CDZ Which State is most likely to Start the Blue Wall Defaults?

[william the wie]

And your guess as to when.

 

[william the wie]

My guess is IL @ Sept.

 

[martybegan]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

 

[william the wie]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

 

[martybegan]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

Never underestimate the ability of governments to pass off debt and keep the $$ coming in just....a.....bit.....longer.

 

[william the wie]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

Never underestimate the ability of governments to pass off debt and keep the $$ coming in just....a.....bit.....longer.

True but it is getting harder to roll over the debt.

 

[Rambunctious]

"And your guess as to when"


California...last year...

 

[rightwinger]

Texas will go blue first

 

[martybegan]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

Never underestimate the ability of governments to pass off debt and keep the $$ coming in just....a.....bit.....longer.

True but it is getting harder to roll over the debt.

You would have to see a massive exodus of the taxpaying base on a state-wide scale. a few cities here or there won't cause the downfall.

 

[Rambunctious]

Red wave is coming....

 

[william the wie]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

Never underestimate the ability of governments to pass off debt and keep the $$ coming in just....a.....bit.....longer.

True but it is getting harder to roll over the debt.

You would have to see a massive exodus of the taxpaying base on a state-wide scale. a few cities here or there won't cause the downfall.

IL is already experiencing perhaps the largest exodus of any state in percentage terms. It has been going on for a very long time according to resident IL posters.

 

[martybegan]

Illinois, but not for another 5 years or so.

Interest rates are climbing and some IL agencies and towns have been flirting with junk status for a while.

Never underestimate the ability of governments to pass off debt and keep the $$ coming in just....a.....bit.....longer.

True but it is getting harder to roll over the debt.

You would have to see a massive exodus of the taxpaying base on a state-wide scale. a few cities here or there won't cause the downfall.

IL is already experiencing perhaps the largest exodus of any state in percentage terms. It has been going on for a very long time according to resident IL posters.

Yeah, but I still can't see a true State level default happening in the next 5 years.

Unless of course we enter a new depression, then all bets are off.

 

[rightwinger]

Texas is in jeopardy

Let’s see how Ted Cruz does in November and then assess how soon Texas will go blue

Why the close Ted Cruz- Beto O'Rourke poll should make Republicans nervous - CNNPolitics

 

[jwoodie]

(Reuters) - America’s 50 state governments owe $4.19 trillion, including outstanding bonds, unfunded pension commitments and budget gaps, according to a new report.

At $617.6 billion, California had by far the biggest total debt, more than twice the total of No. 2, New York, with $300.1 billion owed, according to State Budget Solutions, a research and non-partisan advocacy group.

Texas, with $287 billion owed, New Jersey, with $282.4 billion, and Illinois, with $271.1 billion, ranked next among states with the biggest total debt, according to State Budget Solutions.

 

[jwoodie]

I don't think any State will be allowed to fail, but there will (or should) be strict financial reform requirements as a condition of any federal bailout.

 

[Tax Man]

And your guess as to when.

Texass and next year!

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Almost certainly Illinois.

 

[william the wie]

Almost certainly Illinois.

While certainly the most probable the other four biggies really could beat IL to default. If IL is one in probability and CA, MA, NJ and NY are 0.4 probable each then the odds are 2 to 1 against IL being first to go into bond default.

IL has been in vendor default for @ 20 years.

NYC, Buffalo, Rochester et al and therefore NY have had numerous shortlived technical defaults over the past century.

CA has used IOUs as a substitute for default many times

NJ has a long border with lower tax PA.

MA has the best lobbyists in the country .