do well. McCain came in FOURTH in 2008, because his lifelong oppossition to the Ethanol Boondoggle made him as popular as husk rot there. But you'd better have a plan for after it.

Mitt's plan was to win New Hampshire decisively and then declare victory. But if Newt Wins Iowa, and then goes on to win SC and Florida, Mittens might have some serious problems.

Romney's real problem is people just don't like him. And having done well in the debates, he now has to do retail politicking, which he has never really been good at.

 

[Toro]

Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

It depends.

We could see a similar contest in 2008 when we went on and on and on.

But if Newt were to blow out Romney in both SC and FL, it will be over.

 

[zzzz]

Hmm, a poll yesterday of Iowans (Repubs)
2012 President: Republican Primary
29% Gingrich
13% Bachmann
13% Romney
11% Paul
7% Cain
5% Perry
5% Santorum
4% Huntsman


IA-2012 Primary: 29% Gingrich, 13% Bachmann, 13% Romney (We Ask America 11/28)

 

[zzzz]

New Hampshire poll

Romney 36.2
Gingrich 19.6
Paul 13.4
Huntsman 8.8
Cain 7
Perry2.8
Bachmann 2.2
Santorum 1.6

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

 

[elvis]

Damn. I didn't know about Florida's early primary, folks.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

The good news is that buying the win will be slightly more difficult than it was for Bachmann in the straw poll. Not saying it won't happen ... depends on who the Koch's decide to buy now that Cain is face down in his own mud.

JMO but I doubt they'll want to buy Newt. He doesn't have anything that resembles integrity but he's too intractable and the old timers hate what he did as speaker.

I think the Kochs will buy Mitt because he doesn't have a spine and they can control him. Plus, he already hates the common folk, he's an experienced corporate raider and has said he will support the 1% at the expense of the 99% cuz, corporations are people yadda yadda yadda.

 

[JoeB131]

Two things are going to happen soon to boost Gingrich.

1) Palin will endorse him.

2) Cain will drop out.

 

[jillian]

Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

yes... and it will come down to super tuesday... though no doubt that mitt would prefer to have it wrapped up in the early states.

i don't think there's any way mitt gets iowa. but if he makes a good showing, he'll be ok.

you know newt will implode...

and, fwiw, at this time in the election cycle in 2007, hillary clinton was definitely going to be the nominee...

 

[Avatar4321]

The good news is that buying the win will be slightly more difficult than it was for Bachmann in the straw poll. Not saying it won't happen ... depends on who the Koch's decide to buy now that Cain is face down in his own mud.

JMO but I doubt they'll want to buy Newt. He doesn't have anything that resembles integrity but he's too intractable and the old timers hate what he did as speaker.

I think the Kochs will buy Mitt because he doesn't have a spine and they can control him. Plus, he already hates the common folk, he's an experienced corporate raider and has said he will support the 1% at the expense of the 99% cuz, corporations are people yadda yadda yadda.

He hates the common people?

You seriously can't come up with an honest argument against him?

 

[Avatar4321]

Two things are going to happen soon to boost Gingrich.

1) Palin will endorse him.

2) Cain will drop out.

Im not convinced either will happen. Nor that Cain dropping out with boost Gingrich. I saw a poll that shows Cain's support shifting to all that candidate with Romney getting the most.

 

[zzzz]

With the proportional allocation of delegates in the first half of the primary season I doubt anyone will generate enough momentum to gain a sizable advantage. Once one person gets a lead the pack will tear into them like a pack of hounds fighting over a rabbit.

Who will emerge from this cage fight unscathed? As bad as Obama is, the Republicans face a prospect of destroying all their candidates so bad that Obama remains in office. Or if no one can garner enough votes a black-horse candidate may emerge during the convention. That would be the best scenario for the Republicans, to nominate someone else other than the seven dwarfs we have now.

 

[JoeB131]

Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

yes... and it will come down to super tuesday... though no doubt that mitt would prefer to have it wrapped up in the early states.

i don't think there's any way mitt gets iowa. but if he makes a good showing, he'll be ok.

you know newt will implode...

and, fwiw, at this time in the election cycle in 2007, hillary clinton was definitely going to be the nominee...

HIllary lost because of her own missteps and her own party stabbed her in the back.

Here's the ugly little secret of 2008. Hillary got more votes than the Community Organizer.

But because of rules disallowing some states (Michigan and Florida) and letting Superdelegates say, "Screw the voters", Obama got more delegates. Which is unfortunately, because it should be obvious to everyone he's in over his head.

Is there anyone, left, right or center, who thinks Hillary would be floundering this badly right now?

 

[elvis]

Since Romney is going to win New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, he'd have too much momentum to be stopped (two in a row). If Newt wins Iowa, it will come down to SC and Mitt's not winning that state.

yes... and it will come down to super tuesday... though no doubt that mitt would prefer to have it wrapped up in the early states.

i don't think there's any way mitt gets iowa. but if he makes a good showing, he'll be ok.

you know newt will implode...

and, fwiw, at this time in the election cycle in 2007, hillary clinton was definitely going to be the nominee...

HIllary lost because of her own missteps and her own party stabbed her in the back.

Here's the ugly little secret of 2008. Hillary got more votes than the Community Organizer.

But because of rules disallowing some states (Michigan and Florida) and letting Superdelegates say, "Screw the voters", Obama got more delegates.

You have no idea what you're talking about. I live in Michigan. Obama wasn't even on the ballot here, dumb ass.

 

[Inthemiddle]

i find it rather sad that Iowa is given so much power to decide everything.

So write your state legislator and tell them you want the state to move up it's primary. Then YOU can be the new Iowa.

 

[L.K.Eder]

Two things are going to happen soon to boost Gingrich.

1) Palin will endorse him.

2) Cain will drop out.

1)

 

[Avatar4321]

i find it rather sad that Iowa is given so much power to decide everything.

So write your state legislator and tell them you want the state to move up it's primary. Then YOU can be the new Iowa.

Then Iowa will simply move up it's caucus.

its a big game.