Which Polling Was Most Accurate?

[Sarah G]

Surprise! You'll Never Guess Who Was The Most Accurate Pollster This Election Season...

Fordham's political science department has published a list of the most and least accurate pollsters of the 2012 campaign between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The top and bottom of the list are equally surprising. Two left-leaning Democratic pollsters top the list: Public Policy Polling, which nailed the election prediction if Florida goes for Obama, and the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, a weekly tracking poll.

Meanwhile, near the bottom of the list is the poll that we've been tracking for a while now — Gallup. It came in 24th out of 27 polls in the rankings.

Also notable: YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos, which rank an impressive third and fourth in the list, are conducted online.

Here's the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama, and polls without were more favorable to Romney):

1. PPP (D)*

1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*

3. YouGov*

4. Ipsos/Reuters*

5. Purple Strategies

6. NBC/WSJ

6. CBS/NYT

6. YouGov/Economist

9. UPI/CVOTER

10. IBD/TIPP

11. Angus-Reid*

12. ABC/WP*

13. Pew Research*

13. Hartford Courant/UConn*

15. CNN/ORC

15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA

15. Politico/GWU/Battleground

15. FOX News

15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics

15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics

15. American Research Group

15. Gravis Marketing

23. Democracy Corps (D)*

24. Rasmussen

24. Gallup

26. NPR

27. National Journal*

28. AP/GfK

http://www.businessinsider.com/most...romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11

Interesting, I had seen Charlie Cook on a special broadcast with Chuck Todd and he was also very accurate on that broadcast. His website has a subscription that is pay to read, over $300 but I was considering getting it next time as I couldn't trust the polling this time.

 

[Sarah G]

The Four Absurd Assumptions About The Polls That People Got Completely Wrong

The popular conservative theory that pre-election polls were systematically wrong or biased in President Barack Obama's favor was proven to be completely unfounded Tuesday.

Based on Election Day exit polls, here are four big assumptions about pre-election polling that turned out to be myths:

PARTY ID: During the campaign, conservatives embraced a theory that polls were skewed, based on the thought that the electorate could not possibly lean as heavily Democratic as it did in 2008. In the end, though, the party ID makeup in 2012 was 38 percent Democratic, 32 percent Republican and 29 percent Independent, almost identical to 2008's 39-32-29 split.

LATINO AND AFRICAN-AMERICAN TURNOUT: A big question hovering around Obama's re-election was whether he could turn out Latino and African-American voters. With lower Democratic enthusiasm overall, it was assumed that these demographics wouldn't turn out at the same levels as 2008. But African-Americans made up the same percentage of the electorate as they did in 2008 (13 percent), and the Latino percentage actually increased from 9 percent to 10 percent.

YOUTH TURNOUT: Similarly, it was assumed that young people would not be as enthused, and thus would not turn out at the levels they did in 2008. But 18-to-29-year-olds made up 19 percent of the electorate in 2012, up from 18 percent in 2008.

THE CATHOLIC VOTE: Obama's support among Catholics was expected to be hurt because of his administration's high-profile scuffle with the Catholic Church over the contraception mandate in the Affordable Care Act earlier this year. But Obama won the Catholic vote by a 50-48 margin— a drop from the previous election, but not the catastrophic slide that some projected.

Obama Vs. Romney Exit Polls: What Everyone Got Wrong - Business Insider

Good site.

 

[CrotchetyGeezer]

Surprise! You'll Never Guess Who Was The Most Accurate Pollster This Election Season...

Fordham's political science department has published a list of the most and least accurate pollsters of the 2012 campaign between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The top and bottom of the list are equally surprising. Two left-leaning Democratic pollsters top the list: Public Policy Polling, which nailed the election prediction if Florida goes for Obama, and the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, a weekly tracking poll.

Meanwhile, near the bottom of the list is the poll that we've been tracking for a while now — Gallup. It came in 24th out of 27 polls in the rankings.

Also notable: YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos, which rank an impressive third and fourth in the list, are conducted online.

Here's the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama, and polls without were more favorable to Romney):

1. PPP (D)*

1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*

3. YouGov*

4. Ipsos/Reuters*

5. Purple Strategies

6. NBC/WSJ

6. CBS/NYT

6. YouGov/Economist

9. UPI/CVOTER

10. IBD/TIPP

11. Angus-Reid*

12. ABC/WP*

13. Pew Research*

13. Hartford Courant/UConn*

15. CNN/ORC

15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA

15. Politico/GWU/Battleground

15. FOX News

15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics

15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics

15. American Research Group

15. Gravis Marketing

23. Democracy Corps (D)*

24. Rasmussen

24. Gallup

26. NPR

27. National Journal*

28. AP/GfK

Most Accurate Polls Of 2012 Election - Business Insider

Interesting, I had seen Charlie Cook on a special broadcast with Chuck Todd and he was also very accurate on that broadcast. His website has a subscription that is pay to read, over $300 but I was considering getting it next time as I couldn't trust the polling this time.

Yeah, I guess a poll can be pretty close when an election is rigged...huh? I mean, if a poll says I should have ten apples and I've only got three apples, I can run out and buy seven more apples so my number of apples jives with what the poll says I should have. When the polling agencies are bought off by the president and his minions and work in concert with the president and his minions (along with the media), it's easy to get an accurate poll number. That's how Hitler did it. He made sure the polls said he'd get such and such amount of the vote and, walla, he got that much of the vote. And, that's pretty much standard practice with most of your everyday common dictators.

 

[Numeros]

That's how Hitler did it. He made sure the polls said he'd get such and such amount of the vote and, walla, he got that much of the vote.

Did Hitler ever visit Voila Voila Voishington?

 

[elvis]

My pole is always accurate.