When the El Nino fades....

[IanC]

CO2 is a constant warming pressure related to the amount of the gas in our atmosphere. the amount and increase of CO2 is known to a high degree of accuracy, at least on a yearly average basis. there are no sudden gusts of CO2 that can cause a spike in temperatures, just a relentless warming pressure over the decades that is masked by natural factors, and perhaps augmented or diminished by varying feedbacks.

so, what will happen when the naturally occurring El Nino fades into neutrality or even dips into a La Nina?

the warmers have claimed that 2015 is the warmest year evahhhhhhh, and that the current El Nino only gave it a boost of ten percent or less. simple analysis of the trend over the last 30, 50 or 70 years would suggest that the El Nino was more likely to be over 90% responsible for the warming in 2015, against the backdrop of slow and steady CO2 warming.

who will be right? the warmers who think this was catch up for the last decade and a half of little warming? or the skeptics who believe that temps will fall as soon as the El Nino fades, and perhaps fall a lot if we go into a strong La Nina like what has happened after most of the other super El Ninos in history?

oh well, we'll see. I guess I'm just a contrarian but I did win a few bucks betting on Denver's defense. Now Peyton can retire in style with the extra 2 mil that Von put in his pocket for winning SB50. hahahaha

 

[Geaux4it]

Fades? It has to get here first. In So Cal, where El Nino's are suppose to shine, it's been crickets

-Geaux

 

[IanC]

well, the definition of ENSO doesnt actually include California.

I am either pleased or sorry for you, depending on whether you wanted the weather, or not. Or not.

 

[Freewill]

Here is my observation. I go a NOAA site to look up US temperature trends. No more than a year ago I would look up the last 15 or so years and a definite cooling trend was indicated. But now, not so much, now. Which means they changed the data.

Obviously that does not mean they are doing something wrong. But what it does mean that even when their own data indicates cooling, in the US, they preach the opposite. So all the arguments for warming, at least in the US, was based on faulty data, just as was said. We can only presume that the data was made more correct. But considering it was obviously wrong for many years how can it be trusted?

 

[Old Rocks]

Fades? It has to get here first. In So Cal, where El Nino's are suppose to shine, it's been crickets

-Geaux

You are telling me it is cool in California at present? And the effects of the El Nino are hardly over. We, here in Oregon, have been getting your rain and snow. As well as warm temperatures. Going to be in the 60's for most of this week. Couple of areas on the coast hit 70+ yesterday.

 

[Old Rocks]

Here is my observation. I go a NOAA site to look up US temperature trends. No more than a year ago I would look up the last 15 or so years and a definite cooling trend was indicated. But now, not so much, now. Which means they changed the data.

Obviously that does not mean they are doing something wrong. But what it does mean that even when their own data indicates cooling, in the US, they preach the opposite. So all the arguments for warming, at least in the US, was based on faulty data, just as was said. We can only presume that the data was made more correct. But considering it was obviously wrong for many years how can it be trusted?

Well, if you lived on the West Coast, there has been a definate warming over the last couple of decades. Thus far, we have had a week of winter this winter. Otherwise the weather has been either like fall or early spring. And the East Coast has been getting wild swings in the weather this year. Enjoy.

 

[cnm]

After the El Nino the sequence of cooling periods will resume of course. How could it be different?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

After the El Nino the sequence of cooling periods will resume of course. How could it be different?

Either chart shows no warming since 1995

 

[Old Rocks]

Neither chart shows 2014 and 2015

 

[IanC]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

 

[cnm]

Either chart shows no warming since 1995

How could it if the history of global warming is a sequence of periods of cooling?

 

[cnm]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming.

Really? Must be a hoax then.

 

[cnm]

Just for laughs...

sauce

 

[Old Rocks]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Neither chart shows 2014 and 2015

Oh the faked "add in the 93% of the excess heat trapped by the deep ocean" scam years

yeah, sure

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region 3-4

Region 3

Region 1-2

From all indications its fading extremely fast as compared to other historical El Niño's. The question is, will it actually remain in the atmosphere long enough to stop the pause? It was dang close this month and -0.03 deg C from creating a 0.01 degree rise in temperature.. (I know the error bars make this statistically irrelevant)

Chances are it will cause the pause to end for a short time. However, the pause will resume as the forming La Niña takes hold later this year. the cold pools amassing are huge (and very deep) and indicators are it will be a very large La Niña.

Even the BLOB has ceased to exist...

 

[Billy_Bob]

the US pristine network doesnt show much warming. anyone wanna fetch the latest data?

Very nice, Ian. Purposely left out Alaska, didn't you. Now if you included Alaska, that chart would show a definate warming for the last 20 years. The alteration of the jet stream by the open water in the Arctic has created a situation where our East Coast gets cooled, while the West Coast warms. For the lower 48.

Temperature Changes in Alaska | Alaska Climate Research Center

Funny..

Old Crock uses the highly adjusted and UHI biased HCN..

 

[depotoo]

Or before 1970...

Neither chart shows 2014 and 2015

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. The threshold for the El Nino is +0.5, the lowest chart, region 1-2, is still at 1.5, three times that. And region 3-4 is still at 2.5, still in the Super El Nino territory. And you have been promising imminent cooling since this time last year. No Credibility Billy.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Climate forecast models were 100% wrong about the impact the warmer waters would have on the US.
They can't even get it right just a few months in advance.