Where is the September effect?

william the wie

Gold Member
Nov 18, 2009
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On average over the past 100 years the stock market goes down in September by about 1% with mid-term election years being particularly good short years. So why isn't it happening?
 
Because the market goes up something like 45% of the time in September.

The SP500 is up 5.26% over the first three days of the year. If September were to end today, this September would be the seventh best September in 82 years.
 
Because the market goes up something like 45% of the time in September.

The SP500 is up 5.26% over the first three days of the year. If September were to end today, this September would be the seventh best September in 82 years.

um as of Friday the SP was down 1% over all on the year, the nasdaq 1.6% only the DOW was up on the year. By .2% and only after last weeks rally.
 
Because the market goes up something like 45% of the time in September.

The SP500 is up 5.26% over the first three days of the year. If September were to end today, this September would be the seventh best September in 82 years.

um as of Friday the SP was down 1% over all on the year, the nasdaq 1.6% only the DOW was up on the year. By .2% and only after last weeks rally.

For the month of September thus far, the SP500 is up 5.26% this month. The market has risen over 5% in three days.
 
Well I hope it tanks soon so that I can get in my second positions for 12/10 and hopefully 12/11 as well
 
Because the market goes up something like 45% of the time in September.

The SP500 is up 5.26% over the first three days of the year. If September were to end today, this September would be the seventh best September in 82 years.

um as of Friday the SP was down 1% over all on the year, the nasdaq 1.6% only the DOW was up on the year. By .2% and only after last weeks rally.

For the month of September thus far, the SP500 is up 5.26% this month. The market has risen over 5% in three days.

Yep, does not change the fact that the SP is still down on the year. DOH!

Most crashes are proceeded by a rally by the way. Just sayin.
 
But this month is crazy the Yen may reach Y80=$1, the PIIGS are in ever deeper trouble and in China it sure sounds like even the secret police are uncertain of how leveraged the economy is. How do markets go up in a mess like this?
 
But this month is crazy the Yen may reach Y80=$1, the PIIGS are in ever deeper trouble and in China it sure sounds like even the secret police are uncertain of how leveraged the economy is. How do markets go up in a mess like this?

Manipulation.

The Chinese have been deliberately devaluing their currency to benefit from our Massive trade deficit with them. By the way.
 
September 7th


Don't we still have 23 days left in September?


IS THERE SOMETHING SOMEONE"S NOT TELLING ME????!!!!:(
Oh quite true. But I was expecting to be around S&P 840 now with resistance building somewhere around 800 later this month.
 
September 7th


Don't we still have 23 days left in September?


IS THERE SOMETHING SOMEONE"S NOT TELLING ME????!!!!:(
Oh quite true. But I was expecting to be around S&P 840 now with resistance building somewhere around 800 later this month.

840-800 is a pretty narrow spread over 23 days. When you consider the 13 point fall just today, closing at 1092, in linear terms you could still easily be correct.
 
Anomalies bother me. And there are a lot of them in the current economy. Take the false signal of increased savings. Those savings are solely a result of debt writedowns. Worse yet gross writedowns are smaller than net writedowns, that means that on average those with credit are for the most part increasing their indebtedness. The age structure of the population is not favorable for recovery. Yet we do have a semi-recovery being reported, that is really bad.
 
I just put my entire life savings into pork bellies today on a hunch.

I base this hunch on absolutely nothing.
 
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Only if you pinky swear that it's not for pump and dumps.
 
Hmmm....... Well, September done past and gone. Guess we learned who the best and worst prophets are on the board. October has an interesting start, also.
 

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