CDZ Who Declared a War on Dead People and Their Statues and Why Ukraine Comes to Mind?

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by Stratford57, Aug 16, 2017.

  1. Xelor
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    Xelor Gold Member

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    JimBowie1958, would you mind telling me what you find funny about my having cited the findings of extreme bounds analysis (EBA) of coup d'etat determinants as the refutation to the OP-er's assertion?

    EBA is precisely the sort of analysis that addresses the question of "what matters and what doesn't matter all that much" in situations having many causes and one wants to figure out which of them alone or in concert with others is material to effecting a given outcome. ("Everything" matters, but each thing may or may not matter enough on its own to make a difference.) Indeed, in economics and other social sciences, EBA is a huge boon to overcoming the dilemmas of uncertainty, dissimilarity among variables (parm heterogeneity), and exceptional situations/outcomes. (A comparatively simple example of how EBA works and the proof for it is here: Reasonable Extreme Bounds Analysis.)

    What does EBA tell us about coups d'etat? It tells us that no single parameter alone -- including the one the OP mentioned -- is critical enough to reliably predict that a coup will result when that variable is present. That's not funny, it's a good thing. It tells us that, among other things, a nation's stability isn't going to "go to hell in a handbasket" at the "drop of a hat."
     
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  2. Stratford57
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    Stratford57 Platinum Member

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    It would be such a fair thing and USA and the whole world would feel a lot better and a lot safer if that happened. However we both know how many powerful people Soros has in his pockets and it's hard to imagine such a fair thing can happen to him. But everything is possible because everything is up to God in this world, not up to the people like Soros.
     
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  3. mamooth
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    mamooth Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Scratch a Soros-hater, and you always find a fascist. That's because Soros is anti-fascist and pro-democracy.

    Moscow and the agents of Moscow especially hate democracy, so they've got a propaganda machine dedicated to faking stories about Soros. These sorts of conspiraacy theories get a "pants on fire" rating from the fact-checkers.

    Alex Jones falsely says Soros, Clinton stoked Va. violence

    Alas, to the fascists, that just proves that the fact-checkers are part of a liberal conspiracy. There's no getting through their anti-reality bubble.
     
  4. Stratford57
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    Stratford57 Platinum Member

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    Soros is currently the main fascist in the world. He goes to any country, sponsors brainwashing the population there, divides it and then makes them kill each other in a war or a coup or both. He has done exactly the same in my home country of Ukraine and now is trying to do the same in YOUR country with YOUR stupid liberals help.

    You saud: Moscow and the agents of Moscow especially hate democracy, so they've got a propaganda machine dedicated to faking stories about Soros. These sorts of conspiraacy theories get a "pants on fire" rating from the fact-checkers.

    You would be right with a few corrections: SOROS and the agents of SOROS especially hate democracy, so they've got a propaganda machine dedicated to faking stories about PUTIN and TRUMP. These sorts of conspiraacy theories get a "pants on fire" rating from the fact-checkers.
    ------
    On Dec 20, 1998, on 60 Minutes did Steve Kroft interview George
    Soros where Soros, a Hungarian Jew, admitted collaborating with the Nazi's
    as a teenager and stated: "...I had no sense of guilt."
    George Soros, Nazi collaborator - snopes.com


    I give you George Soros. A SS in the National Socialist German workers party. Nazi party. He served under Adolf Hitler and Heinrich Himmler. He said it was the best time of his life. The destruction and agony around him was euphoric to him. This man was making policy with Hillary Clinton. And some of you think Trump is dangerous. Wow!
    Tom Dogionne


     
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  5. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Sure. You referenced this doc in stating that the conditions for a coup were not present by denying Stratfords claim that conditions are indeed good for a coup.
    Your document states around page 5:
    staging a coup would seem to be more attractive (and B should hence be larger) if one or more of the following three conditions are fulfilled. First, control over the state promises control over resources (which is, 5 for instance, the case if property rights are not secure, natural resources are abundant, inequality is high and the state apparatus is large).4 Second, the status quo of the elites or the military has been negatively affected by government policies that could be reversed easily in the aftermath of a coup (for instance, reduced military expenditure or liberalized economic sectors). In a similar vein, Tullock (2005) has argued that dictators maintain control by paying out benefits to those on whose loyalty they depend (see also Wintrobe 2012). If these payments are reduced by the incumbent regime, the net benefits of staging a coup may become positive for some actors. And third, the state does not depend financially on foreign governments being well disposed toward it (e.g., low dependence on foreign aid, not being under programs of the IMF or the World Bank, limited foreign trade).​

    ALL THREE CONDITIONS ARE MET TODAY here in the USA with an angry political establishment elite shocked that Trump won the last election and determined to do everything that they can to stop him, neutralize him and to remove him.

    But about this use of statistical models to tell us what can happen as opposed to what is merely more plausible, it doesnt work that way. The past historical record does not have DETERMINANTS in it, but only indicators as to future plausibility, not possibility.

    We are talking about the plausibility of a coup in a specific case, here in the USA. Mathematical/statistical models of what makes the conditions most likely for such an event cannot be used as a refutation for any specific event in a specific time and place. I took you to say it cant happen here because of the modeling for coups show that it is very unlikely to happen here.

    As an analogy. Suppose we are playing some parlor game and to win the game, in some final end game situation, you have to roll 2 six sided dice and beat a nine. Were I to tell you I have already won the game because the odds are much more likely that you will roll an 8 or less because that is how dice operate would be premature. Even though dice do usually roll 8 or less you could still roll a 12.

    Using statistics like this tells us about more fruitful methods, means, situations, etc, but it does not tell us what can happen, normally. You are saying that there is no determinant cause here, but that is conjecture based on incomplete information. For all we know the essential factors are there, but hidden from the public. Also, the events that are occurring are following many past chains of events that led to destabilized nations. That these mathematicians state that the past record of similar events has upper and lower ceilings and floors is at best dealing in mere plausibility. "Black Swan" events are always outside the record of known events and do happen.

    You are an educated and intelligent person, and I am sorry if my lol was insulting, but it was all I could do at the moment.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 18, 2017
  6. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Kidnapping him and secretly dumping him in Russia is a very pleasant thought.
     
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  7. IsaacNewton
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    IsaacNewton Gold Member

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    If conservative media would stop couching everything as 'a war on something' perhaps all the easily manipulated derps out there would stand down.
     
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  8. Stratford57
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    Stratford57 Platinum Member

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    What an excellent and profound post, Jim! :clap2:Top political expert wouldn't say better. I wish you could post an article like that in a Mainstream Media, people of your country need to look deep into the events taking place in USA now to be prepared to protect their country from internal enemy. However Soros owns almost all the Media and keeps feeding the people with self-created BS.

    upload_2017-8-18_11-9-15.png
     
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  9. The Sage of Main Street
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    The Sage of Main Street Silver Member

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    Kumbaya Gets KABOOMed

    The transnationalist Estabishment in America should be forced to consider that the rest of us have 300 million guns.
     
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  10. RodISHI
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    RodISHI Gold Member

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    He is also a puppet for others. These control freak haters and hate pushers who sell themselves for naught need to be stopped and taken out of control positions. This world is not theirs to do with as they please.
     
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