When will the Foreclosure write offs Turn Critical

I still think that the wrong focus is foreclosuregate. The SEIU and other unions have pension money invested in the fraudulent securitization of loans those suits have standing and most financial intermediaries are going to go bye-bye in the resulting mess. If the federal government intervenes that simply triggers the taking clause open and shut.
 
unless the government does what they are threatening to do which is to take control of pensions across the board. No matter how you slice it, it has been clear for 5 years that few pensions were gonna be able to deliver on their baby boom liabilities.
 
unless the government does what they are threatening to do which is to take control of pensions across the board. No matter how you slice it, it has been clear for 5 years that few pensions were gonna be able to deliver on their baby boom liabilities.
Could be but making love to a 220 volt power socket might turn out to be safer.
 
unless the government does what they are threatening to do which is to take control of pensions across the board. No matter how you slice it, it has been clear for 5 years that few pensions were gonna be able to deliver on their baby boom liabilities.
Could be but making love to a 220 volt power socket might turn out to be safer.

It's a real mess but based on political rumors, some very real discussion in DC and his treatment of the auto industry restructuring I could easily see Obama taking a top down/top down approach to this pension fund mess by taking control of pensions to preempt the fallout.

This is a golden opportunity and it really matches what he has done so far. AND he would have a lotta backing from people in high places!

It just is inconceivable that this whole mess can be allowed to play out in ordinary legal fashion. Too many important people at risk, too many debilitating economic downsides.

This absolutely has to be handled by bold fiat resolution.


But what will he do? Oh how the mind squirms trying to imagine how they will "Never let a serious crisis go to waste". Google
 
That would be suicidal any time before the new congress is sworn in, it is an engraved invitation to the GOP to defund his entire agenda and be heroes for doing so.
 
That would be suicidal any time before the new congress is sworn in, it is an engraved invitation to the GOP to defund his entire agenda and be heroes for doing so.

a lot of those who will be in the cross hairs of a foreclosure unwinding are republicans. 1000s of republicans, VIPs. I think you could find as much support for such an effort as there was for the secret bill that passed both houses almost unanimously.
 
The big secret of foreclosuregate is that Wall St. is dying. Old Wall St. was and is an information exchange even more than a securities exchange. As information costs decline so will Wall St. Layoffs in the 80-100K following bonus distributions were being predicted prior to this story taking off. Stock and bond underwriting by private placement or Dutch auction are becoming more common. Half the reason for the failure of Lehman Brothers was that too much information was available to everybody.
 
GHook93 said:
Percentage Blame Game:
Government (including FM/FM) - 60% (Clinton - 80%; Bush 20%)
Banks - 25%
Wall Street - 10%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%

Correction: Clinton = 20%; Bush = 80%
Wall Street = 90%

Prior to 2003, the foreclosure rate was about average. After Bush signed the American Dream Act, he opened the floodgate to every storefront mortgage office to lure in minorities. Wall Street investment banks bought those mortgages from small banks and mortgage companies, packaged them into securities, and bought and sold those packages as a single investment. The rest is history.

President Bush Signs American Dream Downpayment Act of 2003
The rate of homeownership in America now stands a record high of 68.4 percent. Yet there is room for improvement. The rate of homeownership amongst minorities is below 50 percent. And that's not right, and this country needs to do something about it. We need to -- (applause.) We need to close the minority homeownership gap in America so more citizens have the satisfaction and mobility that comes from owning your own home, from owning a piece of the future of America.

Last year I set a goal to add 5.5 million new minority homeowners in America by the end of the decade. That is an attainable goal; that is an essential goal. And we're making progress toward that goal. In the past 18 months, more than 1 million minority families have become homeowners. (Applause.) And there's more that we can do to achieve the goal. The law I sign today will help us build on this progress in a very practical way.

Many people are able to afford a monthly mortgage payment, but are unable to make the down payment. So this legislation will authorize $200 million per year in down payment assistance to at least 40,000 low-income families. These funds will help American families achieve their goals, and at the same time, strengthen our communities.
 
Thanks for the video kissmy. I hope this does not sound smart ass but if I could go to my Yahoo bar and get 80% of the same story about two weeks ago then why didn't the MSM?

It's always been there. ALWAYS!!!! The first major reports in MSM about the debacle began emerging right after the demise of Bear-Stearns, the first to go down, in March of 2008. You just weren't looking.

The recent foreclosure mess is something newly discovered, and thereafter reported. It seems the banks (or whomever) were rubber stamping foreclosures in the same way they rubber stamped the mortgage applications.
 
It is all coming apart for foreclosuregate.

BoA resumed foreclosures in 23 states and says all but 30,000 of their foreclosures in process will be unaffected while the rest will only be delayed by a few months.

And the CDO market for these toxic mortgage bundles has still not dropped even 1% of it's value before the scandal broke. Most of the information about foreclosuregate has been in the public domain for several years.

Bank stocks have taken a hit tho. It looks like this may have been exaggerated.
 
GHook93 said:
Percentage Blame Game:
Government (including FM/FM) - 60% (Clinton - 80%; Bush 20%)
Banks - 25%
Wall Street - 10%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%

Correction: Clinton = 20%; Bush = 80%
Wall Street = 90%

Prior to 2003, the foreclosure rate was about average. After Bush signed the American Dream Act, he opened the floodgate to every storefront mortgage office to lure in minorities. Wall Street investment banks bought those mortgages from small banks and mortgage companies, packaged them into securities, and bought and sold those packages as a single investment. The rest is history.

President Bush Signs American Dream Downpayment Act of 2003
The rate of homeownership in America now stands a record high of 68.4 percent. Yet there is room for improvement. The rate of homeownership amongst minorities is below 50 percent. And that's not right, and this country needs to do something about it. We need to -- (applause.) We need to close the minority homeownership gap in America so more citizens have the satisfaction and mobility that comes from owning your own home, from owning a piece of the future of America.

Last year I set a goal to add 5.5 million new minority homeowners in America by the end of the decade. That is an attainable goal; that is an essential goal. And we're making progress toward that goal. In the past 18 months, more than 1 million minority families have become homeowners. (Applause.) And there's more that we can do to achieve the goal. The law I sign today will help us build on this progress in a very practical way.

Many people are able to afford a monthly mortgage payment, but are unable to make the down payment. So this legislation will authorize $200 million per year in down payment assistance to at least 40,000 low-income families. These funds will help American families achieve their goals, and at the same time, strengthen our communities.

I don't mean to be critical of your post in any way.

But the fact of the matter is that Fannie and Freddie, VA/FHA , were all founded to help poorer Americans buy homes. That has been the public policy of every president since Truman.

The partisan spin employed by both sides to amass a one sided argument that only the other party caused this is the stuff of lying liars and the lying mothers who spawned them.

Anytime somebody starts spamming a one sided diatribe about the cause of these loans to low income American I scroll in 5th gear and write them off as full of shit, or too stupid to know better.

The USA is unique among nations in that we began defining citizenship and liberty itself as conditional on property ownership. Every man and his castle and all that. So more than anybody on earth sharing in our national dream, or American dream has always been as much about home ownership as it has been about anything.

Any president who wasn't part of that meme was an anti American commie. It makes no difference whatsoever which party they were invested in.

NONE of that is the point. Who enabled Wall Street to cause this mess? THAT IS the point!
 
GHook93 said:
Percentage Blame Game:
Government (including FM/FM) - 60% (Clinton - 80%; Bush 20%)
Banks - 25%
Wall Street - 10%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%

Correction: Clinton = 20%; Bush = 80%
Wall Street = 90%

here ya go....back to square one.

The Trillion-Dollar Bank Shakedown That Bodes Ill for Cities by Howard Husock, City Journal Winter 2000

HUD Scandals | Downsizing the Federal Government

my estimate-
Clinton - 45%
Bush 20%
Banks - 15%
Wall Street - 20%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%
 
Property ownership is not a right. If you have property, government can't take it, but government doesn't owe you property if you can't afford it.

Worthless mortgages backed by various GSEs and government agencies caused this mess.
 
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The big secret of foreclosuregate is that Wall St. is dying. Old Wall St. was and is an information exchange even more than a securities exchange. As information costs decline so will Wall St. Layoffs in the 80-100K following bonus distributions were being predicted prior to this story taking off. Stock and bond underwriting by private placement or Dutch auction are becoming more common. Half the reason for the failure of Lehman Brothers was that too much information was available to everybody.

Then there is China poised to first become the financial capital of the SE pacific, then the Pacific, then who knows.

American investors as well as other foreign investors are already abandoning the US due not only to diminishing returns in developed economies but also because the US mortgage scams screwed half the world.

They no longer trust us or our asset offerings.
 
Property ownership is not a right. If you have property, government can't take it, but government doesn't owe you property if you can't afford it.

Worthless mortgages backed by various GSEs and government agencies caused this mess.

Bullshit. You are just a partisan hack who is more concerned about your puny little ideologies than you are about learning from this process and building a better nation.

And while property ownership actually IS a right enshrined in our national tradition and policies you are correct, nobody get's property free. You have to pay to play. Nobody anywhere is disputing that.

But what the hell, we don't even honor the value of citizenship anymore. What's a few hundred thousand fraudulent mortgages designed to scam the borrowers and pension funds in a nation as large as ours?

My associates and myself knew that the derivatives bubble sharks were targeting the pensions since 2003. That's why anybody could start up a hedge fund. You could even buy kits online in 2005.
 
GHook93 said:
Percentage Blame Game:
Government (including FM/FM) - 60% (Clinton - 80%; Bush 20%)
Banks - 25%
Wall Street - 10%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%

Correction: Clinton = 20%; Bush = 80%
Wall Street = 90%

here ya go....back to square one.

The Trillion-Dollar Bank Shakedown That Bodes Ill for Cities by Howard Husock, City Journal Winter 2000

HUD Scandals | Downsizing the Federal Government

my estimate-
Clinton - 45%
Bush 20%
Banks - 15%
Wall Street - 20%
Consumers/Mortgagee - 5%

I think you placed far too much weight on the partisans, and not nearly enough on the actual criminals, but I gave you thanks for recognizing that the chickens don't trap the foxes into eating them.
 
One of the biggest problems out there, and nobody talks about it much, was the deregulation at the SEC that relaxed the capital requirements at the 5 biggest investment firms, and effectively outsourced the compliance to the 5 banks themselves.

Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control. The agency’s failure to follow through on those decisions also explains why Washington regulators did not see what was coming.

On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.

They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary.

A lone dissenter — a software consultant and expert on risk management — weighed in from Indiana with a two-page letter to warn the commission that the move was a grave mistake. He never heard back from Washington.

One commissioner, Harvey J. Goldschmid, questioned the staff about the consequences of the proposed exemption. It would only be available for the largest firms, he was reassuringly told — those with assets greater than $5 billion.

“We’ve said these are the big guys,” Mr. Goldschmid said, provoking nervous laughter, “but that means if anything goes wrong, it’s going to be an awfully big mess.”

Mr. Goldschmid, an authority on securities law from Columbia, was a behind-the-scenes adviser in 2002 to Senator Paul S. Sarbanes when he rewrote the nation’s corporate laws after a wave of accounting scandals. “Do we feel secure if there are these drops in capital we really will have investor protection?” Mr. Goldschmid asked. A senior staff member said the commission would hire the best minds, including people with strong quantitative skills to parse the banks’ balance sheets.

Annette L. Nazareth, the head of market regulation, reassured the commission that under the new rules, the companies for the first time could be restricted by the commission from excessively risky activity. She was later appointed a commissioner and served until January 2008.

“I’m very happy to support it,” said Commissioner Roel C. Campos, a former federal prosecutor and owner of a small radio broadcasting company from Houston, who then deadpanned: “And I keep my fingers crossed for the future.”

The proceeding was sparsely attended. None of the major media outlets, including The New York Times, covered it.

After 55 minutes of discussion, which can now be heard on the Web sites of the agency and The Times, the chairman, William H. Donaldson, a veteran Wall Street executive, called for a vote. It was unanimous. The decision, changing what was known as the net capital rule, was completed and published in The Federal Register a few months later.

With that, the five big independent investment firms were unleashed.

In loosening the capital rules, which are supposed to provide a buffer in turbulent times, the agency also decided to rely on the firms’ own computer models for determining the riskiness of investments, essentially outsourcing the job of monitoring risk to the banks themselves.

Over the following months and years, each of the firms would take advantage of the looser rules. At Bear Stearns, the leverage ratio — a measurement of how much the firm was borrowing compared to its total assets — rose sharply, to 33 to 1. In other words, for every dollar in equity, it had $33 of debt. The ratios at the other firms also rose significantly.

The 2004 decision for the first time gave the S.E.C. a window on the banks’ increasingly risky investments in mortgage-related securities.

But the agency never took true advantage of that part of the bargain. The supervisory program under Mr. Cox, who arrived at the agency a year later, was a low priority.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/business/03sec.html?_r=1

This is why we had to bail out the banks. The SEC let them take on too much debt (a control mechanism added after the great depression, and the old limit was 15:1, and it was relaxed to 45:1), and then did not follow through under Bush's appointee, Chris Cox (repub).

By allowing the big banks to get over leveraged, it did not take much in the way of defaults for them to run out of capital and become insolvent.

If you don't think this had an affect on subprime issuance, or that the big 5 created the demand, go look at the graph on this page, titled: "A credit cloud", and see the affect:
The Big Picture

It was also the banks "new" ability to take on so much more toxic debt that created the demand for the liar loan mortgages, so they could wash them at the ratings agencies, make garbage into AAA, and sell it to unsuspecting folks like it was safe.

Cox said he was surprised the banks didn't regulate themselves and put themselves into such a precarious spot that they went out of business. It shows that these excessive compensation packages for the officers of the company incent the wrong behavior. They will make themselves rich if at all possible, even if it means destroying the company, their industry, and throwing the country into a depression. All they care about is the 4 years required to become rock star rich, and that's it. (See Dick Fuld at Lehman Bros., compensation = $450 million on the 5 years preceeding bankruptcy and screwing all non-insider shareholders, or Stanley O'Neal at Merrill Lynch, or Chuck Prince at CitiGroup, all wealthy, all of their non-insider shareholders screwed)
 
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The title insurance mess is becoming a bigger player in foreclosuregate. All told at least one GDP reduction in asset values is going to be spawned by this mess. And by the way Thornberg Mortgage not Bear Sterns was the first shoe to drop.
 

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