Who Will Lose Their Job to the Machines?

I read a couple reviews and hope to read the book. The end of work has been the goal of humans for centuries but now it appears it maybe within our grasp, the Utopian world of leisure doesn't look so good.

The work ethic is strongly rooted in all societies. The more people in the workforce that become redundant the more social problems were're going to have. I think we're going to have some major changes.

Perhaps the work ethic is something that can be transfered into a computer program and accessed by humans as needed. Work in a virtual reality environment my be just as fulfilling as that in the material world! SOme video game simulations are already approaching that possibility!
Yes, I suppose you could pay people based on their performance on Sims or Pokemon, but I don't see that is any better than sending them a check every month. People will always find some leisure activity to occupy their time but I really don't think Pokemon or any other computer game is going to give people a sense worth that a job provides.

The kind of virtual reality I had in mind is far more complex than Pokeman or any other mere video game. I envision a virtual world similar to that depicted in a movie called "The Matrix" or the training simulator aboard the Captain Kirk's Enterprise.. Sure, right now we can shrug it off as science fiction and likely improbable for the near future but I can see it coming. By the time machines are doing everything for us, the effects of Moore's Law will have unleashed technological wonders we can now only dream of!
But wouldn't it be just be pastime?

I see where you're going with this. I agree, a sense of purpose has to be included in a program that would synthesize work ethic.

If everyone could choose a program centered around what they really like to do, I suspect that physical labor would probably be the least desired. Cerebral pursuits would likely be the most popular regardless of cognitive ability. Just think of being able to Captain your own starship and visit myriad worlds just like Kirk. You and a group of friends could go anywhere and do anything you desire and never leave the virtual world right at home. You would, of course, have to return to your own bodies once in a while to bathe and to eat or take care of some other physical needs.

Consider also that in the virtual world you won't age.
It's more than just a sense of purpose. There's matter of compensation. Do we pay people to wander through space in virtual reality. That would essentially be welfare creating a far larger welfare state than now exists. Maybe that's inevitable. However, I think a better idea might be the creation of public works projects and job sharing.

Elimination of most jobs could be a Utopia or Hell depending on how society adapts to it.
 
Elimination of most jobs could be a Utopia or Hell depending on how society adapts to it.

why be stupid on purpose?? the wheel hammer plow screw electric motor car truck plane PC cell phone displaced billions of workers and did not create any unemployment.

You really do lack the IQ to understand as a typical liberal don't you?
 
Elimination of most jobs could be a Utopia or Hell depending on how society adapts to it.

why be stupid on purpose?? the wheel hammer plow screw electric motor car truck plane PC cell phone displaced billions of workers and did not create any unemployment.

You really do lack the IQ to understand as a typical liberal don't you?
Those are technological advancements that made people more productive which created jobs. We're talking about automation that uses AI, that's capable of complex problem solving. It's purpose is to eliminate human labor, not to make it more productive.
 
If I were a Sydney Blumenthalesque type, I could easily believe the following scenario:

- Robots proliferate in all tasks which can be automated.
- The remaining work for humans involves personal services and artistic products for The Very Rich.
- Due to monetary policy and corporate cronyism, the .001% control most wealth and land, and are on the way to not requiring The Masses to protect and enhance their wealth.
- The great mass of humanity becomes a Liability to the system.
- Experiments with viruses and bacteria finally yield a highly effective pathogen which can be used to target the Liability portion of the population.
- A mass die out occurs after which those who were innoculated can emerge.
- The areas formerly populated by the consumer-liability masses is redeveloped into estate plantations for the Uber wealthy, their artisan and service personnel, and their armies of robots.

The End.
 
Perhaps the work ethic is something that can be transfered into a computer program and accessed by humans as needed. Work in a virtual reality environment my be just as fulfilling as that in the material world! SOme video game simulations are already approaching that possibility!
Yes, I suppose you could pay people based on their performance on Sims or Pokemon, but I don't see that is any better than sending them a check every month. People will always find some leisure activity to occupy their time but I really don't think Pokemon or any other computer game is going to give people a sense worth that a job provides.

The kind of virtual reality I had in mind is far more complex than Pokeman or any other mere video game. I envision a virtual world similar to that depicted in a movie called "The Matrix" or the training simulator aboard the Captain Kirk's Enterprise.. Sure, right now we can shrug it off as science fiction and likely improbable for the near future but I can see it coming. By the time machines are doing everything for us, the effects of Moore's Law will have unleashed technological wonders we can now only dream of!
But wouldn't it be just be pastime?

I see where you're going with this. I agree, a sense of purpose has to be included in a program that would synthesize work ethic.

If everyone could choose a program centered around what they really like to do, I suspect that physical labor would probably be the least desired. Cerebral pursuits would likely be the most popular regardless of cognitive ability. Just think of being able to Captain your own starship and visit myriad worlds just like Kirk. You and a group of friends could go anywhere and do anything you desire and never leave the virtual world right at home. You would, of course, have to return to your own bodies once in a while to bathe and to eat or take care of some other physical needs.

Consider also that in the virtual world you won't age.
It's more than just a sense of purpose. There's matter of compensation. Do we pay people to wander through space in virtual reality. That would essentially be welfare creating a far larger welfare state than now exists. Maybe that's inevitable. However, I think a better idea might be the creation of public works projects and job sharing.

Elimination of most jobs could be a Utopia or Hell depending on how society adapts to it.

Ok, My bad! I thought we were discussing the time when there is no work at all due to everyone's needs being met by machines. You are talking about the near future where severe joblessness may be just beginning. Ok, Gotcha!

I think before we can even begin to discuss this topic intelligently, some terms have to be clarified and defined. Here is my list:
Being a layman in the area of socioeconomic parlance my list is probably far from being complete.

Defiine Work:


Physical labor

mental labor ( *intellectual property)

*art

*music

proselytizers

managers/superviors

Which of the above will be most affected by computers and machines.?
 
I would love to see robots replace all the politicians and government bureaucrats.
 
No Takers for post #45? OK... Physical labor is the only real work; and that, traditionally has been the first affected by technological innovation and implementation. Most of the masses tend to be physical laborers (blue collar) and they will bear the initial brunt of a decline in the labor market. But layers of managers won't be needed as the labor force diminishes; there won't be anyone to supervise. So who survives such a scenario?

The economy dies when people don't have money to spend. If that happens we will spiral into another world wide Great Depression. Liquid assets will probably become more precious than paper money. A modified version of Andrew Jackson's Specie Circular may be resurrected in demands for payment of even the most basic needs.

But what organization will step up to address this issue? WIll it be the UN; The Salvation Army :lol:; or the US government?
I guess that last entity's involvement will depend on whether Republicans or Democrats control the White House and House of Representatives where the purse strings are! But with no tax base, will a government be sustainable?
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! :lol:
My "soliloquy" is over for now.
 
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! .

yes dear you have made a fool of yourself. inventions like the plow hammer screw nail electricity airplane train lightbulb motor wheel PC etc have displaced billions but it has no effect on unemployment.

Do you have the IQ to understand??
 
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! .

yes dear you have made a fool of yourself. inventions like the plow hammer screw nail electricity airplane train lightbulb motor wheel PC etc have displaced billions but it has no effect on unemployment.

Do you have the IQ to understand??

Well, I really don't think I made a fool of myself, my self deprecation was just a ploy to get a sucker like you to attack me. Now I've got you!

None of the inventions you mentioned have the impact full blown automation will eventually have on labor. The plow simply increased the productivity of the individual farmer, it didn't replace him. The hammer, screw and nail did the same for the carpenter or mason. Electricity might have put a few candle makers out of work but it brightened the lives of many who gained employment from it. Throw in a few oil lam makers and maybe a hundred thousand workers were affected.

Your analogy sucks, DEAH! We aren't talking about tools to make jobs easier for workers, we are taking about a self replicating mechanical labor force that will eventually negate the need for humans to produce anything except art, music or babies; and, even those things may be automated sooner or later.
 
Who Will Lose Their Job to the Machines

William Lee invented a stocking frame knitting machine in 1589. After traveling to London to present his invention to Queen Elizabeth I, she responded, “Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” The Queen denied him the patent. Why? Because job security is not a new concern.

The researchers estimated that about 47% of the U.S. workforce was at risk.

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Over 700 jobs and their risks.

See? It's not immigrants who Red States should be concerned about.








Honestly, if we allow it, MOST manual labor jobs will be done by robots, faster, better, and clearly cheaper. The day of the no skill worker is coming to a close. It IS going to be an issue. Especially when you factor in those who aren't smart enough to evolve in their jobs and those who are simply too lazy to learn.
 
No Takers for post #45? OK... Physical labor is the only real work; and that, traditionally has been the first affected by technological innovation and implementation. Most of the masses tend to be physical laborers (blue collar) and they will bear the initial brunt of a decline in the labor market. But layers of managers won't be needed as the labor force diminishes; there won't be anyone to supervise. So who survives such a scenario?

The economy dies when people don't have money to spend. If that happens we will spiral into another world wide Great Depression. Liquid assets will probably become more precious than paper money. A modified version of Andrew Jackson's Specie Circular may be resurrected in demands for payment of even the most basic needs.

But what organization will step up to address this issue? WIll it be the UN; The Salvation Army :lol:; or the US government?
I guess that last entity's involvement will depend on whether Republicans or Democrats control the White House and House of Representatives where the purse strings are! But with no tax base, will a government be sustainable?
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! :lol:
My "soliloquy" is over for now.
Regardless of which political party is in power at the on set a massive economic downtown, the government would provide economic stimulus regardless of the drop in tax revenue. Deficits would rise not just in the US but worldwide. The US would have no problem borrowing money because capital would flow into the US just it always does during a time crisis.

The question of course remains as to how you would provide long term employment and or subsidies. If automation were eliminating huge numbers of jobs, businesses would be making huge profits which would provide capital for business expansion and increases in taxes to provide financial assistance to redundant workers.
 
No Takers for post #45? OK... Physical labor is the only real work; and that, traditionally has been the first affected by technological innovation and implementation. Most of the masses tend to be physical laborers (blue collar) and they will bear the initial brunt of a decline in the labor market. But layers of managers won't be needed as the labor force diminishes; there won't be anyone to supervise. So who survives such a scenario?

The economy dies when people don't have money to spend. If that happens we will spiral into another world wide Great Depression. Liquid assets will probably become more precious than paper money. A modified version of Andrew Jackson's Specie Circular may be resurrected in demands for payment of even the most basic needs.

But what organization will step up to address this issue? WIll it be the UN; The Salvation Army :lol:; or the US government?
I guess that last entity's involvement will depend on whether Republicans or Democrats control the White House and House of Representatives where the purse strings are! But with no tax base, will a government be sustainable?
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! :lol:
My "soliloquy" is over for now.
Regardless of which political party is in power at the on set a massive economic downtown, the government would provide economic stimulus regardless of the drop in tax revenue. Deficits would rise not just in the US but worldwide. The US would have no problem borrowing money because capital would flow into the US just it always does during a time crisis.

The question of course remains as to how you would provide long term employment and or subsidies. If automation were eliminating huge numbers of jobs, businesses would be making huge profits which would provide capital for business expansion and increases in taxes to provide financial assistance to redundant workers.

I'm a not sure that capital would flow from foreign sources to the USA in time of crisis as it did in the past. Wouldn't foreign investments and other holdings be nationalized in a world wide economic crisis; and, thereby strain international relations?
Besides, our credit rating has been lowered and there is talk of shifting the International monetary standard away from the dollar.
Who would or could loan us the necessary funds for day to day operations and a burgeoning welfare status?

Perhaps, though , the owners and managers of this super technology won't be Americans. There are other rising stars among the industrialized nations who are now just as capable of controlling the world through automation: Japan and possibly a united Germany. If that happens, will we go the way of the Romans... without a shot being fired because we can't pay the soldiers?
 
Who Will Lose Their Job to the Machines

William Lee invented a stocking frame knitting machine in 1589. After traveling to London to present his invention to Queen Elizabeth I, she responded, “Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” The Queen denied him the patent. Why? Because job security is not a new concern.

The researchers estimated that about 47% of the U.S. workforce was at risk.

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Over 700 jobs and their risks.

See? It's not immigrants who Red States should be concerned about.








Honestly, if we allow it, MOST manual labor jobs will be done by robots, faster, better, and clearly cheaper. The day of the no skill worker is coming to a close. It IS going to be an issue. Especially when you factor in those who aren't smart enough to evolve in their jobs and those who are simply too lazy to learn.
I was just looking at our company monthly news letter, on the back page were aniversreys, 6 people have been here 20 years.... as an operator

Seriously?
 
Who Will Lose Their Job to the Machines

William Lee invented a stocking frame knitting machine in 1589. After traveling to London to present his invention to Queen Elizabeth I, she responded, “Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” The Queen denied him the patent. Why? Because job security is not a new concern.

The researchers estimated that about 47% of the U.S. workforce was at risk.

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Over 700 jobs and their risks.

See? It's not immigrants who Red States should be concerned about.

dear the wheel plow hammer screw PC car and electric motor have displaced billions of workers and still we have only 5% unemployment.

Do you now see how stupid the liberal is?? What other conclusion is possible??
Huh? It's Republicans who hate immigrants and education. The two things they fear the most are the two things that will help them the most. WTF is wrong with you?
 
Who Will Lose Their Job to the Machines

William Lee invented a stocking frame knitting machine in 1589. After traveling to London to present his invention to Queen Elizabeth I, she responded, “Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” The Queen denied him the patent. Why? Because job security is not a new concern.

The researchers estimated that about 47% of the U.S. workforce was at risk.

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Over 700 jobs and their risks.

See? It's not immigrants who Red States should be concerned about.








Honestly, if we allow it, MOST manual labor jobs will be done by robots, faster, better, and clearly cheaper. The day of the no skill worker is coming to a close. It IS going to be an issue. Especially when you factor in those who aren't smart enough to evolve in their jobs and those who are simply too lazy to learn.
I was just looking at our company monthly news letter, on the back page were aniversreys, 6 people have been here 20 years.... as an operator

Seriously?
And you point is?
 
No Takers for post #45? OK... Physical labor is the only real work; and that, traditionally has been the first affected by technological innovation and implementation. Most of the masses tend to be physical laborers (blue collar) and they will bear the initial brunt of a decline in the labor market. But layers of managers won't be needed as the labor force diminishes; there won't be anyone to supervise. So who survives such a scenario?

The economy dies when people don't have money to spend. If that happens we will spiral into another world wide Great Depression. Liquid assets will probably become more precious than paper money. A modified version of Andrew Jackson's Specie Circular may be resurrected in demands for payment of even the most basic needs.

But what organization will step up to address this issue? WIll it be the UN; The Salvation Army :lol:; or the US government?
I guess that last entity's involvement will depend on whether Republicans or Democrats control the White House and House of Representatives where the purse strings are! But with no tax base, will a government be sustainable?
OK. I've said my 2 cents worth and made a fool of myself; but, at least I was brave enough to do it! :lol:
My "soliloquy" is over for now.
Regardless of which political party is in power at the on set a massive economic downtown, the government would provide economic stimulus regardless of the drop in tax revenue. Deficits would rise not just in the US but worldwide. The US would have no problem borrowing money because capital would flow into the US just it always does during a time crisis.

The question of course remains as to how you would provide long term employment and or subsidies. If automation were eliminating huge numbers of jobs, businesses would be making huge profits which would provide capital for business expansion and increases in taxes to provide financial assistance to redundant workers.

I'm a not sure that capital would flow from foreign sources to the USA in time of crisis as it did in the past. Wouldn't foreign investments and other holdings be nationalized in a world wide economic crisis; and, thereby strain international relations?
Besides, our credit rating has been lowered and there is talk of shifting the International monetary standard away from the dollar.
Who would or could loan us the necessary funds for day to day operations and a burgeoning welfare status?

Perhaps, though , the owners and managers of this super technology won't be Americans. There are other rising stars among the industrialized nations who are now just as capable of controlling the world through automation: Japan and possibly a united Germany. If that happens, will we go the way of the Romans... without a shot being fired because we can't pay the soldiers?
The world pours funds into US treasuries in a time of crisis because there are few good alternatives.There are only 7 countries in the world with a sovereign debt rating higher than than the US. Of those 7, 4 have far too little debt to satisfy large investors. The other 3, Germany, UK, and Canada, sell most of their debt withing the country.

The U.S. is still considered to be the best house in a bad neighborhood. Even though more than one third of the treasury debt is owned by foreigners, as long as there are no safer places to invest, money will find its way here. Even if investors seek safe havens in other nations, much of that money finds it's way back into the US treasury.

I think the technology of tomorrow will be globally owned. It may originate anywhere, but it will rapidly find it's way into the hands of multinationals.
 
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We use to think that their were limits to automation. Those were the days when we used machines to replicate the same process over and over. However with the rise artificial intelligent, there is no limit to how far automation can go. Machines can now exhibit intelligent behavior, they can learn by their mistakes, fix themselves, and demonstrated their ability solve complex problems with unknown variable. Fifty years ago computers were little more than glorified calculators the size of small a house and cost a million dollars. Today, a machine with far greater computing power can be bought hundred dollars and can fit in your pocket. We call them smart phones. It's almost unimaginable where technology will be in another 50 years.
 

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