When the El Nino fades....

[IanC]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

I am more than willing to be shown the location of the CRN graph that includes Alaska and Hawaii. got it for me? no? then quit saying Im hiding something that does not exist, at least not to the best of my knowledge.

how exactly does a graph of the Alaskan region, minus the warm '30s, add to the discussion of the CRN dataset?

who is being misleading here? I think it might be someone with the same initials as the state he lives in.

 

[Old Rocks]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Funny..

Old Crock uses the highly adjusted and UHI biased HCN..

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Upper left corner, Alaska Climate Research Center, upper right corner, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

You are a liar, No Credibility Billy.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Fades? It has to get here first. In So Cal, where El Nino's are suppose to shine, it's been crickets

-Geaux

You are telling me it is cool in California at present? And the effects of the El Nino are hardly over. We, here in Oregon, have been getting your rain and snow. As well as warm temperatures. Going to be in the 60's for most of this week. Couple of areas on the coast hit 70+ yesterday.

Wow, rain and snow in Oregon in winter.
Damn those coal mines!

 

[IanC]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Funny..

Old Crock uses the highly adjusted and UHI biased HCN..

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Upper left corner, Alaska Climate Research Center, upper right corner, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

You are a liar, No Credibility Billy.

I went through this whole thing with crick. starting the graph at 1949 is misleading. it cuts off the historically warm years for the Arctic in the 30's/40's.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well now, looking at both charts, F scale, they appear to agree very closely. In fact, are probably the same graph. So, on the one you presented, 1989 was about 3.5, and about 1925 was about 3.8.

2014 was about 4.7. That is a rather large increase.

Arctic Report Card - Surface Air Temperature - Overland, et al.

Surface Air Temperature
J. Overland1, E. Hanna2, I. Hanssen-Bauer3, S. -J. Kim4,
J. E. Walsh5, M. Wang6, U. S. Bhatt7, R. L. Thoman8
1NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, USA
2Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
3Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
4Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Republic of Korea
5International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
6Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
7Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
8NOAA, National Weather Service, Fairbanks, AK, USA
November 17, 2015
Highlights

• Average annual surface air temperature anomaly (+1.3°C) over land north of 60°N for October 2014-September 2015 was the highest in the observational record beginning in 1900; this represents a 2.9°C increase since the beginning of the 20th Century.
• Average air temperature anomalies in all seasons between October 2014 and September 2015 were generally positive throughout the Arctic, with extensive regions exceeding +3°C relative to a 1981-2010 baseline.
• Anomalously warm conditions from November 2014 through June 2015 in Alaska were caused by weather patterns that advected warm mid-latitude air northward from the northeast Pacific Ocean. Anomalously warm Arctic conditions during spring (April, May, June) 2015 across central Eurasia were also due to southerly winds.
• Strong connections between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes were also seen in late winter-early spring (February-April) 2015, when cold air advected south-eastward from the central Arctic resulted in major negative temperature anomalies over eastern North America.

 

[jc456]

Neither chart shows 2014 and 2015

and? It shows a pause doesn't it? So there was a pause, doesn't matter 2014 or 2015.

 

[flacaltenn]

After the El Nino the sequence of cooling periods will resume of course. How could it be different?

Gee -- that might be IMPRESSIVE.. IF --- it was an actual temperature chart. But lo and behold -- it's just another Skepshitscience crayon job by the cartoonists that run that site. You really need to "suit up" to even go there..

 

[Crick]

The point of the Skeptical Science graphic linked above is to illustrate denier cherrypicking. Besides, it looks very much like the surface record for that period. Where did you get the idea it was a cartoon?

 

[mamooth]

simple analysis of the trend over the last 30, 50 or 70 years would suggest that the El Nino was more likely to be over 90% responsible for the warming in 2015, against the backdrop of slow and steady CO2 warming.

You misspelled "hilariously botched analysis done by the cranks at WUWT".

So why do you believe the next La Nina will be different from the previous ones? After all, record high temperatures were broken during the previous La Nina phase.

Back in reality, the next La Nina will act much like the last one. Temperatures will drop off a bit from the El Nino high, then slowly climb back up until they beat the old record, even without an El Nino.

 

[IanC]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Funny..

Old Crock uses the highly adjusted and UHI biased HCN..

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Upper left corner, Alaska Climate Research Center, upper right corner, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

You are a liar, No Credibility Billy.

I went through this whole thing with crick. starting the graph at 1949 is misleading. it cuts off the historically warm years for the Arctic in the 30's/40's.

I went back and checked.

IT WAS YOU that I posted up those two graphs for! I put them up as an example of how misleading it was to cherrypick a start date to make the data look scary. And here it is, a month later, and Old Rocks is using the misleading graph to promote fear. Typical.

 

[Billy_Bob]

"The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond." –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016

Source

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. Damn, Silly Billy, you have been stating this since this time last year. You are the world's biggest fool.

 

[IanC]

simple analysis of the trend over the last 30, 50 or 70 years would suggest that the El Nino was more likely to be over 90% responsible for the warming in 2015, against the backdrop of slow and steady CO2 warming.

You misspelled "hilariously botched analysis done by the cranks at WUWT".

So why do you believe the next La Nina will be different from the previous ones? After all, record high temperatures were broken during the previous La Nina phase.

Back in reality, the next La Nina will act much like the last one. Temperatures will drop off a bit from the El Nino high, then slowly climb back up until they beat the old record, even without an El Nino.

As usual, you evade the point. Will climate science say the drop in temp from the next La Nina was only 'assisted' by ENSO? Or wholely attributed to it?

 

[Billy_Bob]

simple analysis of the trend over the last 30, 50 or 70 years would suggest that the El Nino was more likely to be over 90% responsible for the warming in 2015, against the backdrop of slow and steady CO2 warming.

You misspelled "hilariously botched analysis done by the cranks at WUWT".

So why do you believe the next La Nina will be different from the previous ones? After all, record high temperatures were broken during the previous La Nina phase.

Back in reality, the next La Nina will act much like the last one. Temperatures will drop off a bit from the El Nino high, then slowly climb back up until they beat the old record, even without an El Nino.

As usual, you evade the point. Will climate science say the drop in temp from the next La Nina was only 'assisted' by ENSO? Or wholely attributed to it?

Four of five predictions I have read have us taking a step change DOWNWARD late 2016 or mid 2017..

If this happens the pause will become more than 30 years long.. Its going to be real rough for alarmists and CAGW nutters with the temp going totally opposite CO2 levels..

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL. Damn, Silly Billy, you have been stating this since this time last year. You are the world's biggest fool.

Nope.. you got the biggest fool thing locked up tight..

I have 10 predictions from others who are looking at this thing from a realist point of view who agree with my position.

Its really too bad you choose to use adhom attacks rather than dispute the prediction at the link I posted..

 

[mamooth]

El Nino has slain The Blob.

That is, The Blob was caused by the RidiculouslyResilientRidge blocking the normal wind patterns that caused upwelling of cool water in the Gulf of Alaska region. The strong El Nino finally broke that pattern, winds in the region got more back to normal, and The Blob has faded. The first image here is from July 2015, the second from Jan 2016.

 

[elektra]

El Nino has slain The Blob.

That is, The Blob was caused by the RidiculouslyResilientRidge blocking the normal wind patterns that caused upwelling of cool water in the Gulf of Alaska region. The strong El Nino finally broke that pattern, winds in the region got more back to normal, and The Blob has faded. The first image here is from July 2015, the second from Jan 2016.

Nice job Coloring, I know, wow, that is science for you Sky is Falling Kooks.

Pretty colors, thatssssss science!

 

[depotoo]

Which models will be correct or will none?

 

[IanC]

El Nino has slain The Blob.

That is, The Blob was caused by the RidiculouslyResilientRidge blocking the normal wind patterns that caused upwelling of cool water in the Gulf of Alaska region. The strong El Nino finally broke that pattern, winds in the region got more back to normal, and The Blob has faded. The first image here is from July 2015, the second from Jan 2016.

Nice job Coloring, I know, wow, that is science for you Sky is Falling Kooks.

Pretty colors, thatssssss science!

Why are you against science taking measurements? Nature gave us yet another unpredictable occurrence to decipher. Surely it will add to the bank of evidence that will help us to understand what is happening.

 

[elektra]

El Nino has slain The Blob.

That is, The Blob was caused by the RidiculouslyResilientRidge blocking the normal wind patterns that caused upwelling of cool water in the Gulf of Alaska region. The strong El Nino finally broke that pattern, winds in the region got more back to normal, and The Blob has faded. The first image here is from July 2015, the second from Jan 2016.

Nice job Coloring, I know, wow, that is science for you Sky is Falling Kooks.

Pretty colors, thatssssss science!

Why are you against science taking measurements? Nature gave us yet another unpredictable occurrence to decipher. Surely it will add to the bank of evidence that will help us to understand what is happening.

Why am I against these people measuring ice? Seems like something I could have my 10 year old do. What will learn, it is changing? It is not changing? It will cost us how much money? And if we can not stop this, what can we stop the government from doing?