What will Israel do?

I am not saying they can't. They should and probably will in the future. It sheer numbers.

Whether we like it or not China and India are going to develop rapidly. According to you we shouldn't try to get in on it and make a buck? Thats just bad business.

However, the arguement here is if Iran can survive without selling us oil. They can't. China and India as they are right now can't make up the share that we take in.

Maybe in 10 years they can but not now

no, not to the detriment of our own nation we should not. WHO is making the buck? Our solid middle class that allows us to consume irans oil or that fluid top 2% that have no problem taking off when things get too rough for their dress shoes? No, sir, bad business is forgetting to protect your home for the sake of a rabbit diet starvation cash flow scheme.


And, you are simply wrong. China and India together will more than make up for what we consume after your kind have it's way and the average American can only afford slightly better than the average mexican pauper. Face it, the lower you'd value American labor the less spending potential we have collectively which makes the US less capable of maintaining the dominance necessary to allow the consumption of such a globally lopsided amount of oil. After your kind run us into bankruptcy, well, lets just say it will be ironic as fuck to see opec nations and china doling out the same advice you would give to a UAW member.


Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market
With 1.3 billion people, the People's Republic of China is the world's most populous country and the second largest oil consumer, behind the U.S. In recent years, China has been undergoing a process of industrialization and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With real gross domestic product growing at a rate of 8-10% a year, China's need for energy is projected to increase by 150 percent by 2020. to sustain its growth China requires increasing amounts of oil. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than the U.S.'
Growth in Chinese oil consumption has accelerated mainly because of a large-scale transition away from bicycles and mass transit toward private automobiles, more affordable since China's admission to the World Trade Organization. Consequently, by year 2010 China is expected to have 90 times more cars than in 1990. With automobile numbers growing at 19% a year, projections show that China could surpass the total number of cars in the U.S. by 2030. Another contributor to the sharp increase in automobile sales is the very low price of gasoline in China. Chinese gasoline prices now rank among the lowest in the world for oil-importing countries, and are a third of retail prices in Europe and Japan, where steep taxes are imposed to discourage gasoline use.

Where will China get its oil?
China’s ability to provide for its own needs is limited by the fact that its proven oil reserves are small in relation to its consumption. At current production rates they are likely to last for less than two decades. Though during the 1970s and 1980s China was a net oil exporter, it became a net oil importer in 1993 and is growingly dependent on foreign oil. China currently imports 32% of its oil and is expected to double its need for imported oil between now and 2010. A report by the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2030, Chinese oil imports will equal imports by the U.S. today.
http://www.iags.org/china.htm


China's oil consumption to hit 563M tons in 2020

BEIJING -- China is expected to consume 62.5 percent more oil in 2020 compared with 2006 as fast economic growth will continue to fuel domestic oil demand, says a government think tank.

China's oil consumption would rise from 346.6 million tons in 2006 to 407 million tons in 2010 and 563 million tons in 2020, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast in a new report.

Oil demand would grow by an annual average of 4.5 percent from 2007 to 2010 and an annual average of 3.3 percent from 2010 to 2020, it said.

The rise in refined oil demand would outpace total demand over the next 13 years, with gasoline demand up 5.7 percent annually, helped by a booming automotive industry. Kerosene demand would grow by 5 percent annually and diesel oil 4.2 percent.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-04/08/content_6599920.htm


China's Quest for Oil

The passport on Yang Hua's desk is stamped with visas that would alarm immigration clerks around the world. He showed up in Indonesia two days after the Bali nightclub bombings in 2002. He's logged trips on a moment's notice to Iran, Yemen and Qatar, as well as to the U.S., Australia, Canada, England and Brazil. But Yang doesn't try to hide the substances contained in little glass vials that he brings home from his travels. They're lined up on the windowsill of his Beijing office, affixed with labels such as "Saudi sweet." As senior vice president of China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), Yang is responsible for the state-owned company's efforts to secure oil and gas supplies all over the globe. The samples of crude are souvenirs that testify how far he must roam in his search. "I'd like it if there was oil under Paris," he says, "but I spend my time in less comfortable places."
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,501041025-725174,00.html
 
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lol, dude you are deflecting again.

You are trying to stir up a whole different arguement.

The inital arguement is Iran can't cut off their oil to us because they can't afford it.

As of right now, China and India combined still wouldn't make up the loss in sales.
 
yea dude.. nothing says deflection quite like posting four pieces of evidence that state otherwise by the year 2020.

:thup:
 
yea dude... eleven years is just like a fucking EPOCH! A proverbial fucking era, you might say!

and you are fucking right iran could stop selling us oil if israel were attacked. HELLO. You the fuck made them obliged to sell us anything when the bear and the dragon and the cow are about to fucking explode? I mean, you know... after a whole whopping fucking eleven years....


:thup:
 
The decision over whether or not Israel will launch a military strike against Iranian nuclear sites is a political one. A number of different factors will influence that decision, though. Among them are -

1) With public sources placing the number of sites involved in the Iranian nuclear program between several dozen to over a hundred, do the Israelis have intelligence that allows them to identify the critical sites for targeting?

Iran's air defense systems, the distance involved and the potential geopolitical and military complications that would accompany a series of conventional air strikes precludes a lengthy bombing campaign and repeated sorties.

Accordingly, if the Israelis green light such a strike they must approach it with the thought that it is a singular, one shot opportunity with no window for follow on or subsequent strikes. While there would certainly be multiple targets involved, the strike would be a one time affair.

That being the case, they must have the confidence that they can hit the most critical and integral sites involved with the program and deal the Iranians a crippling, if only temporary, blow.

2) Are the Israelis confident they can handle retaliatory strikes from Iranian clients, Hamas and Hizbullah?

A strike against Iran would be preceded by an Israeli move against Hamas and its' ability to retaliate on behalf of its' Iranian patrons. While some might believe this places the Israelis at a strategic disadvantage by signaling the Iranians of an impending strike, the frequency of Israeli incursions into the Palestinian territories provides relative cover, appearing as nothing more than the usual tit-for-tat between the two belligerents.

3) Is the political window closing in the United States? Worse yet, has it already closed?

As the sands quickly run out on what has become the caretaker Bush administration, can the Israelis count on any meaningful political support from Washington for a strike against Iran?

Beyond the Office of the Vice President, does the Administration have the stomach for one final foreign policy crisis? With reports indicating President Bush refused to green light an Israeli request for Washington's approval of a strike earlier in the year, one wonders if perhaps the doves haven't gained the upper hand over the hawks on the matter.

Then again, there are the potential geopolitical and military ramifications for the US and the world.

Perhaps the realization that American forces and allies would be placed in Iranian cross hairs in the wake of a strike has given the President pause. In addition to this, with oil trading just shy of the $150 a barrel this past summer, an Israeli strike and Iranian retaliation may well have led to a spike that catapulted the price into the stratosphere and past the $200 mark. This would have undoubtedly sent gas well past $5 a gallon, and perhaps as high as $7. That in turn would have tipped what appeared at the time to be a struggling American economy into open recession.

Politically, already an albatross around the neck of Republican congressional candidates and Party standard bearer John McCain, Bush could not afford the price an Israeli strike would extract at the ballot box in the upcoming election.

The other part of the American political question is do the Israelis want to add a foreign policy crisis to the incoming Obama administration's already overflowing plate?

While the Israelis have religiously placed their strategic and national security interests ahead of all other considerations, one wonders if they want to be responsible for the fledgling administration's foreign affairs baptism by fire. Will they gamble bilateral relations with the new White House or will they bide their time to feel out a possible response to a strike later on?

4) Finally, there is the issue of time.

Do the Israelis believe they have time to spare or are the Iranians quickly approaching the point of no return? Can they afford to wait for the Obama administration to get its' sea legs or are the Iranians close to developing a functional and deliverable nuclear weapons capability? If that is the case, time is not on the side of the Israelis and will force their hand sooner rather than later.
 
yea dude... eleven years is just like a fucking EPOCH! A proverbial fucking era, you might say!

and you are fucking right iran could stop selling us oil if israel were attacked. HELLO. You the fuck made them obliged to sell us anything when the bear and the dragon and the cow are about to fucking explode? I mean, you know... after a whole whopping fucking eleven years....


:thup:


lol, you can't stay on topic can you.

We were originally arguing if Isreal attacked Iran tomorrow could Iran afford to not sell us oil, and you go off topic for 11 years from now and monkeys and dragons blah blah blah

I ain't talking about a decade from now.

If Isreal attacked Iran couldn't afford to not sell us oil. You said they will sell to china and india. China and India can't replace the money we generate because they don't use as much.

GO ahead and tell me something about a decade from now please
 
if you can't fathom how i've answered your question about iran's options regarding selling its oil then so be it. I've posted my evidence. where is yours? I mean a DECADE. woooaaaa nelly! it's like a fucking eternity away!
 
yeah a decade is pretty far away if we are talking on the subject that if Isreal attacked, Iran couldn't stop selling us oil TOMORROW!

See the difference?

Tomorrow (very close)
10 years (very far)

Besides in 10 years aren't we going to be rid of our oil dependecy? At least according to your savior
 
Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't works too well with guys that think they have 72 virgins waiting for them.

who are these people who believe that? I don't see any radical Islamic leaders begging to go to Valhalla. I see them getting disturbed individuals to strap on bombs. I see them hiding whenever an Israeli weapon is pointed their way.

MAD works with those leaders and the proof is that they have all yet to take Israel head on. They value life---their own.
 
who are these people who believe that? I don't see any radical Islamic leaders begging to go to Valhalla. I see them getting disturbed individuals to strap on bombs. I see them hiding whenever an Israeli weapon is pointed their way.

MAD works with those leaders and the proof is that they have all yet to take Israel head on. They value life---their own.
That's a good point. But I'm not too sure that's what they believe. I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet my life on it.
 
I think it would be foolish in the long run for Israel to bomb Iran.

Israel has nuclear weapons, and America's nuclear arsenal has their back.

The leadership of Iran, and more importantly the people of Iran, are not suicidal.
 
I think it would be foolish in the long run for Israel to bomb Iran.

Israel has nuclear weapons, and America's nuclear arsenal has their back.

The leadership of Iran, and more importantly the people of Iran, are not suicidal.
true.

btw, isn't it odd that Obama has a pastor for his invocation that has called for the assassination of the Iranian leader? Imagine if another nation had a situation similar? We'd be screaming about what a threat and danger they are.

Sean Hannity insisted that US needs to "take out" Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Warren said he agreed. Hannity asked, "Am I advocating something dark, evil or something righteous?" Warren responded, "Well, actually, the Bible says that evil cannot be negotiated with. In fact, that is the legitimate role of govt."
 

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