What will the economy be in 2015?

[iamwhatiseem]

What say you?

 

[Zander]

Things will be get better in 2013- right after we retire Obama.

 

[william the wie]

Things will be get better in 2013- right after we retire Obama.

While I agree Obama is a clueless incompetent in economics I don't see any GOP hopefuls who are significantly better more like different delusions and better at administration.

 

[loosecannon]

What say you?

I don't see a significant improvement in the US economy in the near term. Our living standards overall are under huge pressure toward global parity, tho there may be a quintile or two in the US who see an improvement sooner I don't think most of us will reach bottom until after the bulk of the baby boom passes into history.

If we hold together that long.

I believe means exist to promote a different outcome. But those are either off the table or yet to materialize.

But it's cool. We were lucky enough to live while the US was the wealthiest nation in human history. Nothing lasts.

 

[MeadHallPirate]

ahoy iamwhatiseem!

matey, i just wanted to wish yerself and the mighty imperator fair skies and smooth seas.

i liked debatin' both of ye, and miss ye both.

took me a while to find ye, aye it did.

*waves*

- MeadHallPirate

 

[Mr Natural]

Nothing will improve until jobs that people with limited education and skills can do and make decent money doing come back.

 

[william the wie]

Nothing will improve until jobs that people with limited education and skills can do and make decent money doing come back.

The Chinese labor shortage of unskilled workers has already started biting according to CNN money. That problem which is general for Eurasia except the oil rich Middle-East will lead to insourcing to the US. Likewise the industrial base of Mexico is being destroyed by the cartel wars which will also lead to insourcing. I doubt the employment increase will keep pace with population growth but it will fulfill the criteria you have set because labor mobility is so low in the US and no one wants to build factories in high tax states. Many big states now will be small states after the 2020 census and will default. Also there are already 9 years worth of foreclosure in the pipeline and that will have to be resolved as well.

 

[Pepe]

There are just too many variables for me to predict 2015 in other than generalities.

With the coming Muni Bond bust, probable Default on some or all of their Debt by IL and CA, as WTW wrote-9 years of foreclosures which will probably accelerate upwards with the Layoff of a million + Public Sector Workers..................

Continued migration out of the Blue States into the lower taxed States by business..........

Almost certain Retirement age increase to 70 (over 10 years) by 2015 plus Entitlement to Medicare moving in lockstep to 70......................

Increased Personal Bankruptcies will march hand and hand with foreclosures and the subsequent divorce rate moving upwards.

Public Unions finally taking it in the ass with the rest of us by 2015 as reality sets in and Bankruptcy Judges so order...........................

Which leads to a tighter and tighter death spiral....................

Which will lead to the foregone inevitability of "Balkanization" as the Empire implodes.......

 

[B. Kidd]

There are just too many variables for me to predict 2015 in other than generalities.

With the coming Muni Bond bust, probable Default on some or all of their Debt by IL and CA, as WTW wrote-9 years of foreclosures which will probably accelerate upwards with the Layoff of a million + Public Sector Workers..................

Continued migration out of the Blue States into the lower taxed States by business..........

Almost certain Retirement age increase to 70 (over 10 years) by 2015 plus Entitlement to Medicare moving in lockstep to 70......................

Increased Personal Bankruptcies will march hand and hand with foreclosures and the subsequent divorce rate moving upwards.

Public Unions finally taking it in the ass with the rest of us by 2015 as reality sets in and Bankruptcy Judges so order...........................

Which leads to a tighter and tighter death spiral....................

Which will lead to the foregone inevitability of "Balkanization" as the Empire implodes.......

Pepe, interesting that you started your response with the coming muni bond bust. Analyst Meredith Whitney was on a 60 minutes segment last night ('State Defaults: Day of Reckoning') predicting the first round of significant muni defaults occurring this spring 2011 when Fed stimulus funds to the states are exhausted. The gist of the segment underscored the point that muni and eventually state defaults will exponentially wreck the economy much worse than the housing bubble.
Illinois is at the top of the list. It showed that some gas stations in Illinois are no longer letting Illinois State Troopers fuel up as they no longer trust state credit cards.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

ahoy iamwhatiseem!

matey, i just wanted to wish yerself and the mighty imperator fair skies and smooth seas.

i liked debatin' both of ye, and miss ye both.

took me a while to find ye, aye it did.

*waves*

- MeadHallPirate

Hey!!
How are you?
Glad to see you!

 

[ekrem]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

 

[william the wie]

The real wildcard is what will GOP state legislatures take as their goals in reapportionment and there are many possibilities:

Create safe districts for their own radicals or the D radicals or both. Screwing up the D farm team system by radicalizing D legislative and congressional seats as was attempted by the Ds with Ron Paul's congressional district in Texas has greater long term benefit but is more energizing for the opposition in the short run but is more likely to cause splits (Tea Party) in the longrun.

Trying for maximum seats. Backfired for the GOP in PA in 2000 and may backfire elsewhere.

Do a minimax by giving themselves slightly safer seats than the opposition and putting more seats in play in hopes that the Ds are greater opponents of themselves than the GOP can ever be. This seems a safe bet under current circumstances since the D base of activists are currently out of radio contact with reality.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

They learned from General Motors.
It is mind boggling how the county and state governments did not do simple math and see the compounding tsunami of coming benefit costs of retiring employees.
Inexcusable. In all honesty, being serious, past state controllers and other high officials in these states should be subpoenaed for misappropriation of public funds and violating public trust.
Just flat out inexcusable to put the states at bankruptcy by building up golden parachute benefit packages for public workers.

 

[B. Kidd]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

Make good use of that popcorn you're munching on and watch the segment on the net.

 

[kwc57]

Who the hell cares, the world ends in 2012!

 

[Pepe]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

Make good use of that popcorn you're munching on and watch the segment on the net.

Right here

 

[uscitizen]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

We been crashin for at least a decade.

Takes a long time for something as massive as the US economy to wind down, but ti will be equally as slow to spin back up even if we do the right things, which I doubt we will.

 

[william the wie]

(...) muni bond bust (...)

Unbelievable how you can train-crash a country in such short timeframe.

We been crashin for at least a decade.

Takes a long time for something as massive as the US economy to wind down, but ti will be equally as slow to spin back up even if we do the right things, which I doubt we will.

More like 40-50 years:

Deteriotation of our capital base began in 1959 with continuous inflation attacking physical capital.

In 1971 Bretton Woods effectively died and the dollar was no longer as good as Gold

 

[JamesInFlorida]

Jobs that are being outsourced overseas aren't coming back. New technology replacing jobs also aren't coming back.

 

[hipeter924]

Regardless of whom has the reigns, it wouldn't be wrong to assume that the US economy might take several decades to recover and become worse along the way.