Where is the Obligatory Panic Thread?

[Toddsterpatriot]

There is always a down turn with any major profit taking! I don't care if you are a mom and pop with five employees. If you give a raise that's profit TAKING. All those companies who gave bonuses and raises have to take that out of their future earnings. That lessens the price of the stock because FUTURE expected earnings are effected!

And the more companies who give a bonus or raise the more the market has to re-adjust for that impact. It's just simple economics even a liberal should understand. If you give your child a 1000 dollar bonus your bank account is about to be 1000 dollars poorer okay? If you give your child 5 dollars a week increase in allowance then your monthly income is down 20 dollars okay?

More money in their pocket means less in YOURS. The bonuses and raises were profit taking.

FURY

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

There is always a down turn with any major profit taking! I don't care if you are a mom and pop with five employees. If you give a raise that's profit TAKING. All those companies who gave bonuses and raises have to take that out of their future earnings. That lessens the price of the stock because FUTURE expected earnings are effected!

And the more companies who give a bonus or raise the more the market has to re-adjust for that impact. It's just simple economics even a liberal should understand. If you give your child a 1000 dollar bonus your bank account is about to be 1000 dollars poorer okay? If you give your child 5 dollars a week increase in allowance then your monthly income is down 20 dollars okay?

More money in their pocket means less in YOURS. The bonuses and raises were profit taking.

FURY

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

 

[DOTR]

The money machine lately has been in shorting the VIX. Huge amounts of money made there. That must now be unwound. God help those who rode it too long and unwinding it will cause volatility for all.
We need a good correction but this aint it (yet).For the YTD the market is down what 4%? And still up 18% since trump inaugurated.
It will have to go deeper than this to do some good i'm afraid unless we get in a wall of worry situation with a sideways market against rising interest rates and balance sheet deleveraging. I do expect tax cuts to counteract the need for a decline somewhat.

All that to say "who knows?". But we are in far better shape with trump than the we were with the kenyan.

 

[william the wie]

Sounds right to me. About 22,500 on the Dow would reflect actual economic growth but that is still good.

 

[DarkFury]

There is always a down turn with any major profit taking! I don't care if you are a mom and pop with five employees. If you give a raise that's profit TAKING. All those companies who gave bonuses and raises have to take that out of their future earnings. That lessens the price of the stock because FUTURE expected earnings are effected!

And the more companies who give a bonus or raise the more the market has to re-adjust for that impact. It's just simple economics even a liberal should understand. If you give your child a 1000 dollar bonus your bank account is about to be 1000 dollars poorer okay? If you give your child 5 dollars a week increase in allowance then your monthly income is down 20 dollars okay?

More money in their pocket means less in YOURS. The bonuses and raises were profit taking.

FURY

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

There is always a down turn with any major profit taking! I don't care if you are a mom and pop with five employees. If you give a raise that's profit TAKING. All those companies who gave bonuses and raises have to take that out of their future earnings. That lessens the price of the stock because FUTURE expected earnings are effected!

And the more companies who give a bonus or raise the more the market has to re-adjust for that impact. It's just simple economics even a liberal should understand. If you give your child a 1000 dollar bonus your bank account is about to be 1000 dollars poorer okay? If you give your child 5 dollars a week increase in allowance then your monthly income is down 20 dollars okay?

More money in their pocket means less in YOURS. The bonuses and raises were profit taking.

FURY

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

depending on where the profit taking was taking place there might have been a flavor of extortion involved. Except for retail the labor shortage is getting huge here in FL. Business construction began before the tax bill passed.

There is also the problem that high tech is getting commoditized with Apple, Amazon and the rest of the FANG companies all in correction territory. Mitsubishi (US) is competing with Tesla for low cost cleaner air pick up trucks.

The other side of the coin is that NYC is going through a housing market crash and CA is seeing its tax base implode.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

 

[DarkFury]

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

The labor shortage will cause the next round of profit taking as wages increase. 3% of the population is either to old or disabled to work. So the closer you get to 4% unemployment the higher wages go. If unemployment hits 4 and GDP also hits 4 you will see a stable balance.

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

 

[william the wie]

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

What appears to be terrifying many people is the following:

two trillion in repatriation funds. Using the same multiplier of 5 that is $10T of GDP

$1-2T in renegotiating NAFTA. 1-2 years out.

WTO compliant tariffs 3-6T investment from TPP and EU countries and the UK to avoid tariffs.

current GDP 19.5

Then there is the default wave in the Blue Wall. Every time I log on I get a pop-up for 3.5% AA munis, which even with the LLC tax rate is the equivalent of 50% more yield than with the 10 year treasury. If purchased at the 30% tax rate 67% higher yield than the 10 year Treasury. That is insanely high for munis and unsustainable for effectively all Blue states this year. That is an unknown higher rate of relocation of industry to the red edge.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

We are nearly below 4% UE already and the Atlanta fed is predicting 5.4% GDP growth for the first qtr so that horse has left the barn.

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

 

[DarkFury]

And at 5.4 we have inflation unless the government profit takes. A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance. Your social programs should be used for mild braking NOT an economic driver.

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

A good economic brake would be to increase SS by 1.9 percent to keep the balance.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

How is "paying an investment" going to be a brake on the economy?

 

[william the wie]

Three types of entitlement reform are needed:

Abolishing the restrictions on hours and wages 62-65.

Raising the contribution caps for working for someone else to offset a reduction in added self employment taxes.

Reduce or eliminate the minimum withdrawals from 401ks/IRAs starting at age 70 so there will be larger estates to help the heirs.

 

[DarkFury]

It will put cash in the lower end. Not to many grandma's sending money to Hamas you know. 95% of that money will go directly into the local economy. See that's where a lot of inflation really hurts. The more money you keep lower local the more you can remove from welfare.

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

How is "paying an investment" going to be a brake on the economy?

Democrats use Social Programs as drivers and fail. The idea is to place that money back in the economy where it takes the longest to reach the top. Unlike overseas spending which never gets there thus no value on it. Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Just compare the investments. A one time bail out of car companies. Who benefited? Unions .
A one time bonus check to SS? Who benefits? Every local mom and pop withing 30 miles of that check.
I'm not saying welfare here, that's a liberal rat hole. I'm saying retired and honestly disabled

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

It will put cash in the lower end.

How is handing out larger government checks going to be a brake on the economy?

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

How is "paying an investment" going to be a brake on the economy?

Democrats use Social Programs as drivers and fail. The idea is to place that money back in the economy where it takes the longest to reach the top. Unlike overseas spending which never gets there thus no value on it. Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Just compare the investments. A one time bail out of car companies. Who benefited? Unions .
A one time bonus check to SS? Who benefits? Every local mom and pop withing 30 miles of that check.
I'm not saying welfare here, that's a liberal rat hole. I'm saying retired and honestly disabled

Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Which would boost the economy, not put a brake on the economy.

 

[DarkFury]

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy. You can't increase the tax refund without over stimulation of the other. So instead of profit taking you reinvest that cash lower and let it work up.
By the time a dollar is spent for the 5th time it's all gone to government anyway.

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

How is "paying an investment" going to be a brake on the economy?

Democrats use Social Programs as drivers and fail. The idea is to place that money back in the economy where it takes the longest to reach the top. Unlike overseas spending which never gets there thus no value on it. Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Just compare the investments. A one time bail out of car companies. Who benefited? Unions .
A one time bonus check to SS? Who benefits? Every local mom and pop withing 30 miles of that check.
I'm not saying welfare here, that's a liberal rat hole. I'm saying retired and honestly disabled

Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Which would boost the economy, not put a brake on the economy.

It's a economic brake because it's a controlled release. It's a much slower form of boost. And it's directed at the NON ILLEGAL community. You want control of all three branches of government for the next 50 years guaranteed? Do that one time! You want to lay down a historical ass whipping on Democrats? One time is all it takes! You let Pelousi and Chuckles fight that shit! It's controlled braking. Diverting funds to a slower but stable track.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Wage growth and falling unemployment is going to over heat the economy.

So will increasing the size of entitlement checks.

No, that's paying a investment.

How is "paying an investment" going to be a brake on the economy?

Democrats use Social Programs as drivers and fail. The idea is to place that money back in the economy where it takes the longest to reach the top. Unlike overseas spending which never gets there thus no value on it. Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Just compare the investments. A one time bail out of car companies. Who benefited? Unions .
A one time bonus check to SS? Who benefits? Every local mom and pop withing 30 miles of that check.
I'm not saying welfare here, that's a liberal rat hole. I'm saying retired and honestly disabled

Locally placed spending does work it way through the system. .

Which would boost the economy, not put a brake on the economy.

It's a economic brake because it's a controlled release. It's a much slower form of boost. And it's directed at the NON ILLEGAL community. You want control of all three branches of government for the next 50 years guaranteed? Do that one time! You want to lay down a historical ass whipping on Democrats? One time is all it takes! You let Pelousi and Chuckles fight that shit! It's controlled braking. Diverting funds to a slower but stable track.

It's a economic brake because it's a controlled release.

Giving people money doesn't put a brake on the economy.