barryqwalsh
Gold Member
- Sep 30, 2014
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GREG SHERIDAN
Turnbull’s right, Belgium terror less likely to strike Australia
- THE AUSTRALIAN
- MARCH 24, 2016 12:00AM
- Greg Sheridan
Malcolm Turnbull is right.Australia is in a much better position in terms of security from terrorists than Belgium, and especially Brussels. He is also right that we have the benefits of geography, and particularly of strong borders, for which the Coalition government deserves credit.
The Prime Minister is also right that some European nations have let their security arrangements slip. He was too polite to say so but this applies to a degree almost beyond parody in Belgium.
This is a rare Western country where chaotic, dysfunctional politics has led to chaotic, dysfunctional security services.
Yet, of course, the first emotion to feel is sympathy and solidarity for the innocent Belgians, and to reflect again on the cruelty and madness of Islamic State jihadism.
Nonetheless, as Turnbull also suggested, Australia remains under threat. Counter-terror arrests continue and the threat level is set at probable.
Terrorism is most unlikely to be a partisan issue at the election. The Turnbull government is well trusted by the electorate on national security, and for good reason. I have my quibbles about the timing of new submarines but Canberra takes national security seriously and our agencies work well, especially ASIO and the state and federal police forces.
The wretched Belgian attacks symbolise a larger reality as well. While some Australians may not be interested much in the world, the world is interested in them.
It is unlikely foreign or even defence policy will figure heavily as a partisan issue in the federal election. Bill Shorten’s opposition has been conspicuously bipartisan on these key issues. As befits a mature democracy, Australia’s strategic settings are stable and broadly supported not only by the political class but across the community.
This is an inestimable national strength. It’s worth remarking, too, how little the rapid turnover of prime ministers in the past decade has dented our international standing. Western politics is messy everywhere. Not having yet fully adapted to social media, and in the grip of a global economic slowdown and stagnant living standards for the middle class, Western electorates are acting irresponsibly and unpredictably. The dynamics of celebrity are trumping solid performance.
Not many Australians followed the recent Irish election but it was instructive. The government had an enviable record of economic achievement. It graduated from International Monetary Fund dependence, got debt and deficit under control, reignited economic growth and achieved solid reductions in unemployment.
At the election it got flogged, with votes sprayed around every lunatic, fruitcake party on the Emerald Isle. The detestable Sinn Fein, with its record of terror and murder, which the southern Irish never voted for in serious proportions, became a big player, outpolling all but the two main parties, recording a big swing to it in votes and seats. Voting for Sinn Fein is the functional equivalent of voting for Donald Trump. It’s a flight from reality and decency.
Australia’s political changes in recent years have all been lawful, peaceful, within our constitutional framework and have involved the replacement of one mainstream figure with another. We shouldn’t go on changing prime ministers this frequently. But all our international partners, friends and potential foes alike, look on Australia and see enormous strength.
Our institutions work, our defence force works, our economy is big and growing. We are one of the only advanced economies that has several built-in engines of growth. We are the only Western nation that remains seriously underpopulated. We have a higher birthrate than mature Western societies or the Confucian giants of northeast Asia such as Japan and South Korea. Even China’s population will soon enough start to decline. Beyond our birthrate we have one of the biggest per capita immigration programs in the world. We are built for growth.
Nearly one-third of Australians were born overseas, a much higher proportion even than the US. Our settlement record is vastly more successful than anything in Europe, perhaps anywhere in the world. Increasingly all across Asia people have relatives in Australia and know from their relatives’ experience that we are a stable, friendly, prosperous nation. This is true of many Europeans as well.
Of course, we can still bugger things up if we really put our mind to it. Turnbull had to do a good deal of rewriting of his foreign policy speech yesterday. Terrorism aside, his view of the region is smart, realistic and relatively optimistic. It starts from recognising the changing dynamics of the regional economy. China is slowing and we can no longer rely entirely on mineral exports to China. But as China slows a little, new centres of regional economic growth are emerging, such as India and Indonesia, and even nations such as Vietnam and The Philippines. Our strategic orientation is anchored in the US alliance, and Turnbull and Shorten both support this.
But a more multipolar region does not just mean Chinese power rising relative to US power. It also means other Asian powers rising relative to China. To use the Prime Minister’s favourite word, Australia does need to be agile to respond to all this. And notwithstanding the adjustment problems involved in coming off the minerals boom, Australia in many ways has never been more in demand in the region because of the growth bias in our economy and the stability and effectiveness of our society and institutions.
This regional strategic outlook has to mesh in with the counter-terror approach. As Turnbull argues, it would be wrong to see Australia’s strategic circumstances solely, or I would say even primarily, through the counter-terror lens.
Nonetheless, US President Barack Obama is wrong to suggest terrorism can never be an existential threat. The terror franchise has lost some territory in Syria and Iraq but it continues to recruit and gain adherents around the world. Its best organised elements continue to seek access to nuclear materials and other weapons of carnage. And it can have a decisive effect on the internal politics of nations, as evident not only in Iraq and Syria but to some extent even in nations such as Pakistan.
That in turn can have profound effects on international conflict, even in our own region. The world has certainly never before been so interconnected, in terms of its threats as well as its opportunities.
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