CDZ White House (Obama) Proclaims AI Robotics to Take Half of all Jobs

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by JimBowie1958, Dec 27, 2016.

  1. oldsoul
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    oldsoul Gold Member

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    Actually, I do get it. Strong AI can, maybe will, replace most jobs now performed by humans, from bussing tables, to driving cars, to designing, building and distributing cars. What I am saying, and apparently YOU don't get, is that ALL of this, including the "...but this is different" argument, has been made before, and every time new jobs that had never been thought of before were created. So, what tells you that the human desire to be productive will not win out in the face of AI?

    What YOU are failing to understand is that, history as a guide, I have faith that humans will be innovative and find ways to be productive.
    I'll even give you a few possible ideas:
    • Art, in all it's forms
    • Custom craftsmanship. (one of a kind furniture, mods to mass produced items, truly custom home renovations, etc.)
    • Medicine (I seriously doubt people would take kindly to a robot telling them they have terminal cancer)
    That's just three off the top of my head, and I'm not even an innovator. Imagine what people like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs could come up with...
     
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  2. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Because if a human can do it, a human can also program a Strong AI to do it also. And since the AI will learn from its mistake, share information with similar AI's that do similar things and works/thinks 24/7, it wont take the new computer more than a few weeks to do it better than any human being alive.

    See that is the 'gap' between the introduction of new technology and the maximized capitalization of the new industry that technology created. And the gap between those two points in time keeps getting smaller. Gun powder weapons was something only a handful of people knew in Western Europe in the 13th century, but by the American Revolution, every blacksmith could not only make gun powder and so could many other professions, and the blacksmith could make the guns and bullets as well. That took about 500 years to completely capitalize to the point that anyone, virtually could do it. Textile industries and furriers went through a similar but shorter cycle, on and on, till the cycle was only a few decades such as when computers went from big huge roomful machines to something so small you could put it on your lap, literally. Today new technologies are being introduced and they emerge with a maturation of a handful of years. The labor market is literally flooded with programmers of all kinds and the older programmers and marginal laborers are no longer able to find work.

    By 2030 none of them will be able to reliably find work unless they get retrained multiple times.

    But with Strong AI, the computers will be programmed and learn faster than the students can take the courses and get their degrees.

    IF you dont see the difference between that and every other technological cycle that preceded it, I cant help you.

    People are already getting some medical treatment from robots, dude. With insurance companies low balling their subscribers as much as they do, for example making people use generics instead of name brand medicine, they wont hesitate to require them to robotic doctors prior to going to human doctors.

    Money will be so hard to obtain that people will do without it, via barter and self made products that dont cost them money. It will slowly transition in over a couple of decades, but the people selling belts, jewelry, tools and gadgets at gun shows are already illustrating the capability of the home made product. And when there simply isnt enough people making cash to let it circulate as currency should, people will begin to trade it for other home made items and/or common commodities, like detergent and alcohol.

    In fact, all this is already happening in the Caribbean, drug networks and the black market.
     
  3. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: If we don't use robots, everyone else will

    Unlike fellow billionaire Bill Gates, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross doesn't see a tax as a solution to the threat of job automation.

    "I'm not in favor of trying to hold back technological advance," Ross told CNBC's "Squawk Alley" on Tuesday. "We need technological advance. And if we don't employ robots, the Chinese will, the Vietnamese will, the Europeans will, the Japanese will. Everyone will."

    Ross was asked about the idea that income generated by robots should be taxed at similar levels to human income tax — a suggestion Microsoft co-founder Gates made in an interview with Quartz last month.


    As a member of the new Republican administration, Ross told CNBC that regulation was not the way to jumpstart America's aspirations to bring back manufacturing jobs. Ross called overregulation the "single most important thing that bars" effective business decisions.
     
  4. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Forget your GP, robots will 'soon be able to diagnose more accurately than almost any doctor'

    Forget your GP, robots will 'soon be able to diagnose more accurately than almost any doctor'

    Robots will soon be able to diagnose patients “more accurately and faster” than almost any doctor, says the man behind a controversial NHS scheme which will see chatbots employed to assess 111 calls.

    A private company with a string of health service contracts is to launch a national scheme which allows patients to receive a full diagnosis by smartphone – without ever having to see a GP.

    Babylon Health has just begun a pilot scheme which means patients in five boroughs of London are encouraged to consult a chatbot instead of a human being, when they contact the 111 non-emergency line.

    Under the system, patients key in their symptoms, with artificial intelligence used to assess the urgency of each case, and determine whether users should be told to go to A&E, a pharmacy or tuck up at home.

    Now the company’s chief executive has revealed it is to launch a more sophisticated model which will allow any individual to receive a diagnosis by smartphone.

    Dr Ali Parsa, the company’s founder said the system would allow doctors to work in tandem with artificial intelligence – so that medics could focus on treating rather than diagnosing diseases.

    The entrepreneur said: “There are 300 million pieces of knowledge that we have collected.

    “No human brain can do that. This is the largest amount of primary care clinical semantic knowledge in the would that is held by any computer, as far as we know.”

    The model remains in development, but tests so far have shown it is faster and more accurate than the doctors in risk assessing cases, Dr Parsa said.

     
  5. sealybobo
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    sealybobo Diamond Member

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    This is why we need to limit immigration. And future American parents need to downsize their families and teach their kids to prepare themselves for the jobs that future human beings do.

    The cotton gin is the perfect example. It put a lot of people out of work. Should it not have been invented?
     
  6. sealybobo
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    sealybobo Diamond Member

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    Are you a trump supporter already making excuses for the job losses coming?
     
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  7. oldsoul
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    oldsoul Gold Member

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    This is all very interesting, however, you are still leaving the human factor out of your "equation". Humans have, and always will find new and creative ways to make "money", or whatever they need to be able to barter for what they cannot produce. That is all I am saying. I do not deny that your argument has merit, and that strong AI may, in fact, be able to do nearly everything we, as humans, currently do. Nevertheless, machines of all kinds have done this before, so I ask again, what is it that causes you to believe this will stop? What leads you to the conclusion that humans will innovate ourselves out of work? This just does not make sense to me. What has changed, or will change, about the human condition that we will accept doing nothing for ourselves and let machines do everything, including innovate?
     
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  8. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    What is different this time is that this new tech will produce products that can make, maintain and install themselves.

    That is a first time sort of thing.
     
  9. oldsoul
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    oldsoul Gold Member

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    Ok, and does that somehow change human nature?
     
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  10. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Yes, by changing the environment that human beings have to exist in.
     

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