which state will go under first?

[william the wie]

There's no need to bet because the timeline is uncertain. Munis have been paying a lot more aftertax than treasuries for quite a while now based on risk and games like those that have been played in CA munis and that does have its effects.

For example the reason rig count went down so fast is that wildcat drillers got loan covenants that CA and IL can only fantasize about. The reason rig count is coming back slow is the Gatwick field and other less famous fracking fields overseas. Even the latest uptick in CalPers returns is not likely to reduce the rates and covenants that CA has to put up with.