Where did the 0.3% drop in unemployment come from?

[Quantum Windbag]

I am sure all the math geeks out there are going to love this, the other 99% of posters here are simply going to fall in along party lines.

the 7.8% number comes from the U-3 index. I have no idea why this is the one that the media always fixates on, but it is, so it is the number we get. That dropped to to its lowest level since Obama has been in office. This would have been a good sign if it happened in April of 2009, and would have been an OK sign if it had happened in December, but coming a full 44 months into his term it can only be seen as a really small step in the right direction, and something that is long overdue.

The problem many people had when the numbers came out was how an increase of 114,000 jobs. which was fewer than were added last month, resulted in a 0.3% change in the numbers. Some people, who are less inclined to dig into the numbers, jumped to the conclusion that somebody fudged the numbers to make Obama look good. Given that the BLS has an unusual tendency to overestimate unemployment and revise it downward over the last 4 years I can see why they might jump that way.

I think they are wrong, even though I know it could be done if someone wanted to.

The numbers were interesting so I looked at the U-6, which is unemployed and underemployed, as well as marginally attached, stayed the same at 14.7%. That eliminated the idea that a lot of people just gave up in finding a job, but still did not explain the change in the U-3. More digging was obviously required.

The civilian participation rate rose 0.1% to 63.6%, which is where it was in 1982, and barely above the 31 year low set last month.

The number of unemployed dropped 456,000 from last month, yet only 114,00 got a new job. That means 342,000 left the workforce last month, but the household survey reports that the number of people with jobs rose by 873,000. it was getting harder to dismiss the claims that someone fudged the numbers.

It took a while for me to find the answer, mostly because I have never been through the BLS reports that far down before. It was an educational experience, and lots of fun. It turns out that the largest driver of the change in the U-3, and the reason for the household survey report, was a dramatic increase in the part time jobs.

It turns out that Obama has finally found a way to get people back to work, give them a part time job.

 

[Plasmaball]

My pants, someone has to put the ladies to work.

 

[Caroljo]

Right....and we're more than likely STILL supporting all these part-timers. You can't live with a family on those wages. But Obama's getting praise for this! Lol!

 

[PredFan]

I am sure all the math geeks out there are going to love this, the other 99% of posters here are simply going to fall in along party lines.

the 7.8% number comes from the U-3 index. I have no idea why this is the one that the media always fixates on, but it is, so it is the number we get. That dropped to to its lowest level since Obama has been in office. This would have been a good sign if it happened in April of 2009, and would have been an OK sign if it had happened in December, but coming a full 44 months into his term it can only be seen as a really small step in the right direction, and something that is long overdue.

The problem many people had when the numbers came out was how an increase of 114,000 jobs. which was fewer than were added last month, resulted in a 0.3% change in the numbers. Some people, who are less inclined to dig into the numbers, jumped to the conclusion that somebody fudged the numbers to make Obama look good. Given that the BLS has an unusual tendency to overestimate unemployment and revise it downward over the last 4 years I can see why they might jump that way.

I think they are wrong, even though I know it could be done if someone wanted to.

The numbers were interesting so I looked at the U-6, which is unemployed and underemployed, as well as marginally attached, stayed the same at 14.7%. That eliminated the idea that a lot of people just gave up in finding a job, but still did not explain the change in the U-3. More digging was obviously required.

The civilian participation rate rose 0.1% to 63.6%, which is where it was in 1982, and barely above the 31 year low set last month.

The number of unemployed dropped 456,000 from last month, yet only 114,00 got a new job. That means 342,000 left the workforce last month, but the household survey reports that the number of people with jobs rose by 873,000. it was getting harder to dismiss the claims that someone fudged the numbers.

It took a while for me to find the answer, mostly because I have never been through the BLS reports that far down before. It was an educational experience, and lots of fun. It turns out that the largest driver of the change in the U-3, and the reason for the household survey report, was a dramatic increase in the part time jobs.

It turns out that Obama has finally found a way to get people back to work, give them a part time job.

Two words:

Seasonal Hiring.

 

[Wry Catcher]

The better question Windbag is where did the jobs go?

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

It's not too hard to figure the UE rate at 7.8% follows a trend in the table linked above. Efforts to spin a negative would be humorous if they were not so unpatriotic.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

The better question Windbag is where did the jobs go?

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

It's not too hard to figure the UE rate at 7.8% follows a trend in the table linked above. Efforts to spin a negative would be humorous if they were not so unpatriotic.

What are you trying to say here? All those years of Clinton-Bush outsourcing jobs leading to lower unemployment rates finally caught up with us?

 

[ScienceRocks]

It came out of thin air.

 

[Katzndogz]

It could well have come from obama eliminating the work requirement for welfare resulting in tens of thousands of people who were required to register for work suddenly dropping out of the work force.

 

[Katzndogz]

The better question Windbag is where did the jobs go?

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

It's not too hard to figure the UE rate at 7.8% follows a trend in the table linked above. Efforts to spin a negative would be humorous if they were not so unpatriotic.

What are you trying to say here? All those years of Clinton-Bush outsourcing jobs leading to lower unemployment rates finally caught up with us?

How did the government outsource even a single job? Did it order companies to move off shore. So far, only obama has helped companies move out of the country with his Trans Pacific Trade Partnership providing support for companies doing business in the pacific rim.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

It is certainly a strange paradox considering GDP is crawling at a snail pace at 1.3 percent.

 

[Oddball]

It is certainly a strange paradox considering GDP is crawling at a snail pace at 1.3 percent.

Look for that to be "unexpectedly" revised downward.

 

[Interpol]

Well, the 7.8% number was also helped by the fact that upward revisions over the summer were also applied, since something like an extra 40,000 jobs a month were created each of the last few months.

We must pause on the designation of "part-time" worker. Nowadays, many full-time workers are actually classified as part-time.

Why is that? It's part of the business cycle. Many companies that offer full-time employees medical benefits and the like have gone out of their way this millenium to not have to spend anything on employees, and piling those folks in as part-timers is what they do.

Just ask people who work at Walmart and other such places. A good deal of them work 30+ hours a week, are listed as part-timers, and get no benefits.

They're the people that Romney says should just use the emergency room as their primary method of health care, and they're the people most likely to lose their insurance if they've just been guaranteed insurance even though they have a pre-existing condition.

Of course, emergency room care in place of insurance is by far the most costly around, and part of the big reason why everybody else's health care costs have risen so dramatically.

Other part-time jobs would be like hiring those construction guys for the Keystone pipeline. When those jobs are created, they're all listed as part-timers even though they'll be on the job more than full-time for those weeks or months that they're at it.

The jobs report is another reminder that we're out of the ditch, avoided further damage, are back on the road, going in the right direction, but not as fast as we'd like to see.

 

[Darkwind]

The better question Windbag is where did the jobs go?

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

It's not too hard to figure the UE rate at 7.8% follows a trend in the table linked above. Efforts to spin a negative would be humorous if they were not so unpatriotic.

Funny coming from an America hater.

 

[Oddball]

Well, the 7.8% number was also helped by the fact that upward revisions over the summer were also applied, since something like an extra 40,000 jobs a month were created each of the last few months.

We must pause on the designation of "part-time" worker. Nowadays, many full-time workers are actually classified as part-time.

Why is that? It's part of the business cycle. Many companies that offer full-time employees medical benefits and the like have gone out of their way this millenium to not have to spend anything on employees, and piling those folks in as part-timers is what they do.

Just ask people who work at Walmart and other such places. A good deal of them work 30+ hours a week, are listed as part-timers, and get no benefits.

They're the people that Romney says should just use the emergency room as their primary method of health care, and they're the people most likely to lose their insurance if they've just been guaranteed insurance even though they have a pre-existing condition.

Of course, emergency room care in place of insurance is by far the most costly around, and part of the big reason why everybody else's health care costs have risen so dramatically.

Other part-time jobs would be like hiring those construction guys for the Keystone pipeline. When those jobs are created, they're all listed as part-timers even though they'll be on the job more than full-time for those weeks or months that they're at it.

The jobs report is another reminder that we're out of the ditch, avoided further damage, are back on the road, going in the right direction, but not as fast as we'd like to see.

Baghdad Bob, izzat you?

 

[ScienceRocks]

It is certainly a strange paradox considering GDP is crawling at a snail pace at 1.3 percent.

Look for that to be "unexpectedly" revised downward.

The only economic model that seems to work is the China, U.A.E, ect. One that builds infrastructure and invests within ones nation. Some of those economys are growing at 7-10 percent per year.

We need a capitalist China model.

-Rebuild our infrastructure into the 21st century
-Electric grid
-Build the biggest and best once again!
-Yes, double our space program. When did hiring more high paid engineers and scientist become a waste??? China's going to be kicking our fucking ass if we don't.

NOT one damn thing wrong with showing off. Better then half the country being on food stamps.

We need to reform education to push children and moral standards.

 

[Darkwind]

Well, the 7.8% number was also helped by the fact that upward revisions over the summer were also applied, since something like an extra 40,000 jobs a month were created each of the last few months.

We must pause on the designation of "part-time" worker. Nowadays, many full-time workers are actually classified as part-time.

Why is that? It's part of the business cycle. Many companies that offer full-time employees medical benefits and the like have gone out of their way this millenium to not have to spend anything on employees, and piling those folks in as part-timers is what they do.

Just ask people who work at Walmart and other such places. A good deal of them work 30+ hours a week, are listed as part-timers, and get no benefits.

They're the people that Romney says should just use the emergency room as their primary method of health care, and they're the people most likely to lose their insurance if they've just been guaranteed insurance even though they have a pre-existing condition.

Of course, emergency room care in place of insurance is by far the most costly around, and part of the big reason why everybody else's health care costs have risen so dramatically.

Other part-time jobs would be like hiring those construction guys for the Keystone pipeline. When those jobs are created, they're all listed as part-timers even though they'll be on the job more than full-time for those weeks or months that they're at it.

The jobs report is another reminder that we're out of the ditch, avoided further damage, are back on the road, going in the right direction, but not as fast as we'd like to see.

Too funny.

I'm old enough to remember a time when the individual provided for his or her family's healthcare; the employer was not involved.

It has been an aberration that the past 40+ years that employers pick up healthcare insurance. Prior to this phenomenon, healthcare was paid for out of the wages that the employee earned.

But we can't have people taking care of themselves or their own, now can we? Its the responsibility of 'SOME ONE ELSE' to take care of us.

 

[francoHFW]

Since health insurance became widespread in the 50's and 60's, health costs have skyrocketed, and that's not possible anymore. Only ACA will get ridiculous costs under control. Masscare proves it. DUH.

Most of the UE drop was from July and August jobs being upped 86k. No mystery if you watch a real news, dupes.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Since health insurance became widespread in the 50's and 60's, health costs have skyrocketed, and that's not possible anymore. Only ACA will get ridiculous costs under control. Masscare proves it. DUH.

Most of the UE drop was from July and August jobs being upped 86k. No mystery if you watch a real news, dupes.

I doubt this is the same model as Romneycare....It has some of it, but it's somewhat different.

The cost of healthcare is still going up.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I want our economic recovery to look like China's, U.A.E, India, ect. I want 7-10% growth per year in our GDP.

That means we must rebuild our infrastructure and lead the world in space. We must end all nation building besides our own.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

The better question Windbag is where did the jobs go?

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

It's not too hard to figure the UE rate at 7.8% follows a trend in the table linked above. Efforts to spin a negative would be humorous if they were not so unpatriotic.

What are you trying to say here? All those years of Clinton-Bush outsourcing jobs leading to lower unemployment rates finally caught up with us?

How did the government outsource even a single job? Did it order companies to move off shore. So far, only obama has helped companies move out of the country with his Trans Pacific Trade Partnership providing support for companies doing business in the pacific rim.

You're one of the idiots that keep saying stuff like that, you tell me.