Which candidate has a steeper climb this election: Obama or Romney?

[Billy000]

Forget what you think of their policies. Who do you think has a better chance in this election?

 

[Lakhota]

Romney has the steeper climb; Obama has the better chance!

 

[California Girl]

I think it's a hard call. Naturally, the partisans will be unable to see that but there's a good article in The Economist about it. Seems to sum it up fairly well, to me.

The recovery and the election: That 2004 feeling | The Economist

WITH an election less than a year away and the structural headwinds holding back job growth, time is not on the president’s side.


Or so this newspaper warned in October 2003. The fact that George Bush junior went on to be re-elected may be encouraging for Barack Obama. Job growth in the current recovery has been shockingly weak, but the same was true of the previous two recoveries. The turnaround came too late to save the job of George Bush senior. But his son fared better. Employment continued to fall for nearly two years after his recession ended in November 2001, but reversed direction in time to save his job...

 

[Claudette]

Barrys the encumbant but he's got to defend his not so stellar record.

I think he has the tougher row to hoe.

 

[G.T.]

They're polling even = it's an equal climb.

 

[JoeB131]

Oh, easily, Romney. For the following reasons

1) Incumbancy- Huge advantage. you control the news cycle.

2) Likability- Obama is far more likable as a person than Romney is.

3) Money- Obama will have a billion dollars to spend.

4) As I said in another thread, the 69 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 aren't about to admit they goofed, while Romney has to win over 59 million of us who voted for McCain all over again.

5) Obama doesn't belong to a freakish cult.

6) The economy is getting better. Pretty much nullifies Romney's main argument.

7) Romney is going to have to play a very careful balancing act with Ron Paul. Accomedate him too much, you'll scare away the straights. Alienate him, he and his supporters bail for a third party. Think Pat Buchanan screeching about "sodomites" at the 1992 convention because Bush-41 felt a need to try to win over his supporters, who were already rallying around Perot.

8) THird party- The feature of the last two incumbants to lose was that a third party cut deep into his base. If a third party shows up this time, it'll be cutting into Romney's base.

9) Enthusiasm- Obama's supporters are enthused. Romney's supporters don't really like him, for the most part, they just hate Obama. If hate got you the prize, Kerry would have won in 2004.

10) When ordinary Americans (not Republican primary voters) find out how many lives Romney ruined in that quest for a fourth mansion, he's going to be hated by a lot of working folks who've been battered by this recession.