Where will Real Estate Bottom?

[Terral]

Hi William:

... I would expect at least another 57% drop to 90K before a bottom is reached.

What are your estimates for future decline and why?

There is no bottom in the housing market in an 'imploding' economy. The day is coming when your house will be worth zero, because the Federal, State and Local governments are doing nothing to protect the 'jobs' of consumers in your area. Think about it: Your house is worth what another American is willing to pay on any given day. NAFTA offshoring of the manufacturing base has shipped jobs overseas. Outsouring of too many jobs has shipped too many jobs south of the border and overseas. Twenty-three guest worker programs bring in 1.5 million foreigners every year that displace more American workers from jobs and we have 20 million goddamned Illegal Aliens stealing identities and jobs from even more U.S. citizens; which means fewer and fewer citizens in your area that can make an offer on your house.

Rather than enforcing the employment laws in Florida, about 1 million Illegal Aliens are allowed to act as a cheap illegal alien labor pool. Banks do not lend money, because the value of your house will be 25 percent less next year and 50 percent less the year after that and they know it. Interest rates are beginning to go up, which also reduces the amount of purchasing power for any interested borrower trying to make an offer on your house.

The smart people with mortgages are not making payments, but saving their money for the move into a rental; until the coming economic collapse. THEN take whatever money remains and invest in a house with new prices reflecting the 10,000 dollars you spent at the very beginning. ;0)

GL,

Terral

 

[ScreamingEagle]

I have been looking over data for Jax Beach FL and I find the Case-Shiller data even more optimistic than ever. Looking at houses here are the trendlines

By 1990 virtually all land within the city limits had been developed.

In 1972 the house I live in was bought by wife for 10K.

In 1985 we were advised to list at 40K.

In 2000-2 some of my wife's friends bought the same model house at 100-120K for a value based on distance from the ocean of 100K for our home.

At peak based on Zillow numbers value was about 350K.

Current value for comparables about 210K.

I would expect at least another 57% drop to 90K before a bottom is reached.

What are your estimates for future decline and why?

What was your house worth in the downturn of the early 1990s..? That is one prediction...

Of course all bets are off if the economy totally implodes as Terral says...real estate after all is about 25% of our economy...can we survive another big hit....?

So what will all this mean for the economy? It'll mean that the second "dip" will be upon us, the one that all the experts claimed would never happen because of the inspiring leadership of the Fed. Foreclosures, after the legal issues with robosigning have been pushed aside, will return to 2010 levels, and by the end of 2011 they'll be accelerating. The already beaten down real estate market will take new hits, possibly driving prices down to levels not seen since the early 1990s. People who thought they had new jobs will suddenly find themselves unemployed again, as employers once again try to stem the bleeding while the economy falls back into stagnation and threatens to go into freefall.

2011 Will Begin With Hope and End With Despair

 

[Toro]

I think we're in the process of bottoming now.

 

[william the wie]

I think we're in the process of bottoming now.

From your mouth to God's ear but I think we have several false bottoms ahead of us.

 

[loosecannon]

There is no bottom in the housing market in an 'imploding' economy. The day is coming when your house will be worth zero, because the Federal, State and Local governments are doing nothing to protect the 'jobs' of consumers in your area. Think about it: Your house is worth what another American is willing to pay on any given day.

In America even foreigners who never stepped foot on our continent can buy your house. Or your mortgage, or your job, or even your senator if they are guile enough.

No as long as the dollar is the safest refuge, or the commodity exchange currency and as long as the US is one of the world's preferred places to live your home will always sell for more than it is worth.

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

as long as you build houses like huts and pay for them as if they were castles, i can´t see a turning point in your real estate problem.

american house

german house

 

[Zander]

as long as you build houses like huts and pay them as if they were castles, i can´t see a turning point in your real estate problem.

american house

german house

Xenophobic much??

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

Xenophobic much??

no, proud and educated craftsman. what you call a house we use for our dogs. Every time i see in the news when a tornado has blown away a hole village i ask myself when you will understand the differece between houses and barracks

 

[william the wie]

Depends upon where you build. The German house you show would not meet code for either hurricane zones (looks like a mid-1960s hurricane code house) or in your US illustration what looks like earthquake code zones. Germany is a bit larger than Texas but not greatly so with a much lower range of climates also American houses have always been built with the expectation of sale or abandonment. Free housing in the ghost towns of the west and midwest have always been available for a registration fee. Right this minute you can go online and get your own American vacation home for free in Iowa and Kansas. But the really big deals are north of the border in Canada where 1990s vintage mining towns complete with hospitals and airports are available for sale.

 

[loosecannon]

Stick frame houses are the most earthquake proof of all structures.

 

[Toro]

Xenophobic much??

no, proud and educated craftsman. what you call a house we use for our dogs. Every time i see in the news when a tornado has blown away a hole village i ask myself when you will understand the differece between houses and barracks

The German house looks much smaller.

 

[GWV5903]

as long as you build houses like huts and pay for them as if they were castles, i can´t see a turning point in your real estate problem.

american house

german house

I hate to burst your bubble, but there are roughly 161.2 million more people in the USA who own a home than in Germany, thats 63% vs 42%, I would venture to guess that cost is the number one factor....

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

we have no problem to live in flats or apartments. Houses with 3-10 Families in it are normal here. Not everybody has to have his own house.

 

[Zander]

we have no problem to live in flats or apartments. Houses with 3-10 Families in it are normal here. Not everybody has to have his own house.

The reality is that with your high taxation rates (over 35% of GDP!!) and welfare state - most Germans simply can't afford their own homes. Every society has trade offs - Germans give up privacy and freedom for the false security of government entitlements.

I have a house and a gun - I'll take that over what you have any day.


PS - my house is made of wood - designed to withstand earthquakes. Your windowless bunker would fall apart.

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

we have no problem to live in flats or apartments. Houses with 3-10 Families in it are normal here. Not everybody has to have his own house.

The reality is that with your high taxation rates (over 35% of GDP!!) and welfare state - most Germans simply can't afford their own homes. Every society has trade offs - Germans give up privacy and freedom for the false security of government entitlements.

I have a house and a gun - I'll take that over what you have any day.

PS - my house is made of wood - designed to withstand earthquakes. You're windowless bunker would fall apart.

believe it or not, we have sometimes earthquakes here too. And no houses were crashing down then. And til this damn clima change, we got even our first tornados. And no houses are blown away.

I haven´t a house or a gun. I´ve got a fine neighbourhood, i can trust in. I can let my door unlocked for the whole night without having fear to become robbed out. I prefer that, even my social safety, my health insurance, my free school and university education system, the fine german infrastructure, the peace and freedom in the entire europe and the low criminal rate. And if i want, i could become here a millionaire too.

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

I hate to burst your bubble, but there are roughly 161.2 million more people in the USA who own a home than in Germany, thats 63% vs 42%, I would venture to guess that cost is the number one factor....

well, whatever you call a "house". I´ve seen these cheap plank shacks standing everywhere between kansas city and vegas when i visited your country.

We just love quality here. And that has always its price. The new heat insulation rules and regulations are very strict but we take our responsibility to sink our CO2 emission. In addition, here are living 350 people on a square mile. In the US, it´s only 45 people on a square mile. We have to live more close here but it works fine. Single-Family houses aren´t this wise when you have to pack 82M people (what´s a quater of the us citizens) on 360K square kilometres (whats 1/26 of the plain of the us) .

 

[Zander]

we have no problem to live in flats or apartments. Houses with 3-10 Families in it are normal here. Not everybody has to have his own house.

The reality is that with your high taxation rates (over 35% of GDP!!) and welfare state - most Germans simply can't afford their own homes. Every society has trade offs - Germans give up privacy and freedom for the false security of government entitlements.

I have a house and a gun - I'll take that over what you have any day.

PS - my house is made of wood - designed to withstand earthquakes. You're windowless bunker would fall apart.

believe it or not, we have sometimes earthquakes here too. And no houses were crashing down then. And til this damn clima change, we got even our first tornados. And no houses are blown away.

I haven´t a house or a gun. I´ve got a fine neighbourhood, i can trust in. I can let my door unlocked for the whole night without having fear to become robbed out. I prefer that, even my social safety, my health insurance, my free school and university education system, the fine german infrastructure, the peace and freedom in the entire europe and the low criminal rate. And if i want, i could become here a millionaire too.

We all bow to your "german superiority"..... You truly are the "master race" SIEG HEIL!!!!!

 

[loosecannon]

we have no problem to live in flats or apartments. Houses with 3-10 Families in it are normal here. Not everybody has to have his own house.

The reality is that with your high taxation rates (over 35% of GDP!!) and welfare state - most Germans simply can't afford their own homes. Every society has trade offs - Germans give up privacy and freedom for the false security of government entitlements.

I have a house and a gun - I'll take that over what you have any day.

PS - my house is made of wood - designed to withstand earthquakes. You're windowless bunker would fall apart.

believe it or not, we have sometimes earthquakes here too. And no houses were crashing down then. And til this damn clima change, we got even our first tornados. And no houses are blown away.

I haven´t a house or a gun. I´ve got a fine neighbourhood, i can trust in. I can let my door unlocked for the whole night without having fear to become robbed out. I prefer that, even my social safety, my health insurance, my free school and university education system, the fine german infrastructure, the peace and freedom in the entire europe and the low criminal rate. And if i want, i could become here a millionaire too.

Serious earthquakes are rare in Germany, though blasting in coal mining areas of Saarland are known to trigger tremors. A quake measuring 4.0 on the Richter scale in Saarwellingen in 2008 reportedly knocked over chimneys and caused power outages, sparking protests against coal mining.

Rhine-Main region shaken by earthquake - The Local

what we call serious quakes here (6.5 and larger) are 500 times the magnitude of the "large" quakes that topple chimneys in Germany.

 

[Mr. Sauerkraut]

We all bow to your "german superiority"..... You truly are the "master race" SIEG HEIL!!!!!

do you really have to acknowledge the worsest prejudices the world has to the americans? Is that all you´re able to, gun-lover?

btw: your name is german too.

 

[Cuyo]

The reality is that with your high taxation rates (over 35% of GDP!!) and welfare state - most Germans simply can't afford their own homes. Every society has trade offs - Germans give up privacy and freedom for the false security of government entitlements.

I have a house and a gun - I'll take that over what you have any day.

PS - my house is made of wood - designed to withstand earthquakes. You're windowless bunker would fall apart.

believe it or not, we have sometimes earthquakes here too. And no houses were crashing down then. And til this damn clima change, we got even our first tornados. And no houses are blown away.

I haven´t a house or a gun. I´ve got a fine neighbourhood, i can trust in. I can let my door unlocked for the whole night without having fear to become robbed out. I prefer that, even my social safety, my health insurance, my free school and university education system, the fine german infrastructure, the peace and freedom in the entire europe and the low criminal rate. And if i want, i could become here a millionaire too.

We all bow to your "german superiority"..... You truly are the "master race" SIEG HEIL!!!!!

Well that was fuckin' uncalled for, ya jerk.